PGA Betting Guide for the Charles Schwab Challenge
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below we will cover the best bets for the Charles Schwab Challenge based on current form, course fit, and, of course, the value of their odds. For more info on Colonial Country Club, check out the Course Primer.
Stats are from Fantasy National Golf Club and are for golfers in the field over the last 50 rounds, unless otherwise noted.
At the Top
Justin Rose (+950) - Rose gets the nod over Jon Rahm as the favorite this week. Rahm's Friday struggles at Bethpage Black are enough to override his strong course form (top 5s in back to back years). Rose got the win here last year, and he's simply more reliable than the super-talented Rahm at this stage of his career. Despite sharing win odds, Rahm is definitely a better value for a top 5 or top 10 finish, where he offers better payout than Rose. Rahm is +330 for top 5 and +172 for top 10 vs. Rose's +270 for top 5 and +144 for top 10.
Xander Schauffele and Francesco Molinari (+1700 each) - Eschewing the top dogs this week in favor of X-man and Frankie makes a ton of sense given the value of their price. Both have hoisted a trophy already this year, while Jordan Spieth's course history from before his game took a nosedive places him somehow higher in the market than either Schauffele or Molinari. Xander is third in total strokes gained over his last 50 rounds behind just Rose and Rahm, and his all around game should suit him well at a course that can require strategy and management in addition to shotmaking. Molinari, on the other hand, has shown a propensity to go supernova with his irons and turn every hole into a birdie opportunity. I'd give Moli the slight edge, but you can't go wrong with either of these values.
Bryson DeChambeau (+2900) - DeChambeau entered 2019 looking like a potential challenger for major championships, but has cooled a bit of late, with just one top 25 in six events in the last three months. Despite the cold stretch, Bryson has as much win equity as any player in the field given the run he went on last year. His five worldwide wins in the last 12 months are more than Schauffele has in his career, and Xander is going off at almost double the price. Despite picking up wins this year, Rickie Fowler and Paul Casey have long reputations of close calls. DeChambeau has longer odds than all of them. For reference, he's currently +2900 to win the U.S. freaking Open. Take the value this week.
Scott Piercy (+4600) - Piercy is way overpriced here, but two top-3 finishes before a T41 at the PGA Championship showcase top end form in short supply in this range. One of those high finishes came at another Texas course, when Piercy gained 10.7 strokes tee to green en route to a runner up finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He is eighth in total strokes gained, and the last five winners have been either world class players or long shots, so tread carefully here. Golfers with way longer odds probably have similar true chance to win here.
Si Woo Kim (+7500) - Kim is worth a look every week, and while we usually like to see him at longer odds than he is here there is still some value when you factor in upside. He is tough to predict, but for a bet where only the outright win gets paid the median result for a golfer is irrelevant. Kim wins golf tournaments or comes darn close, or he completely blows up and is out of the equation before the weekend. As a wise man once said, "If you ain't first, you're last." Despite two missed cuts leading in, Kim is 10th in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds thanks to three top 5s since the beginning of February.
Sungjae Im (+5500) - It is not a question of if, but rather when, Im will get his first Tour win. Colonial offers as good a chance as any - it won't be overwhelmed by the bombers, and the greens aren't so treacherous as to fear the dreaded three-putt from three feet. The odds are as long as they've been all season for Sungjae, and after a few darling moments he is officially under the radar again. You don't need to risk too much to get a juicy return at these odds, and Im is going to pay off at some point.
Sam Burns (+12000) - Burns earned some confidence with a T29 finish at the PGA Championship while riding an eight-event made cut streak (we won't talk about that withdraw). He's riding a hot putter right now (8th in the field over his last 50 rounds), and three of the last four winners finished top three in putting for the week. While ballstriking is more predictive of sustained success, a hot putter can catapult an otherwise iffy performance onto the podium.