Daily Fantasy Golf Course Primer: Quicken Loans National
We're two weeks removed from the U.S. Open and just a few weeks out from The Open, but we've still got plenty of storylines to tide us over until Carnoustie.
That continues on this week at the Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm. Is that enough "at" for you?
Let's break down the course and see how it should impact our golfer selection on FanDuel this week.
Course and Tournament Info
TPC Potomac is a par 70 that spans 7,107 yards, and last season was the first year that we got to see it host a PGA Tour event.
In that one, the course played 1.458 strokes over par, on average, ranking it the fourth-most difficult course on the tour by that measure. Ideally, we'd have a larger sample to dig into, but at least one year of data is better than none, right?
The rough is fescue, and the greens and fairways are bentgrass.
The field itself is a smaller-than-usual one, with 120 golfers vying to make the cut. The top 70 plus ties make it through, and 74 golfers made the cut last year. That's a solid 62%, meaning that we need our golfers to make the cut because a six-for-six lineup won't be enough on FanDuel. It does, however, let us take a few more risks with our rosters, as high-variance golfers could push through the cut and give us a strong result.
These stats stood out as important for success here last year. We could be falling into a bit of a trap, as these stats may not hold up over the long haul at TPC Potomac, but they make sense, given the course makeup.
|Key Stats for the Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac|
|Strokes Gained: Off the Tee|
|Strokes Gained: Approach the Green|
|Par 4 Scoring|
|Greens in Regulation|
Last year, strokes gained: off the tee was responsible for 22.4% of the score dispersion, yet the PGA Tour average is 15.0%, via datagolf. This means that strokes gained: off the tee was more important here last year than it usually is on the PGA Tour.
Tied into that a bit is driving accuracy. Per FantasyGolfMetrics, there was practically no difference in driving distance between the top 25 and those missing the cut last year, but the top 25 hit 61.1% of possible fairways, and the trunk slammers hit just 52.1% of possible fairways.
Strokes gained: approach still remains a stat worth monitoring, as top-25 golfers averaged 0.91 strokes gained: approach, and those missing the cut lost -0.77 on average. Kyle Stanley, last year's winner, finished second in strokes gained: off the tee and fourth in strokes gained: approach.
The top 25 hit 67% of greens in regulation last year, and those missing the cut hit just 53%. With the course playing tough, greens in regulation and bogey avoidance will help a golfer play all four rounds, and we need that this week on FanDuel.
Course History Studs
We'll have to be liberal here, but we can at least look past just finishes from last year and into strokes gained data. We'll focus solely on strokes gained: tee to green (and the areas that form it) from last year's Quicken Loans so that we weed out hot and cold putters.
|7||Charles Howell III||2.101||0.510||1.143||0.448|
|16||Tyrone Van Aswegen||1.677||-0.073||2.132||-0.383|
Stanley led the field in strokes gained: tee to green and converted it to a win last year.
Keegan Bradley finished T5 and lost 0.570 strokes gained: putting, ranking 64th among 74 golfers who made the cut. Bryson DeChambeau wound up T17 because he ranked 69th (nice) in strokes gained: putting (-0.947).
Kevin Na was T22 and ranked 70th in strokes gained: putting (-0.990). In fact, the top six golfers by strokes gained: tee to green lost strokes putting, so when digging into last year's results, we need to keep that in mind.