League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC 6/13/20

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Let's break down the LEC slate for Saturday, June 13th, and see who stands out.

The Slate

It's a five-game slate for the LEC's second day of the summer split. The LEC format features a single game played in each series, so there are no win bonuses for ending a series early.

The table below shows a team's adjusted net kills (per game), their adjusted net tower differential, and their projected win odds, based on simulations I run. The raw data comes from Oracle's Elixir and references the spring split.

ADC

Crownshot (SK Gaming; $9,000) - This could be an overreaction, but we just saw SK Gaming take down Origen in the opener. The kills were 11 apiece, but SK took 10 towers to Origen's 2, and that's quite a lopsided number. Crownshot went 4/1/6 (kills/deaths/assists), which is passable for such a cheap price tag. He wasn't overly productive in the spring split, with just 5.5 combined kills and assists per game. However, he's cheap for an AD Carry, and that opens up just about everything. He'll face FC Schalke, who just dropped their opener to Team Vitality by a tower count of 11-3. Clearly and obviously, Rekkles ($10,300) and PERKZ ($10,100) are better plays outright, but we could be getting a steal on Crownshot for just $9,000.

Others to Consider: Rekkles (Fnatic; $10,300), PERKZ (G2 Esports; $10,100), Carzzy (MAD Lions; $9,800)

Mid

Caps (G2 Esports; $9,100) - Caps is definitely in play at this salary as he's back in the mid-lane. G2 have a fairly tough matchup against Origen, who again lost big to SK Gaming. It's very possible they were looking ahead to this match, but G2 should probably walk through them. MAD Lions had G2's number in their opening playoff series last split, but G2 has since stomped the hype train. On Friday, G2 bested MAD Lions 21-5 in kills and 9-3 in towers. Caps went for a 4/1/6 line. G2 should win here, so that's a big boost to Caps, and if this one happens to stay close, then that's just more time for Caps to go big and make sure we don't fixate for too long on PERKZ' 9/0/9 line on Friday.

Others to Consider: Nemesis (Fnatic; $9,400), Humanoid (MAD Lions; $8,500), Abbedagge (FC Schalke; $8,500)

Top

Bwipo (Fnatic; $8,700) - Bwipo isn't really priced up enough (same for Wunder at $8,600) to mess around with the less productive top-laners in most situations. If you want to stack another team, go for it. But top lane is still about Bwipo and Wunder in the LEC. Fnatic should eviscerate Team Vitality, though they showed up well in the opener with their new roster. Cabochard went 2/1/6 against FC Schalke after putting up the worst stats among top-laners in the spring split, but this is still likely a matchup that heavily favors Bwipo individually. He played support against Team Vitality in Week 9 last split but went 4/2/8 against them prior.

Others to Consider: Wunder (G2 Esports; $8,600), Orome (MAD Lions; $8,500), Dan Dan (Misfits Gaming; $8,200)

Jungle

Jankos (G2 Esports; $8,700) - Similar to Bwipo at the same actual salary, Jankos just isn't really priced up enough relative to the rest of the position. Selfmade ($8,800) is actually pricier, though those two are in a tier of their own overall in the LEC. Jankos had a tepid start to the split with a 1/2/6 line and will likely need to be productive for G2 to control their match against Origen. Xerxe ($7,900) is actually in play on the other side of this matchup, but for the price and the upside that Jankos possesses, he's well worth the salary.

Others to Consider: Selfmade (Fnatic; $8,800), Xerxe (Origen; $7,900), Lurox (FC Schalke 04; $8,100)

Support

Hylissang (Fnatic; $7,900) - Hylissang is cheaper than Mikyx ($8,000) and way cheaper than Kaiser ($8,600), which is welcomed with his team expected to roll over Team Vitality. Even if Team Vitality are to play better this split than they did in the spring, Fnatic are favored, and we can take advantage. Hylissang was the third-most productive support in combined kills and assists in the spring split (9.2 per game) behind those two pricier supports. He also stacks well with Rekkles at AD Carry.

Destiny ($7,100) is a punt play, though Origen may not provide us with many chances for kills against G2. Support is a little though for this slate based on pricing.

Others to Consider: Mikyx (G2 Esports; $8,000), Destiny (Origen; $7,100), Nukes (FC Schalke 04; $7,500), Vander (Rogue; $7,300)

Teams

With teams, it's best to treat them as a position you don't build around or punt with. Put another way: don't force it, but don't ignore it. Kind of like defense in NFL DFS. You should target the biggest favorites you can within your salary cap.

I have Rogue ($7,400) as the cheapest favorites on the board, though they're in a bit of a coin flip over Misfits Gaming ($7,500). We should probably steer clear of the punt plays, though SK Gaming ($7,300) is worth a shot in case they can get a streak going against FC Schalke.

Others to Consider: Fnatic ($7,900), G2 Esports ($7,800), MAD Lions ($7,600)