Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota Are Having Better Rookie Seasons Than You Think
Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota will always be connected to each other. That's just what happens when you're a first-round quarterback in today's NFL -- the media will consistently compare you to other first-round passers from your draft class.
So, with that being said, how have Winston and Mariota compared thus far in their rookie campaigns? How about versus other rookie passers over the past decade?
Ideal Start
Based on our Net Expected Points (NEP) metrics, both quarterbacks are having close to ideal rookie campaigns. Within context, of course.
Over the past 10 seasons, 24 rookie quarterbacks have taken at least 300 drop backs. Winston and Mariota rank tied for fourth and sixth, respectively, in per drop back efficiency. Their 0.10 and 0.08 values in these categories bode well for the two quarterbacks -- Robert Griffin III is the only quarterback ahead of them who hasn't sustained success in his career, which can be partially -- partially - attributed to injury.
Year | Team | Name | Passing NEP per Drop Back |
---|---|---|---|
2008 | ATL | Matt Ryan | 0.20 |
2012 | SEA | Russell Wilson | 0.20 |
2012 | WAS | Robert Griffin III | 0.17 |
2011 | CIN | Andy Dalton | 0.10 |
2011 | CAR | Cam Newton | 0.10 |
2015 | TB | Jameis Winston | 0.10 |
2015 | TEN | Marcus Mariota | 0.08 |
2012 | IND | Andrew Luck | 0.05 |
2014 | MIN | Teddy Bridgewater | 0.05 |
2006 | ARI | Matt Leinart | 0.05 |
2008 | BAL | Joe Flacco | -0.02 |
2012 | CLE | Brandon Weeden | -0.04 |
2012 | MIA | Ryan Tannehill | -0.04 |
2010 | STL | Sam Bradford | -0.05 |
2014 | OAK | Derek Carr | -0.07 |
2011 | MIN | Christian Ponder | -0.10 |
2006 | TEN | Vince Young | -0.12 |
2009 | TB | Josh Freeman | -0.13 |
2009 | DET | Matthew Stafford | -0.14 |
2013 | BUF | E.J. Manuel | -0.14 |
2013 | NYJ | Geno Smith | -0.14 |
2009 | NYJ | Mark Sanchez | -0.18 |
2014 | JAX | Blake Bortles | -0.18 |
2011 | JAX | Blaine Gabbert | -0.19 |
Both having efficiency at Cam Newton levels is only a good sign.
Next, we can look at their Passing Success Rates, which represent the percentage of positively plays (via NEP) made by the quarterbacks. Mariota is fourth and Winston is eighth among the subset. Again, Griffin III is the only quarterback ahead of them to not sustain success.
Year | Team | Name | Pass Successes | Pass Success Rate |
---|---|---|---|---|
2012 | SEA | Russell Wilson | 214 | 50.23% |
2012 | WAS | Robert Griffin III | 206 | 48.24% |
2008 | ATL | Matt Ryan | 216 | 48.00% |
2015 | TEN | Marcus Mariota | 153 | 47.37% |
2011 | CIN | Andy Dalton | 257 | 46.47% |
2011 | CAR | Cam Newton | 257 | 46.47% |
2014 | MIN | Teddy Bridgewater | 204 | 46.26% |
2015 | TB | Jameis Winston | 172 | 46.23% |
2012 | IND | Andrew Luck | 292 | 43.78% |
2012 | MIA | Ryan Tannehill | 227 | 43.74% |
2010 | STL | Sam Bradford | 269 | 43.11% |
2006 | ARI | Matt Leinart | 171 | 42.96% |
2012 | CLE | Brandon Weeden | 230 | 42.20% |
2013 | BUF | E.J. Manuel | 140 | 42.04% |
2009 | TB | Josh Freeman | 130 | 41.94% |
2008 | BAL | Joe Flacco | 191 | 41.43% |
2009 | DET | Matthew Stafford | 164 | 41.00% |
2014 | OAK | Derek Carr | 255 | 41.00% |
2013 | NYJ | Geno Smith | 198 | 40.82% |
2009 | NYJ | Mark Sanchez | 154 | 39.59% |
2011 | MIN | Christian Ponder | 125 | 38.94% |
2014 | JAX | Blake Bortles | 203 | 38.30% |
2006 | TEN | Vince Young | 140 | 36.75% |
2011 | JAX | Blaine Gabbert | 161 | 35.54% |
Having a strong combination of both Passing NEP per drop back and Success Rate should help them progress going forward -- with neither of these values being low, we know that both quarterbacks are not relying on occasional deep balls to help them have unstable averages. In other words, both quarterbacks shouldn't be at risk for regression.
Future Implications
Given how they've played, Mariota's and Winston are both trending towards surpassing Cam Newton's Passing NEP total during his rookie season. And they've both already surpassed Andrew Luck's rookie season Passing NEP total of 36.68.
While Winston is dealing with injuries around him, a healthy supporting cast should help him continue to develop going forward, as he has Mike Evans, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Vincent Jackson.
And this week finally showed that Dorial Green-Beckham is capable of becoming a breakout star in the league, and pairing him with Delanie Walker can help Mariota continue to develop.
In the end, the future is bright for these two quarterbacks and -- if history tells us anything -- we should be enjoying them lead their teams for years to come.