CS:GO Daily Fantasy Helper: DreamHack Masters Spring, 6/5/20
With a lot of traditional sports on hold for now, esports has taken the front seat in DFS, and we now have Counter-Strike: Global Offensive to play on FanDuel. Affectionately known as CS:GO, two teams of five players compete on each map until one team reaches 16 rounds. Most series are played as a best-of-three and will feature teams from the DreamHack Masters Spring 2020 in North America and Europe.
If you are new to esports DFS or CS:GO DFS, take a look at the introduction piece with a rundown of format and scoring. All matches are best-of-three, and players will receive a bonus for completing a 2-0 sweep.
Another week and another CS:GO slate starting, which means we have a new set of matchups to breakdown. The DreamHack Masters Spring event is in action, with an Oceania series, an Asian series, a European series, and a North American series.
Chiefs Esports vs. Order
Both Chiefs and Order lost their first-round matchups, so this is a win-or-go-home scenario. As noted the other day, the Chiefs recently added three players zeph ($10,100), soju_j ($9,900), and Vexite ($9,600). The series they lost the other day was only three maps, so that should give us something to look at. It's not amazing, but prior to this, those three players were on lower-tier teams and playing a different level of opponents.
HUGHMUNGUS ($11,500) was one of the two players on the team before the roster change, and he is also one of their better players. This is shown by his 54 kills over their recent three maps -- an average of 18 kills per map -- and held a +3 kill-to-death differential.
apocdud ($10,900) had 53 over those three maps and was at a +1 kill-to-death differential. Apocdud and HUGHMUNGUS were the only two players on the team who finished with a positive kill-to-death differential. Each of the three new players were at -11 or worse, with 46 kills or fewer.
As for Order, they got hit with a swift 2-0 loss the other day to AVANT and, simply put, looked terrible. Four of their five players -- not including Valiance ($10,600) -- finished with a negative kill-to-death differential. Valiance posted 42 kills over those two maps -- the highest on the team -- and comes in as their second-cheapest option today.
Rickeh ($12,000) vastly underperformed the other day, with only 28 kills over the two maps played. He is the most expensive player on the slate -- again -- and if you sense there is any amount of recency bias due to that poor performance, he could offer some leverage.
J1rah ($9,700) had the second-most kills the other day in the two-map series, but also had the second-worst kill-to-death differential. The upside is there for him, but just know that it comes with some volatility.
Lucid Dream vs. Beyond Esports
This is also a win-or-go-home series, and we see Lucid Dream come in with a 71.4% implied win probability. They have won three of the last four series they have played against Beyond Esports, and every win was via a sweep.
Both foxz ($9,600) and SevenN89 ($9,700) are new to the team and weren't with Lucid Dream when they previously played Beyond Esports. But, if we look at the three series -- a total of six maps -- Lucid Dream won against Beyond, we see that PTC ($10,200) averaged 21 kills per map. cbbk ($10,500) averaged 20.1 kills per map, and JohnOlsen ($9,400) averaged 19 kills per map.
PTC, cbbk, and JohnOlsen should be the top targets from Lucid Dream and range from their most expensive -- cbbk -- to their cheapest option -- JohnOlsen. A large favorite with plenty of success against them recently is something we always like to see in CS:GO.
As you could imagine, in those three series Beyond Esports lost to Lucid Dream, their players didn't do so well. They were swept in each series and saw every player finish with a negative kill-to-death differential for each series -- except for Olivia ($11,600), who had a positive kill-to-death differential in one of the three series.
Olivia is clearly the best player on Beyond Esports and averaged 18 kills per game over those six maps. stk ($9,700) managed to post 15.5 kills per map in the losses, the second-best on the team. After that, both Kntz ($9,800) and MAIROLLS ($9,500) had rather uninspiring performances and are very low-end fantasy options.
