League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC/LCS Playoffs, Sunday 4/12/20
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Let's break down the LEC slate for Sunday, April 12th and see who stands out.
We've got a two-series slate, with each series being a best-of-five format. Teams that win in fewer than five games get a bonus: 20 points per player per game and 15 points per team per game.
The table shows a team's kill-to-death ratio (K:D) and their net tower score (towers gained versus towers surrendered). All stats are from gol.gg. The last two columns display a team's win and sweep odds based on simulations I've run on the matchups. The table is sorted by projected series win odds, which are based heavily on K:D and net towers.
Note: Due to issues with Riot's server, stats are updated through April 4th.
G2 Esports, the 1 seed in the LEC, were bounced from the winners' bracket due to a loss to MAD Lions last Friday, and no doubt -- they'll want to exact some revenge on the rest of the playoffs. Against Origen this season, G2 won both matches with a cumulative tower lead of 19-7.
FlyQuest and TSM split their season series 1-1. FlyQuest won in Week 4 with 20 kills and 15 deaths -- paired with a slim tower lead of 9-8. PowerOfEvil won the mid-lane battle with Bjergsen, posting an 8/2/8 (kill/death/assist) line to Bjergsen's 2/3/8. It'll be hard to avoid stacking G2 on this slate.
TSM's Week 7 win was by a larger margin (15-5 in kills and 8-3 in towers), led by a 7/0/5 line from Bjergsen. PowerOfEvil was just 1/2/2 in that matchup.
Caps (G2 Esports; $10,400) - I won't write up every G2 starter, even though they all rank first at their respective positions. Instead, I'll point out the ones who stand out most relative to the rest of the position on the two-game slate. Caps is actually second on the slate in KDA (kill/death/assist ratio) at 6.6, behind Upset (Origen; $9,600) at 7.6. However, if you nix the deaths from the equation, Caps has a kill/assist rate of 14.6 per game. Upset is second at 9.3.
With Caps, he's the clear number-one AD Carry on the slate, and the fact that the second-best player, Upset, is likely to play from behind, there's a significant opportunity cost by not getting a lot of Caps exposure. Losing players score about 60% as many FanDuel points as winners at the same position, so Upset is mostly in play only from the angle that you think Origen win the series or push it to a full five games, giving Upset two wins against G2.
Ranking the Position: Caps (G2; $10,400), Kobbe (TSM; $9,900), Upset (Origen; $9,600), WildTurtle (FlyQuest; $9,200)
Bjergsen (TSM; $8,800) - PERKZ ($9,500) is easily the top mid-lane option on the slate, but the gap is a smidgeon narrower between PERKZ and other mid-lane options. That starts with Bjergsen, who does have a higher KDA (5.3) than PERKZ (5.1). Bjergsen is also involved in 71% of his team's kills, the best number on the slate (PowerOfEvil is close at 70%, and PERKZ is actually last at 61% -- but he still leads in kills per game because G2 rack up so many).
Nukeduck (Origen; $8,600) will have his hands full with PERKZ and G2, but we still have three very viable mid-laners on the slate even without him. Because I will be leaning more toward TSM than FlyQuest, Bjergsen stands out. We could be looking at a five-game set between TSM and FlyQuest. Stacking Bjergsen with PowerOfEvil is very much in play.
Ranking the Position: PERKZ (G2; $9,500), Bjergsen (TSM; $8,800), PowerOfEvil (FlyQuest; $8,100), Nukeduck (Origen; $8,600)
Alphari (Origen; $8,000) - Top is looking like he deepest position on this slate, and it's not just because FlyQuest can roll out two different top laners. Wunder (G2; $9,000) is a dominant player and leads the slate's top laners in kills/assists per game (11.4) but is actually outdone by Alphari in KDA (4.3 to 4.1). Alphari, in two losses to G2, went 3/3/4 and 3/3/5, which won't win you a GPP, but it speaks to his ability to remain relevant despite playing as a big underdog. He may be the LEC's best top-laner, so he's still relevant here.
In sheer projections, Alphari is just behind Broken Blade (TSM; $8,400) and well off the pace of Wunder. He's just too good to consider a mere afterthought. Also, Solo (FlyQuest; $7,700) played all three games in their first-round playoff series. All four starting tops are viable, so we have plenty of flexibility for our FanDuel lineups.
Ranking the Position: Wunder (G2; $9,000), Broken Blade (TSM; $8,400), Alphari (Origen; $8,000), Solo (FlyQuest; $7,700)
Jankos (G2; $9,200) - Okay, back to G2. Jankos just is on another level compared to the rest of the junglers on the slate, and we have to factor that in. Jankos' 6.3 KDA is tops on the slate, though Xerxe (Origen; $8,300) is close behind at 5.9. But Jankos' 13.6 combined kills and assists per game is nearly 5.0 higher than Xerxe's 8.8. Jankos has a slate-best 27% kill share. He went a combined 10/4/21 against Origen this split (a 7.8 KDA). He averages more than 10 extra FanDuel points per game than any other jungler on the slate this split. Jankos has to be a priority play.
Ranking the Position: Jankos (G2; $9,200), Xerxe (Origen; $8,300), Dardoch (TSM; $8,600), Santorin (FlyQuest; $8,000)
Mikyx (G2; $8,100) - Mikyx might double up all other supports on this slate in FanDuel points. It's that clear-cut to me at support. I understand if he doesn't fit into your build, but he stacks perfectly with Caps, and he is almost guaranteed bonus points for a series that ends in fewer than five games, which matters more at support than other higher-scoring positions. Mikyx averages 14.0 combined kills and assists. The next best mark on the slate is Destiny (Origen; $7,400) at 9.2. And similar to Upset at AD Carry, Origen is technically the next-best place to look but should play from behind and possibly not secure any wins. Mikyx is the number-one support play by too large a margin to gloss over.
Ranking the Position: Mikyx (G2; $8,100), Biofrost (TSM; $7,600), IgNar (FlyQuest; $6,900), Destiny (Origen; $7,400)
With teams, it's best to treat them as a position you don't build around or punt with. Put another way: don't force it, but don't ignore it. Kind of like defense in NFL DFS. You should target the biggest favorites you can within your salary cap and avoid teams destined to lose 0-3.
G2 ($8,000) are the best option and actually have appeal with the 3-0 sweep in play. The much likelier place to start is with TSM ($7,800). If you think FlyQuest ($7,100) win, then there's value there, too, but punting with Origen isn't going to be a viable play unless they stretch out the series or pull off an upset. You'll want to make sure you have enough salary to avoid them more often than not.
Ranking the Position: G2 ($8,000), TSM ($7,800), FlyQuest ($7,100), Origen ($7,500)