League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC/LCS Playoffs, Sunday 4/5/20
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Let's break down the LEC slate for Sunday, April 5th and see who stands out.
We've got a two-series slate, with each series being a best-of-five format. Teams that win in fewer than five games get a bonus: 20 points per player and 15 points per team.
The table is sorted by differential in Kill:Death ratio, which correlates very strongly to win rate. Other stats listed include gold spend differential (GSD), first baron rate (FBN%), and jungle control (JNG%) as well as each team's opponent mark in the category. These all are tied closely to win rate. All stats are from Oracle's Elixir.
As you can see, there are two very different matchups here: Cloud9 are a dominant team and hold huge advantages over 100 Thieves. Misfits and Rogue is a tougher call.
My simulated series -- based on a few factors but mostly tower differential, a great indicator of team strength -- has Cloud9 winning more than 90% of the time and sweeping in more of half of the series. That's how good they've been this split relative to 100 Thieves. That puts their players in a tight spot in terms of game volume, but they'll be getting bonuses for winning.
For Rogue and Misfits, it's closer. I have Rogue winning 54% of the time, but just shy of a quarter of the combined 10,000 simulations resulted in a sweep either way. The most common length is a five-gamer, but we're pretty much looking at a four-game set at least.
The caveat here is that Rogue are 2-0 against Misfits in the split but are limping into the playoffs after losing to SK Gaming and Schalke -- bottom-of-the-table teams -- last week. Misfits are quite possibly the better team.
Zven, Cloud9 ($10,300) - With the bonus points for wins, we can save a little concern about Zven and Cloud9's sweep possibility. Via Gamepedia, Zven's kill/death/assist ratio (KDA) is 15.4, giving him one of only two marks in double digits. Nobody else's is above 10.6. On this slate, nobody has a KDA above 9.9, and that's actually Vulcan ($8,200), Cloud9's support and a great stacking candidate with Zven. The only concern for Zven here is the lack of games, but 40 points will be his in a sweep -- plus the damage he would undoubtedly do in a 3-0 sweep. We can differentiate in other ways.
Ranking the Position: Zven, Cloud9 ($10,300), Bvoy, Misfits ($9,600); Hans sama, Rogue ($9,400); Cody Sun, 100 Thieves ($9,200)
Larssen, Rogue ($8,200) - So, Nisqy ($9,300) and Cloud9's picks are all top priority, but we can't just talk about them and only them. Larssen led the first matchup with Misfits in FanDuel points and was second in their most recent matchup. Translation: he's had Misfits' number, which is surprising because Febiven ($8,400) is no slouch in the mid-lane. Larssen is second in the LEC in creep score per minute among mid-laners and fourth in damage per minute. He's a good savings option on this slate.
Ranking the Position: Nisqy, Cloud9 ($9,300), Larssen, Rogue ($8,200); Febiven, Misfits ($8,400); Ryoma, 100 Thieves ($8,800)
Dan Dan, Misfits ($8,300) - Dan Dan didn't net a win against Rogue in either match, but he did hold his own (if not win) top lane in both matchups. Dan Dan will face off with Finn, against whom he had success. Dan Dan finished fourth and seventh among players in FanDuel points in their two matchups. Again, both of those were losses, and it's rare to see losing players score well. Dan Dan was a combined 3/8/7 (kills/deaths/assists) against Rogue this year, and even though that's not stellar, he'd be the first place I'd look if not spending up for Licorice ($8,800).
Ranking the Position: Licorice, Cloud9 ($8,800), Dan Dan, Misfits ($8,300); Ssumday, 100 Thieves ($7,900); Finn, Rogue ($7,700)
Blaber, Cloud9, ($9,000) - I know I was trying to shy away from naming all Cloud9 picks, but it's really hard to get away from Blaber here. He has averaged 28.7 FanDuel points per game this split, and next up on the slate is Razork ($8,200) from Misfits at 18.1. That's a full 10 points more on average than any other jungler. Blaber's lines against 100 Thieves this split were 5/3/11 and 1/3/8, good for 42.8 and 24.2 FanDuel points. The ceiling and floor are sky-high.
Ranking the Position: Blaber, Cloud9 ($9,000), Inspired, Rogue ($7,900); Razork, Misfits ($8,200); Meteos, 100 Thieves ($8,500)
Vulcan, Cloud9 ($8,200) - I could only stay away for so long, and similar to what we see with Zven and Blaber, there's just significant opportunity cost by fading Vulcan. He's tied to Zven, and that leads to tons of assist possibilities. His 9.9 KDA is nearly three times that of any other support on the slate (3.6 for Misfits' denyk ($7,500)). Vulcan averages 22.0 FanDuel points per game, with no other support on this slate above 15.0, and we're easily looking at 40 extra points from a sweep. Supports are probably the biggest beneficiaries from sweeps, as their ADCs will probably dominate, thus leading to a sweep. And 20 points is a bit low for the other positions, but it's a good score for supports.
Ranking the Position: Vulcan, Cloud9 ($8,200), denyk, Misfits ($7,500); Vander, Rogue ($7,000); Stunt, 100 Thieves ($7,400)
Misfits ($7,600) - Pay for Cloud9 if you can. But you may not be able to. If you can't, do not punt with 100 Thieves unless you think they pull a MAD Lions and push Cloud9, which is very, very unlikely. Losing teams don't score much at all, and they could be looking at an 0-3 sweep. Between Misfits and Rogue, I'm leaning Misfits because they have been the better team over the full split even though they dropped both games against Rogue. Additionally, Rogue just dropped two games last weekend. Their wins have been softer (they're 0-6 against the big three of G2, Fnatic, and Origen, while Misfits are 2-4), too.
Ranking the Position: Cloud9 ($8,000), Misfits ($7,600); Rogue ($7,000); 100 Thieves ($7,600)