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Ajay Sutton
Draft Position Strategy
The way one of my leagues chooses its draft order is by randomly drawing numbers out of a hat, and then giving the top pickers the choice of where they would like to draft. For example, if I picked #1 out of the hat, I wouldn't necessarily be locked in to picking #1 overall...I could choose any position, 1-10. If I chose #10, for example, the guy who picked #2 out of the hat could choose any position 1-9...and so on down the line it goes. Specific to this year, picks #1 & #2 are already spoken for; the highest I could possibly pick is #3.

This is also a keeper league, so I'm really kinda wracking my brain trying to figure out where the "ideal" draft position would be, based on what 3 players I already have on my roster when we draft. I haven't decided exactly who my keepers are, but it's likely it's going to be: Jimmy Graham/Giovani Bernard/Montee Ball, OR Jimmy Graham/Montee Ball or Giovani Bernard/Andrew Luck. At the moment, I do not have a WR worth keeping.

I could use a ton of space listing who other likely keepers from other teams are, but I think the only thing that matters as it relates to the first round is this: Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Demaryius Thomas, and Peyton Manning are the only other players in the concensus Top 15 rankings that are pretty much a lock to not be available to draft.

At the moment, and especially if I am allowed to keep both Montee Ball and Giovani Bernard, I'm half tempted to deliberately pick #10, and go WR/WR, possibly get A.J. Green and like Dez Bryant.

I don't think I'm going to have a crack at a TRUE stud/elite RB unless I am able to pick #3 overall...with Forte and Lacy being kept, and some combo of AP/Charles/McCoy going 1-2...the only one left of that group is going to be drafted #3 overall for sure. But I draft out of the 3 slot, I am going to be pretty hampered at WR, and I still feel like I'd need to take a WR with 2 of my first 3 picks.

Ugh...a lot of unknown variables make this more of a headache than in should be, but I still don't know what would be best even with the information I do have.
  • 0
    Ben Verwegen (500 Reputation Points)
    What other QBs are being kept and which others will be available? Does your league start 1 or 2 QBs?

    I am in a 12 team, 2QB keeper league, where I am trying to decide between 3 out of : Lacy, Forte, Luck, RG3. I am leaning Lacy + the 2QBs because everyone reaches on QBs early (Andy Dalton went 13th overall).

    My opinion is make the keeper decision based on the QB value and then once that is done it will make choosing a draft position easier.
    1 Comment
    ↳
    Ajay Sutton (383 Reputation Points)
    Well I'm not 100% sure which other QBs are being kept...our deadline for final keeper decisions isn't for quite some time. If I was managing each team? Based on value via draft position and expected performance, I'm guessing that Matthew Stafford, Nick Foles, RGIII, and Peyton Manning will be the only QBs off-limits. Frankly, there are only two reasons I'm considering keeping Luck (because I'm certainly not in love with him, even with Wayne back and Hakeem Nicks there)...#1, as it currently stands, we can't keep more than 1 player at a position. Hopefully that rule gets removed by the powers that be, but if it doesn't, I actually CAN'T keep both Gio and Ball. Reason #2, I only have to give up a 12th round pick to keep him. Frankly, I think after Manning/Brees/Rodgers, there is a middle tier of QBs whose leading scorer could be decided by only a handful of points. I think Luck will still be in that tier this year (and will remain there for as long as Pep Hamilton is calling plays in Indy). The guy I've really got my sights set on this year is Matt Ryan...I feel like he's in line for a huge bounce back year, and no one in my league is going to even have him on their Top 10 radar. But when it comes down to it, I'd probably have to be targeting him around the same round I can keep Luck...so it's kind of a coin flip for me. In your league, or any 2QB league, I totally agree with your reasoning...but for a regular old 1QB league, I'm actually not concerned about QB at all. I think I should also point out that I have a completely ridiculous headache to deal with: I am a Bengals fan, and can't stand when I can't have AJ Green on my team...I play with a bunch of guys that love antagonizing me over it and trying to get me to bite on ridiculous trades to acquire him. I actually HAVE him on my roster from last year, and could conceivably keep him...but he'd be a 1st round pick. Now, like I said, with pretty much half of the 1st round guarantees likely to be kept, that blows up what things are going to look like quite a bit...he could end up being a 1st round pick depending on how things shake out...but I don't like the idea of losing control of who I select in round 1, just in case anyone crazy falls to me. Ultimately, it was way too early to ask this question...I need to have a better idea of who other folks are keeping, and whether or not I'll be allowed to keep 2 RBs. If I keep 2 RBs, and WRs are being held on to like hot cakes, my question answers itself haha
Question Tags
Jimmy Graham No Recent News
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Giovani Bernard No Recent News
Montee Ball No Recent News
NFL
Related Questions
Question Tags
Jimmy Graham No Recent News
Andrew Luck No Recent News
Giovani Bernard No Recent News
Montee Ball No Recent News
NFL