FanDuel Defenses to Target in Week 14
The best part about picking defenses in daily fantasy formats is that -- whether you locked in a first-round bye in the playoffs in your season-long league or you're already eliminated -- you only have to use them for one week.
There's no need to worry about next week's matchup.
This week's top pick is one of the better values we've had all season, as the team with the most projected FanDuel points is priced under $5,000. We also have two lower price options in case you wish to spend up on other players or you want to enter multiple lineups.
We have chosen and analyzed each matchup this week with the help of our signature metric, Net Expected Points (NEP), which compares a team's or player's performance relative to expectation-level.
Here are three defenses to consider for your Week 14 FanDuel lineups.
New York Jets (vs. Tennessee)
FanDuel Price: $4,800
numberFire Projected Points: 14.03
Tennessee has the third lowest projected point total in the NFL this week against the Jets, whose -8.72 Adjusted Defensive NEP ranks seventh in the league.
The Titans rank 31st in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, sacks allowed (39), and fumbles lost (12), while the Jets have recovered the second most fumbles in the league (11) and have recorded 3 or more sacks in 7 of their 12 games.
New York will get a boost to their pass defense if Darrelle Revis is able to return to the lineup this week.
At only $4,800 and projected to score at least four more points than any other team, the Jets are our top play for Week 14.
St. Louis Rams (vs. Detroit)
FanDuel Price: $4,600
numberFire Projected Points: 9.42
The Lions will be on the road this week in the game with the lowest over/under of Week 14.
They’re coming into the game after giving up 22 sacks over their past six games and will have to deal with the Rams defense that has at least one sack in 11 of their 12 games.
St. Louis ranks fourth in Adjusted Defensive NEP (-14.95) despite a tough schedule including playing their last two games against teams that have allowed the second and third fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses.
This is a much easier matchup against the Lions and Matthew Stafford, who ranks 27th in Passing NEP per drop back (0.07) among all quarterbacks with 100 or more drop backs this season.
The Rams aren’t quite playing at the dominant level that we saw in the beginning of the season, but their discounted price tag reflects that and makes them a great mid-priced value play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. New Orleans)
FanDuel Price: $4,300
numberFire Projected Points: 8.28
Mark Ingram is out for the rest of the season, leaving Tim Hightower and C.J. Spiller, who have a combined 43 carries this year, as the top running backs for the Saints. They won't have an easy time taking over against the Tampa Bay defense whose -17.72 Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP ranks eighth in the NFL.
Combine that with the Saints’ inability to stop any offense, and the result is Drew Brees having to throw a lot. Brees has already attempted the sixth most (456) passes in the NFL with seven games over 40 passing attempts.
That provides more opportunities for Brees to throw an interception, which he has done in all but two games this season. The Buccaneers’ defense has intercepted eight passes over their past six games.
Tampa Bay has a big opportunity to rack up points via sacks in this game, as they have had three sacks in each of their last four games. The Saints have allowed 10 sacks over their last four games and gave up 4 sacks to Tampa Bay in their first meeting this season.
The Buccaneers’ defense has proved this season that they can still get double-digit fantasy points in a game where they give up multiple touchdowns, and their low price will allow you more room to spend up elsewhere in your lineup.
