Daily Fantasy Golf Helper: AT&T Byron Nelson
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Let's take a look at some golfers to target this week.
|Key Stats for the AT&T Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest|
|Strokes Gained: Approach|
|Strokes Gained: Off the Tee|
|Par 4 Scoring from 400 to 500 Yards|
|Proximity from 200+ Yards|
|Par 5 Scoring|
We have just one year of data on Trinity Forest, a links-style course, so we can only do so much here, but in 2018, ball-striking won out for the most part. That puts strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: off the tee near the top of the list. Water isn’t in play, though there are bunkers aplenty. Even with that, around-the-green play didn’t emerge as overly important.
A reason for that is the massive greens. If you’re missing greens in regulation, you’re probably not going to be in the running for the lead. For that reason, we want golfers who get there with eagle and birdie chances.
Six of the holes are par 4s from 400 to 450 yards, and a boatload of long approach shots were seen in 2018, via FantasyNational.com.
The par 71 has three par 5s (552 yards, 570 yards, and 630 yards). The shorter ones are quite scorable, so we should prioritize golfers who do well to convert on par 5 chances. After all, Aaron Wise won at 23-under par last year, and 31 golfers were at least 10-under. In total, 14 golfers shot four rounds in the 60s. Without winds, scoring will be there.
Stats cited below come from FantasyNational and include the past 100 rounds on the PGA Tour unless noted. Ranks are among the field.
Best of the Best
Brooks Koepka (FanDuel Salary: $12,600 | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: 7/1) - Koepka is by far the most expensive golfer of the week, but he could easily run away with this event, which boasts a pretty weak field overall. He grades out third in strokes gained: off the tee over the past 100 rounds on tour, and he leads the field in strokes gained on par 5s in that split. He also ranks fifth in proximity from 200-plus yards. It’s hard to nitpick him this week.
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,500 | 13/1) - Matsuyama had a very neutral showing at this course last year tee-to-green but relied on +5.9 strokes putting to finish 16th. That’s a bit of a red flag, yet Matsuyama ranks 2nd in approach and 24th off the tee over the past 100 rounds. He’s also dialed in from that 200-plus-yard proximity range (third in the field).
Henrik Stenson ($11,000 | 29/1) - Stenson fits this course well in terms of the distances we’re targeting: he’s first on par 4s from 400 to 450 yards and first in proximity from 200-plus yards over the past 100 rounds. He’s also first in approach in that span. His approach play has been there for four straight measured events, and he should go mostly overlooked at this price.
Ryan Moore ($10,300 | 48/1) - Moore grades out 3rd in approach and 12th off the tee over the past 100 rounds, while ranking 2nd on par 4s from 400 to 450 yards. Moore’s scoring prowess isn’t anything amazing, but he really grades out well to fit this course. You’re really going to have to decide between a lineup with Koepka and/or Matsuyama or to load up on this range: Moore, Sungjae Im ($10,600), Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($10,500), Charles Howell ($10,400), and Keith Mitchell ($10,200). Both are viable, but embracing more risk could be required to get access to Koepka.
Scott Piercy ($9,800 | 48/1) - Piercy’s odds are long for this price, but he grades out 4th in approach and 22nd off the tee in our sample, and I like him at this price regardless. He finished 32nd here a year ago, while losing 2.5 strokes putting. He’s not a good Bermuda putter overall, but he’s a top-15 candidate with his tee-to-green play.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,600 | 70) - Scheffler has been tearing up the Web.com Tour. He’s coming off a second-place finish at the Nashville Golf Open, and prior to that, he finished 7th, 5th, and 2nd. The 22-year-old is from Dallas, so we have that angle, and he ranks 11th in ball striking on the Web.com Tour. He also grades out 12th in distance (313.2 average) in 2019. He also finished 20th at the Valero last month. He should go underowned, given his price.
Cheng-Tsung Pan ($9,500 | 55/1) - Pan is coming off a win at the RBC Heritage, and that should lead to an ownership boost, but he’s actually been a pretty steady golfer for a while, and he can stand out in weak fields. Pan ranked 10th in strokes gained: tee to green here last year but lost 4.3 strokes putting.
Russell Knox ($9,200 | 75/1) - Knox grades out fifth in approach and ninth in proximity from 200-plus yards. There’s a bit of an issue with his putting on Bermuda, so keep that in mind, but it’s been better of late. That could continue, or it could regress quickly. There’s really no way to know when it comes to putting. But tee-to-green, Knox shapes up pretty well, and he finished 16th here last year while relying on the putter.
Trey Mullinax ($9,200 | 75/1) - Mullinax fits that archetype of being a fantastic ball-striker, and that alone keeps him on the shortlist this week. He gained 6.6 approach strokes at the RBC Heritage (when he finished 16th) and 7.0 at the Wells Fargo (50th). It's a weak field, one that could let him float to the top. He's a risk/reward play.
Dylan Frittelli ($8,800 | 90/1) - Frittelli should be able to pick up strokes with his ball-striking this week relative to the rest of the field, primarily because of his off-the-tee play. Frittelli has picked up strokes with his approach play in six straight measured events, as well.
Brian Stuard ($8,800 | 90/1) - Stuard’s best putting surface is Bermuda, and he has picked up 4.3, 5.7, and 6.6 strokes with his approach play in his past three measured events. Stuard finished 42nd here a year ago while ranking 27th in strokes gained: tee to green.
Scott Stallings ($8,500 | 120/1) - Stallings ranks fifth in approach over the past 100 rounds and is 10th in opportunities gained, a predictive stat that includes birdie chances from within 15 feet and greens or fringes under regulation.
Adam Schenk ($8,500 | 90/1) - Schenk has been a near lock to pick up strokes with his approach play of late, and he’s been very good on Bermuda to start his career. Schenk finished 59th here last year, actually losing 0.5 strokes on approach and 2.5 strokes putting. That seems a bit abnormal, and the price is right this week.