With just one week to go before The Open, we can't get ahead of ourselves. There's still prepping for the John Deere Classic to do.
It's always a weak field, but that doesn't matter too much for our purposes because DFS is a new challenge each week no matter the circumstances.
TPC Deere Run is a PGA Tour staple, giving us plenty of past results to examine. Let's dive into the course and see what stands out -- and how it should shape our DFS lineups this week.
Course and Tournament Info
TPC Deere Run is a par 71 that runs 7,268 yards and has since 2007. We've got a birdie-fest on tap this week.
| Year | Difficulty Rank | Course | Par | Yards | Avg Score | Avg O/U Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 38 | TPC Deere Run | 71 | 7,268 | 69.753 | -1.247 |
| 2016 | 39 | TPC Deere Run | 71 | 7,268 | 69.896 | -1.104 |
| 2015 | 43 | TPC Deere Run | 71 | 7,268 | 69.648 | -1.352 |
| 2014 | 42 | TPC Deere Run | 71 | 7,268 | 69.764 | -1.236 |
| 2013 | 36 | TPC Deere Run | 71 | 7,268 | 69.397 | -1.603 |
| 2012 | 42 | TPC Deere Run | 71 | 7,268 | 69.549 | -1.451 |
| 2011 | 40 | TPC Deere Run | 71 | 7,268 | 69.608 | -1.392 |
| 2010 | 43 | TPC Deere Run | 71 | 7,268 | 69.455 | -1.545 |
| 2009 | 43 | TPC Deere Run | 71 | 7,268 | 69.756 | -1.244 |
| 2008 | 39 | TPC Deere Run | 71 | 7,268 | 70.069 | -0.931 |
| 2007 | 42 | TPC Deere Run | 71 | 7,268 | 70.229 | -0.771 |
In terms of birdie-to-bogey ratio, this course was its toughest last year since 2008, but it still had the 14th-highest birdie-to-bogey ratio of all courses on tour last season.
We're dealing with bentgrass greens that generally run slow (about an 11 or 11.5 on the stimpmeter, via FutureOfFantasy). Both the greens and fairways are easy to hit, too, so it's a recipe for fantasy points this week.
Which stats can help our golfers take full advantage?
Key Stats
These stats stand out at TPC Deere Run as some of the most important for fantasy success.
| Key Stats for The John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run |
|---|
| Strokes Gained: Approach |
| Scrambling |
| Proximity to the Hole |
| Birdie or Better Rate |
| Greens in Regulation |
We know that we need birdies here to maximize fantasy points, and these pretty much all tie into scoring (as opposed to saving par).
Strokes gained: approach is something that just almost always matters, and that's again the case this week.
I know I mentioned that saving par wasn't the goal, but scrambling does pop here. Via FantasyGolfMetrics, golfers finishing inside the top 10 here since 2003 maintained a scrambling mark of 71%, compared to 52% for those missing the cut.
Proximity and greens in regulation tie directly to scoring well, as golfers are in position to make birdies.
In all, this is a pretty balanced list, but there's nothing wrong with that.
Course History Studs
Via datagolf, Zach Johnson leads the PGA Tour in adjusted strokes gained per round at TPC Deere Run (+2.31) over 32 rounds since 2010. Johnson won here in 2012 and finished runner up in 2009, 2013, and 2014. He has 7 top-10 finishes and 9 top-25 finishes in 15 starts here in total.
Steve Stricker (+2.12) is second over the same number of rounds. Stricker won three straight years here, from 2009 to 2011.
Jordan Spieth (+2.06) is a two-time winner here in 2013 and 2015. He finished T7 in 2014.
Ryan Moore (+1.62) had made eight straight cuts here, with three top 10s and five top 25s before missing the cut in 2017. That came after a victory in 2016.