Questions
What do the daily fantasy projections represent?
Curious - what do the daily fantasy projections for each player represent? I assume something like a Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible outcomes for each player (perhaps not), is the value listed the average of these outcomes, the median, or some other calculation?
Wondering because this is important if used to bet on prop bets (ex: over/under on number of strike outs by a pitcher).
Thanks!
  • 1
    Sam Hauss (371 Reputation Points)
    You are definitely on the right track here. The daily fantasy projections are created after running a large number of simulations based on historical and comparable data, in which the projections are essentially the most likely scenarios based on those simulations. So when you see a player like Josh Donaldson projected for .26 homeruns that means he hit a homer in 26% of those simulations. Or, for pitchers, when a guy like Kershaw is projected for 7.3 strikeouts, that is the average number based on those simulations...hope that helps!
    2 Comments
    Daniel Shostak (500 Reputation Points)
    Still confused. You say that the projections are the "most likely scenario(s)", then for JD he hit a homer in 26% of the sims, and then Kershaw simmed out with an average of 7.3 Ks. The most likely implies the median (50% or more),
    Sam Hauss (371 Reputation Points)
    Sorry for the confusion. The number is purely based on the sims. Perhaps the term "most likely" was not the best one. If you would like a more detailed explanation feel free to email me directly at sam@numberfire.com.