The Blues' Game 1 Victory Over the Wild Turned the Series on Its Head
By any measure, the Minnesota Wild had a superb regular season and are one of the NHL's best teams.
The Wild won 49 games and tallied 108 points, the second-most in the Western Conference. According to our numbers, they were the third-best team in hockey, the top team in the West, and had a 7.8% chance of winning the title -- which was, again, the best mark in the West.
So it was no surprise that Minnesota was, per our numbers, a big favorite in their first-round playoff matchup against the St. Louis Blues, a quality squad but one that sat 11th in our power rankings. Prior to last night's Game 1, our models gave the Wild a 61.5% chance of besting the Blues in the best-of-seven series, making them the biggest first-round favorite in the West.
Then Jake Allen happened.
The Blues' goalie played an all-time great game Wednesday night, turning aside 51 shots in a remarkable showing as St. Louis took Game 1 in Minnesota. It was the third-most shots against in a playoff game in Blues history, and the 51 saves were a career high for Allen.
There's standing on your head, and then there's what Allen did in this one.
sweet heck jake allen pic.twitter.com/KqugKTwAZ7
— AOL KEYWORD: Mike (@mikeFAIL) April 13, 2017
A lot can change in one night. Not only did the 51-stop masterpiece completely reverse Allen's playoff history -- he owned a .902 save-percentage in 12 career postseason appearances -- it flipped the series on its head.
As we touched on in the intro, according to our models, the Wild entered the series with a 61.5% chance to win the series. Here's how the likelihood of the different scenarios broke down.
| Scenario | Odds |
|---|---|
| Blues win in 4 | 4.32% |
| Blues win in 5 | 8.34% |
| Blues win in 6 | 13.49% |
| Blues win in 7 | 12.35% |
| Blues win series | 38.50% |
| Wild win in 4 | 9.29% |
| Wild win in 5 | 17.09% |
| Wild win in 6 | 17.44% |
| Wild win in 7 | 17.68% |
| Wild win series | 61.50% |
Now, with the Blues up 1-0, it's St. Louis who is the favorite. Our numbers give the Blues a 56.9% chance of eliminating Minnesota.
| Scenario | Odds |
|---|---|
| Wild win in 5 | 9.05% |
| Wild win in 6 | 14.99% |
| Wild win in 7 | 19.05% |
| Wild win series | 43.09% |
| Blues win in 4 | 9.88% |
| Blues win in 5 | 14.98% |
| Blues win in 6 | 18.03% |
| Blues win in 7 | 14.02% |
| Blues win series | 56.91% |
Clearly, the Blues are no lock to pull the upset -- and if they allow 50-plus shots each night, they'll be in trouble -- but the Game 1 win improved their series odds by 18.41%.
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are merely one night old, and they're already getting crazy.
