League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC 7/3/20
FanDuel is offering League of Legends daily fantasy, and look, if you don't know what that is, it's okay.
I have you covered with a detailed but straightforward primer to get you all set up whether you're a DFS player looking to dig into the new sport or a League of Legends fan ready to take your action over to FanDuel.
Let's break down the LEC slate for Friday, July 3rd, which locks at 12:00 Eastern, and see who stands out.
The LEC format features a single game played in each matchup, so there are no win bonuses for ending a series early.
The table below shows a team's adjusted net tower differential and their projected win odds, based on simulations I run. The raw data comes from Oracle's Elixir and references the summer split, which is a small sample of five games. I also account for spring performance in the simulations.
|Team||Opponent||Adj. Tower Differential
(Summer Split Only)
|MAD Lions||FC Schalke 04||4.41||89.9%|
|Team Vitality||Excel Esports||0.32||59.3%|
|Excel Esports||Team Vitality||-1.86||40.7%|
|FC Schalke 04||MAD Lions||-7.54||10.1%|
MAD Lions (6-1 in the split) should be super chalky against FC Schalke (0-7). Both by record and adjusted tower differential, those are the best and worst teams in the split, respectively.
Fnatic are on the wrong side of .500 (3-4), and when adjusting for opponent, they've been a below-average team. They should right the ship against the 4-3 SK Gaming, though SK hav been better than Fnatic so far. The pedigree on Fnatic just gives them the edge.
Team Vitality (3-4) and Excel Esports (2-5) are both losing teams, but Vitality have been a plus team when adjusting their performance for opponents. They have sneaky value and should be a good team to stack.
Rogue (5-2) versus Misfits (4-3) as well as G2 (4-3) versus Origen (4-3) are two matchups against above-average teams and could be close. Origen stomped G2 in Week 1, and Rogue stomped Misfits, for what it's worth.
Rekkles (Fnatic; $9,600) - This split, Rekkles hasn't exactly been what we've all come to expect from him over the years -- and neither have Fnatic, who have lost four straight after starting the split 3-0. Rekkles, despite the struggles, has 24 kills, ranking him 8th in the split, yes, but he's only two kills from tying for third. A big issue is the creep score (9.3 per minute, 9th in the split) because of Fnatic's play style right now. SK Gaming, though, have allowed the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to opposing AD Carries since the start of the spring split, and something has to give. Fnatic are too good to drop a fifth straight while getting a bad performance from Rekkles. It's much easier to recommend paying up for Carzzy (MAD Lions; $10,100).
Others to Consider: Carzzy (MAD Lions; $10,100), Comp (Team Vitality; $9,100)
Humanoid (MAD Lions; $9,200) - Okay, so I didn't talk up Carzzy in detail, but I'm not not going to detail MAD Lions just because they're pricey. The matchup is too good, and they're too good. Humanoid leads all LEC mid-laners in average FanDuel points per game since the start of the spring split, and he's second in kills (32) this split. He's died a bunch (16 times, third-most), but Abbedagge, his in-lane opponent, has just eight kills in seven games.
All that being said, Larssen (Rogue; $7,800) leads the split in KDA (kill/death/assist ratio) at 8.0 with no other mid-laner above 5.7). He's very affordable for a two-mid-laner lineup.
Others to Consider: Larssen (Rogue; $7,800), Nemesis (Fnatic; $8,700), Milica (Team Vitality; $8,000)
Orome (MAD Lions; $8,500) - Again, the matchup is just too good here. Orome leads all top-laners in KDA (7.4), thanks a lot to dying just 8 times total through 7 games. Orome's in-lane matchup against Odoamne is pristine: he has a 2/23/15 line this split (kills/deaths/assists).
Others to Consider: Wunder (G2 Esports; $8,300), Finn (Rogue; $7,400), Cabochard (Team Vitality; $7,600)
Selfmade (Fnatic; $8,400) - Shad0w (MAD Lions; $8,900) is set to pop off, but so is Selfmade, who leads all junglers in summer split kills with 20 and is tied for first in first blood rate. Fnatic need a win, and a lot of that would flow through Selfmade, who averages an experience differential of 391 at 10 minutes (no other jungler is above 96, the only other score that's positive). That's how good Selfmade has been. He's trailed in experience only once this split.
Others to Consider: Shad0w (MAD Lions; $8,900), Jankos (G2 Esports; $8,700), Inspired (Rogue; $7,600)
Vander (Rogue; $7,200) - Kaiser (MAD Lions; $7,900) and Vander have just been a tier above the other supports in average FanDuel points per game this split. They each have a KDA above 12.5 with no other support above 3.5, and Kaiser's 3.8 creep score per minute is more than three times any other support's. But anyway, Vander (8) trails only Kaiser (11) in kills, making them two of four supports with more than 2 kills this split. Supports don't have a ton of chances to rack up fantasy points outside of assists, but these two have, and both are favored.
Others to Consider: Kaiser (MAD Lions; $7,900), Hylissang (Fnatic; $7,600), labrov (Team Vitality; $7,300)
With teams, it's best to treat them as a position you don't build around or punt with. Put another way: don't force it, but don't ignore it. Kind of like defense in NFL DFS. You should target the biggest favorites you can within your salary cap.
Rogue ($7,400) rank as a favorite for me and are pretty inexpensive, and we can say the same about Team Vitality ($7,500). You should spend up for MAD Lions ($7,900) if you can, but we do have some cheap options this week.
Others to Consider: MAD Lions ($7,900), Fnatic ($7,700)