FanDuel Defenses to Target in Week 17
With many season long leagues already finished, it’s a great time to lock in on FanDuel contests for the final week of the regular season.
Since our top defense is once again very fairly priced, we only have two options this week. If you’re interested in mixing other defenses to into your lineup, or want to dig in further to our analysis of these picks, feel free to check out the rest of our projections for each team.
Both teams that we suggest this week actually have a lot in common. It’s two division matchups against teams that rank in the top two in sacks allowed with struggling replacement quarterbacks. It’s actually kind of spooky how similar both of these matchups are, and both teams had 12 fantasy points against their respective Week 17 opponents during their first meeting this year.
We have chosen and analyzed each matchup this week with the help of our signature metric, Net Expected Points (NEP), which compares a team's or player's performance relative to expectation-level.
St. Louis (at San Francisco)
FanDuel Price: $4,600
numberFire Projected Points: 14.2
St. Louis will travel to San Francisco, who has the third lowest projected point total of Week 17 and has given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season.
The Rams rank fifth in Adjusted Defensive NEP (-20.89), have forced the eighth most (25) turnovers in the NFL and have racked up 4 sacks in twice in their last three games.
Among the 39 quarterbacks with 150 or more drop backs this season, Blaine Gabbert’s -0.06 Passing NEP per drop back ranks 36th, and he is playing behind the offensive line that has allowed a league-worst 52 sacks already.
St. Louis is right in the middle of the pricing scale this week and has our highest projected fantasy point total. This one is a no-brainer for all of your lineups.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee)
FanDuel Price: $4,200
numberFire Projected Points: 8.87
The Colts are are home in this divisional rematch against the Titans, who have allowed the most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing defenses this season.
The Titans also lead the league with 32 turnovers and have allowed the second most (50) sacks in the NFL.
Indianapolis currently ranks sixth with 16 interceptions and is coming into this game red hot after racking up 12 sacks over their last three games.
Tennessee will be led once again by Zach Mettenberger, whose -0.18 Passing NEP per drop back ranks dead last among the 39 quarterbacks with 150 or more drop backs this season.
The Colts will need to win to have a chance at the playoffs, while the Titans are already eliminated. In fact, if the Titans lose, they could actually end up dead last in the NFL and earn the first overall draft pick for next season.
At only $4,200 and the seventh highest projected fantasy point total, the Colts are a great play if you’re looking to spend up elsewhere in your lineup.
If you need to save an additional $100, look no further than the other side of the ball in this game. The Titans defense will be up against the third string quarterback for the Colts this week, whoever that might be.
