League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC/LCS Finals, Sunday 4/19/20
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Let's break down the LEC slate for Sunday, April 19th and see who stands out.
We've got a two-series slate, with each series being a best-of-five format. Teams that win in fewer than five games get a bonus: 20 points per player per game and 15 points per team per game.
The table shows a team's kill-to-death ratio (K:D) and their net tower score (towers gained versus towers surrendered). All stats are from gol.gg. The last two columns display a team's win and sweep odds based on simulations I've run on the matchups. The table is sorted by projected series win odds, which are based heavily on K:D and net towers.
We start off with a firecracker of a match between G2 Esports and Fnatic, undoubtedly two best teams in the LEC and two heavyweights in their own right. The spring split favored G2 Esports 2-0, and they earned 16 towers to 7 for Fnatic in those two games. They also churned out 36 kills to just 15 deaths. They're only slight favorites based on my simulations, as they may not even have been playing to their fullest this split. This one could easily go to five games.
In the LCS, Cloud9 certainly have been playing to their fullest. They were 17-1 in the spring split and lost just one game so far in the playoffs, to Evil Geniuses. Against FlyQuest this split, they were 2-0 by a tower differential of 18-2. They're heavy, heavy favorites here. That gives them a high floor but does cap their ceiling a bit if they just get 20-point bonuses in Games 4 and 5. I will say that FlyQuest have been really good since swapping out V1per in top lane for Solo, and this one could go 3-1 as a result. Still, a drubbing is the expectation.
Just a warning: it's very easy to get optimistic about Cloud9 and -- to a lesser degree -- G2 on this slate. You don't have to play the chalk -- and you shouldn't only play the chalk -- but the chalk is the chalk for a reason.
Zven (Cloud9; $10,300) - Zven and all of Cloud9 vault to the top of their respective positions on this slate, so I want to make that clear before really digging in. Winning teams score more in League of Legends, and losing squads generate about 60% of the FanDuel points of their winning counterparts. For that reason, the safety and ceiling from Cloud9 is hard to ignore on this two-series slate.
Zven himself leads the slate in KDA (12.3), followed by Rekkles (Fnatic; $10,000) at 9.9. Zven is a high-floor, high-ceiling option in the finals and is a can't-miss stud play at ADC. My projections rate him as the highest scoring play on the slate by a pretty wide margin. Because I'm more on G2 than Fnatic, it's Caps (G2 Esports; $10,500) who ranks higher for me than Rekkless. These three are all very, very playable, and if you can get a lineup with two of them, that'd be very juicy.
Ranking the Position: Zven (Cloud9; $10,300), Caps (G2 Esports; $10,500), Rekkles (Fnatic; $10,000), WildTurtle (FlyQuest; $9,200)
PERKZ (G2 Esports; $9,100) - We have two absolutely elite mid-laners on this slate with PERKZ and Cloud9's Nisqy ($9,200) and two others who can certainly hang around. Mid is deep, and playing two of them is very much in play. Anyway, Nisqy is the better play given the matchup even against PowerOfEvil (FlyQuest; $7,900), but PERKZ is cheaper by a hair.
PERKZ trails Nisqy in KDA (6.7 to 5.1) but outdoes him in sheer kills and assists per game (12.0 to 11.1). PERKZ's path is going to be a bit tougher, but we have real five-game potential in this series. Nisqy's ceiling could be limited in a 3-0 sweep. Straight up, PERKZ has averaged more FanDuel points per game on the full split than has Nisqy. All four mid-laners are good plays at their prices.
Ranking the Position: Nisqy (Cloud9; $9,200), PERKZ (G2 Esports; $9,100), Nemesis (Fnatic; $8,200), PowerOfEvil (FlyQuest; $7,900)
Bwipo (Fnatic; $8,200) - Whether Fnatic win or lose, Bwipo in the top lane can score FanDuel points. He's not that far off the pace of Licorice (Cloud9; $8,600) in projected fantasy points, which is definitely worth mentioning. His in-lane opponent, Wunder ($8,700), rates higher but not by much. Bwipo could be a source of savings that is very much welcomed on a loaded slate.
Bwipo has a weak 3.2 KDA but averages 9.5 kills and assists, second to Wunder (11.4) and better than Licorice (8.4). We get both five-game potential from Bwipo and a little bit of freedom even if G2 roll up Fnatic, as top lane is the most win/loss agnostic position there is in League of Legends. Solo ($7,900) has been dominating for FlyQuest and is a fine punt, as well. Just like with mid and ADC, top gives us flexibility on this slate.
Ranking the Position: Licorice (Cloud9; $8,600), Wunder (G2 Esports; $8,700), Bwipo (Fnatic; $8,200), Solo (FlyQuest; $7,900)
Jankos (G2 Esports; $8,800) - Unlike with the three other positions so far, jungle looks like a two-man race. Jankos and Cloud9's Blaber ($8,900) rank as top-five plays on the slate when accounting for positional scarcity. Their KDA rates (6.3 and 6.7, respectively) are dominant for the slate (Fnatic's Selfmade ($8,400) is third at 3.9), and they both should hold significant advantages over their jungle opponents on Sunday. Not only do they both rate out as great plays by themselves, pairing both of these junglers is a way to differentiate your lineup a bit and still leave room for huge numbers.
Junglers on losing teams can still do well, partially because they can roam where needed and apply pressure and don't get abused one-on-one, but punting with Santorin (FlyQuest; $7,700) is a high-risk play that could sink your lineup. That's more about your risk tolerance, yet it would almost guarantee an ownership leverage opportunity.
Ranking the Position: Blaber (Cloud9; $8,900), Jankos (G2 Esports; $8,800), Selfmade (Fnatic; $8,400), Santorin (FlyQuest; $7,700)
Mikyx (G2 Esports; $7,900) - I know. It's a lot of G2 players, but like with jungle, Mikyx and Vulan (Cloud9; $7,800) just rank really well -- and this is even while projecting a very close series for G2 and Fnatic. These two support players are a massive tier above the other two on the slate in projected fantasy points on my end. Mikyx averages 14.0 kills and assists per game, and Vulcan is second at 10.6. That's a massive gap.
Hylissang (Fnatic; $7,300) is close behind Vulcan at 9.2 but dies more than any support on the slate and has the lowest kill participation rate of the four. He's viable, especially when playing the angle of a G2/Fnatic five-game series, but as it stands, Cloud9 and G2 just offer too much potential to suggest prioritizing other plays at support.
IgNar (FlyQuest; $6,900) viable a punt option to let you spend up elsewhere, as support players don't score a ton of points. He's probably the best play on FlyQuest on the context of the full slate.
Ranking the Position: Mikyx (G2 Esports; $7,900), Vulcan (Cloud9; $7,800), Hylissang (Fnatic; $7,300), IgNar (FlyQuest; $6,900)
With teams, it's best to treat them as a position you don't build around or punt with. Put another way: don't force it, but don't ignore it. Kind of like defense in NFL DFS. You should target the biggest favorites you can within your salary cap and avoid teams destined to lose 0-3.
Cloud9 ($) are the best option by a mile and can easily earn the 3-0 sweep. From there, you need to take a stand on G2 ($) or Fnatic ($). I'm with G2. You can still get away with punting with a losing team here, so long as you hit everywhere else. You're just asking to cap your lineup's overall upside of you take FlyQuest ($) in an 0-3 sweep.
Ranking the Position: Cloud9 ($8,100), G2 ($7,900), Fnatic ($7,300), FlyQuest ($6,900)