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Samir Ahmad
Keeper help needed - Randall Cobb vs. A.J. Green vs. Jeremy Maclin
I'm in a standard 12 team keeper league (non PPR) starting 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 R/W/T, 1 K and 1 D. I get the fifth pick, so McCoy would be my round 1, pick 5.

My first two keepers are

LeSean McCoy (cost me 1st round pick)
Le'Veon Bell (cost me 8th round pick)

I'm trying to decide who my third keeper should be. My choices are

Randall Cobb (cost me 10th round pick)
A.J. Green (cost me 2nd round pick)
Jeremy Maclin (cost me 13th round pick)

I'm leaning towards Cobb because of the value but afraid to let go of a true WR1 like AJG. I understand that Green is way better than Cobb and Maclin, but how much better in terms of incremental value? Is he 8-11 rounds worth better? In other words, does going with Green at the cost of 2nd round pick worth the opportunity cost as opposed to Cobb for 10th round pick or Maclin for 13th round pick?
  • 2
    Richard Olcott (500 Reputation Points)
    Average Draft Position, according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, for Green is 14 (for your position, a 1st round value reach). For Randall Cobb it's 29 (for your position, a 3rd round value exactly). For Jeremy Maclin it's 63 (for your position, a 5th round value reach).

    Now let's look at who you could get in the 2nd round if you let Green go. Comparing your draft position (20) with the average ADP, you could get: Bernard, Brees, Morris, Nelson, Martin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Alshon Jeffery, Zac Stacy.

    Let's look at the projections. The closest WR projection to Green's from that list belongs to Antonio Brown.
    Green - 207.66
    Brown - 194.78
    That's a difference of 12.88, or less than 1 pt per game.

    So Green is out.

    Next compare Cobb's projections to Maclin's
    Cobb - 184.37
    Maclin - 146.75

    Note that Cobb is closer to Green than he is to Maclin. I think Cobb is the clear winner here.
    7 Comments
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    Dirty Randy's (482 Reputation Points)
    I agree on
    ↳
    Dirty Randy's (482 Reputation Points)
    i agree on Cobb**
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    Samir Ahmad (331 Reputation Points)
    Thanks for a great insightful answer Richard. One question though. Since it's a keeper league, I'm forecasting guys like Bernard, Morris, Gronk, Alshon and Stacy to be kept and not available for a draft pick. If I do let go of AJ Green and keep my second round pick, I should have one of these guys available in the second round - Toby Gerhart, Brees/Rodgers, Fitzgerald, Sankey etc. (guys that would typically go in 3rd or 4th round in standard drafts). Would you still recommend Cobb over AJ?
    ↳
    Richard Olcott (500 Reputation Points)
    So you're calculating on the first few rounds having an ADP of 1 less round than average, right?
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    Samir Ahmad (331 Reputation Points)
    More or less yes. I'm assuming that most of the first and second round studs will be kept.
    ↳
    Samir Ahmad (331 Reputation Points)
    Hi Richard - Do you still recommend Cobb over AJ Green, given the fact that most 1st and 2nd rounders will probably be 'kept'?
    ↳
    Richard Olcott (500 Reputation Points)
    Given your answer to my comment below, I would say no. But I'm a believer in Cruz this year, so my personal choice would be Cobb and save my 2nd round pick.
  • 0
    brickthrees (500 Reputation Points)
    it's Cobb
  • 0
    Richard Olcott (500 Reputation Points)
    so starting with your pick 20 in the second round, you should probably have Julius Thomas, CJ Spiller, Reggie Bush, Keenan Allen, Toby Gerhart, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Victor Cruz, Ryan Mathews, Bishop Sankey, Larry Fitzgerald, and Wes Welker.
    2 Comments
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    Richard Olcott (500 Reputation Points)
    Round 3 will be the same for you either way, so we'll skip to Round 4, in which you'll need a 3rd WR if you go with AJ Green and miss your 2nd round. You're likely to have Ray Rice, Jordan Cameron, Ben Tate, TY Hilton, Joique Bell, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith, Emmanuel Sanders, Nick Foles, Stevan Ridley, Steven Jackson, Robert Griffin III. Do you like any WRs in that group, or would you rather fill one of the other positions from that group?
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    Samir Ahmad (331 Reputation Points)
    I like Vincent Jackson and Welker but not any other WR from the group you mentioned. I think I would rather target upside guys like Rueben Randle and Sammy Watkins.
  • 0
    Stanley Wilkins (463 Reputation Points)
    Great response Richard. Cobb is the guy.
  • 0
    Rob S (432 Reputation Points)
    Cobb
  • 0
    Mike Conley (434 Reputation Points)
    I second Richard's response.
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