Daily Fantasy Golf Course Primer: OHL Classic at Mayakoba
The PGA Tour travels to Playa del Carmen in Mexico this week for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba.
We're just two events away from a DFS month and a half layoff, so let's dig deep for this event and see what past results suggest about how to attack this course when building our FanDuel lineups for this weekend.
Course and Tournament Info
El Camaleon GC is a par 71 that runs just shy of 7,000 yards, making it a short course for a par 71. It was the 12th-longest course of 13 par 71s on tour last season.
This course has hosted a tournament 10 times since 2007, but it moved to November from February for the past four iterations. The change has coincided with some noticeable shifts in scoring.
| Year | Difficulty Rank | Course | Par | Yds | Avg Score | Avg O/U Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 41 | El Camaleon GC | 71 | 6,987 | 69.609 | -1.391 |
| 2016 | 35 | El Camaleon GC | 71 | 6,987 | 70.021 | -0.979 |
| 2015 | 38 | El Camaleon GC | 71 | 6,987 | 69.954 | -1.046 |
| 2014 | 39 | El Camaleon GC | 71 | 6,987 | 70.019 | -0.981 |
| 2012 | 17 | El Camaleon GC | 71 | 6,987 | 71.651 | 0.651 |
| 2011 | 30 | El Camaleon GC | 71 | 6,923 | 70.626 | -0.374 |
| 2010 | 27 | El Camaleon GC | 71 | 6,923 | 70.765 | -0.235 |
| 2009 | 14 | El Camaleon GC | 70 | 6,923 | 70.642 | 0.642 |
| 2008 | 14 | El Camaleon GC | 70 | 6,923 | 71.000 | 1.000 |
| 2007 | 23 | El Camaleon GC | 70 | 6,923 | 70.292 | 0.292 |
So, there's a clear split, and it's also pretty dang clear that this course runs easy now that it's in November.
Which stats matter most?
Key Stats
| Key Stats for OHL Classic at Mayakoba |
|---|
| Birdie or Better Rate |
| Strokes Gained: Tee to Green |
| Greens in Regulation |
| Par 3 Scoring |
| Good Drive Rate |
With the course playing so far under par, we need birdies, and birdies are more fantasy-friendly than pars anyway.
The course favors driving accuracy over distance, and iron play matters, so ball striking, accuracy, and strokes gained: approach matter. I'm just rolling with strokes gained: tee to green to account for all of those, and tee-to-green play has the strongest correlation to success of any of those more concentrated stats anyway.
Greens in regulation and good drive rate go hand in hand, so be careful not to give too much weight to stats that show ultimately the same thing, but getting to the greens with birdie chances matter.
Course History Studs
It's a bit strange with the change in date, which has altered scoring, but we also have data from 2007 here at El Camaleon GC, and that course familiarity shouldn't be thrown out.
Chris Stroud has played here all 10 years and reeled off three top fives between 2011 and 2013. He's made 8 of the past 9 cuts.
Charles Howell III has played this course eight times and made seven cuts. Since 2010, he has finished 20th, 13th, 16th, 6th, cut, 17th, and 7th.
Brian Gay has made seven straight cuts and won in 2008, but he's been 28th and 45th since the calendar change. JJ Henry is also a perfect seven for seven here and was second in 2009 and 9th in 2012. He has two other top 25s, as well.
Pat Perez won last year's event but was cut the year prior, 69th, and 16th in his four recent tries since the calendar change.
Charley Hoffman won three years ago but followed it up with two missed cuts. Russell Knox has made all five cuts here and turned in a second and third in the two most recent seasons.
Jason Bohn since the flip to November: 3rd, 7th, 2nd, 35th. Kevin Streelman was 28th and 3rd back in 2008 and 2009 and then 34th and 4th the past two years. Jason Kokrak was 16th, 17th, and 15th in his three tries here, which were the past three events.
Graeme McDowell made all three cuts, including a 63 in 2007, but he won in 2015 and was 24th last year.
