NFL Survivor Pool Best Bets: Week 17

I’m A Survivor: Maximize Your Winnings Week 17

Most people, when picking for their eliminator pool, just pick the team with the best chance to win that week. The best way to maximize your chances of winning, however, is to make a decision based on what teams other people are picking. If 75 percent of the population is picking the top game, you stand to gain from picking the second best option. That way, even though both teams are likely to win, if the top team is upset (see: Patriots, Week 2), 75 percent of the pool has been eliminated and you are still standing. Using every possible combination of game outcomes for the week (65,000+), we tell you who maximizes your potential gains.

Week 17's Top Picks

San Francisco over Arizona (83.5% Win Probability)
The 49ers dropped down to the third seed, and while they have clinched a playoff spot, they are still fighting for a first round bye. Expect them to come out in full force versus a brutal Arizona squad.

Denver over Kansas City (81.0% Win Probability)
The Broncos have won ten straight and are the hottest team in the NFL right now. Kansas City is 2-14. You don’t need us to do the math.

New England over Miami (79.3% Win Probability)
The Patriots are downright dominant on offense and still have an outside shot at both a first round bye and home field advantage. Assuming the Patriots beat the Dolphins, if both Denver and Houston lose, the AFC playoffs will go through Foxborough.

This week’s most picked teams:
1. Seattle Seahawks over St. Louis Rams (19.9%)
2. Atlanta Falcons over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11.6%)
3. New Orleans Saints over Carolina Panthers (8.9%)

Who to Pick

San Francisco 49ers (82.3 adjusted win odds)
Most of the top teams will obviously have been picked at this point. I like Seattle at 66.04% adjusted win odds (despite being the most popular pick) and San Diego over Oakland.

Full Adjusted Win Odds (Based on population picks)