NFL

NFL Schedule Impact: Which Teams Saw Their Playoff Odds Drop Most?

The NFL schedule was released yesterday, and if you're a fan of the Packers, you probably shouldn't be happy.

We had four NHL playoff games, three postseason NBA contests and a full 15-game MLB slate last night.

But all people could talk about is the NFL. And schedules.

This is the sports world we live in, America.

The NFL schedule release happened yesterday, and apparently that trumps actual live sporting events. As someone who follows and writes about football far more than any other sport, I'm totally fine with that. As a logical human being living in society, I can only wonder if we're all a little sick in the head because of football.

Maybe Gary Bettman should just do better. (Shots fired.)

After yesterday's big schedule release, our Chief Analyst, Keith Goldner, ran some interesting numbers to show how the schedule impacts each team. He first showed each team's division, playoff and Super Bowl chances with a randomly-generated schedule. You can find that in the table below, sorted by Super Bowl winning odds.

TeamDivision (Random)Playoffs (Random)SB Champ (Random)
SEA68.85%84.29%17.55%
GB58.71%78.29%12.72%
DEN64.38%76.96%11.48%
NE54.93%73.64%11.08%
BAL46.53%64.58%6.45%
DAL50.14%64.80%5.95%
DET32.17%57.81%4.91%
HOU55.31%66.35%4.75%
IND41.67%54.89%3.67%
PIT31.79%51.32%3.08%
BUF23.42%46.49%2.76%
PHI31.09%46.07%2.18%
CAR38.12%45.15%1.90%
MIA18.11%36.94%1.66%
ATL31.95%38.82%1.52%
KC18.35%35.76%1.38%
ARI14.04%35.92%1.36%
CIN18.21%34.72%1.16%
SD15.79%31.13%1.02%
SF10.04%29.51%0.88%
NO27.22%33.21%0.84%
STL7.07%21.63%0.48%
NYG12.74%23.26%0.44%
MIN5.89%16.65%0.34%
WAS6.03%11.60%0.12%
NYJ3.53%10.08%0.12%
CHI3.23%9.31%0.12%
CLE3.47%9.25%0.08%
JAC1.98%2.90%0.02%
OAK1.48%3.41%0.00%
TB2.72%3.69%0.00%
TEN1.04%1.58%0.00%

There aren't a ton of surprises here, as the league's four best regular season teams last year own the highest odds of winning the Super Bowl in 2015. If you're a Raiders, Bucs or Titans fan, feel free to yell at Chief Keith in the comments section below.

This is the result of a randomly-generated schedule, though. Based on the actual schedules, here's how things look, sorted once again by Super Bowl odds.

TeamDivision Win OddsPlayoffsSB Champ
SEA66.97%82.33%18.21%
DEN60.60%73.34%11.10%
GB52.40%70.05%10.94%
NE45.09%66.71%9.75%
BAL52.72%68.23%7.31%
DAL53.29%65.38%6.59%
HOU59.31%68.71%4.77%
DET33.77%54.41%4.55%
BUF31.45%55.75%3.47%
IND34.01%49.36%3.17%
PIT28.13%47.04%3.06%
PHI26.28%41.17%2.30%
CAR34.86%45.01%2.06%
MIA19.49%40.97%2.04%
ATL33.27%44.43%1.80%
KC18.21%32.15%1.48%
ARI11.08%29.17%1.30%
SF12.28%30.31%1.22%
NO27.10%37.74%1.04%
SD19.55%33.09%0.96%
CIN13.76%26.90%0.74%
STL9.66%25.86%0.66%
NYG13.94%23.76%0.52%
MIN9.03%19.65%0.30%
WAS6.49%11.20%0.14%
CLE5.39%11.20%0.14%
NYJ3.97%10.78%0.12%
CHI4.81%12.22%0.12%
TB4.77%7.31%0.10%
JAC3.59%6.19%0.04%
OAK1.64%3.81%0.02%
TEN3.10%5.75%0.00%

Based on the actual schedule, Seattle's chances of lifting the Lombardi jumped a bit, while Green Bay went from having the second best odds to ranking third.

In case you missed it, Tennessee still has a zero percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

To make things a little easier, here's a look at the differences between the two tables. This is sorted by biggest jump in playoff odds. (This is probably the table you should care about most.)

TeamDiff DivisionDiff PlayoffsDiff SB
BUF8.03%9.27%0.72%
ATL1.32%5.61%0.28%
NO-0.12%4.53%0.20%
STL2.60%4.23%0.18%
TEN2.06%4.17%0.00%
MIA1.38%4.03%0.38%
BAL6.19%3.65%0.86%
TB2.06%3.61%0.10%
JAC1.62%3.29%0.02%
MIN3.13%3.00%-0.04%
CHI1.58%2.92%0.00%
HOU3.99%2.36%0.02%
SD3.75%1.96%-0.06%
CLE1.92%1.96%0.06%
SF2.24%0.80%0.34%
NYJ0.44%0.70%0.00%
DAL3.15%0.58%0.64%
NYG1.20%0.50%0.08%
OAK0.16%0.40%0.02%
CAR-3.25%-0.14%0.16%
WAS0.46%-0.40%0.02%
SEA-1.88%-1.96%0.66%
DET1.60%-3.39%-0.36%
KC-0.14%-3.61%0.10%
DEN-3.77%-3.61%-0.38%
PIT-3.65%-4.27%-0.02%
PHI-4.81%-4.89%0.12%
IND-7.67%-5.53%-0.50%
ARI-2.96%-6.75%-0.06%
NE-9.84%-6.93%-1.34%
CIN-4.45%-7.83%-0.42%
GB-6.31%-8.25%-1.78%

According to our numbers, the Packers actually have the most difficult schedule in the upcoming season, which drops their playoff chances by 8.25%. Meanwhile, Buffalo's schedule, per our metrics, gives them the biggest jump in playoff potential.

Only 141 days until it all begins.