Why Chris Hogan Should Be on Your Fantasy Football Radar
Chris Hogan bounced around on three teams in 2011 before landing on the Bills in 2012. He saw a grand total of 10 receptions in his first three seasons in the league. The slow start to his career, as well as playing in Buffalo, have kept him off of most people's fantasy radars, despite the success he's seen since his 5 reception, 72 yard, 1 touchdown coming out party in Week 6. Hogan has been fairly consistent, and offers you a ton of value as a waiver pickup if your league-mates have been sleeping on him.
Opportunity
Since his Week 6 emergence, Hogan is third on the Bills in targets with 29, good for 16% of the team total. While that 16% isn't hugely exciting, over the Bills' last three games, Hogan seems to have overtaken Robert Woods in the receiver hierarchy, recording more targets and playing more snaps than Woods. Even if Hogan's share of the Bills' targets were to stay around the 16% mark, with Orton attempting 38 passes per game, Hogan would average about 6 targets a week, enough to remain a viable fantasy option, especially in points per reception leagues.
Efficiency
Hogan has been the most efficient wideout for the Bills so far on a per-target basis. Here's a look at how he stacks up against the three other top receivers in Buffalo:
| Player | Reception Net Expected Points | per Target | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hogan | 26.57 | 0.86 | 84% |
| Sammy Watkins | 60.92 | 0.73 | 93% |
| Robert Woods | 25.49 | 0.40 | 64% |
| Mike Williams | 10.74 | 0.57 | 75% |
He has already moved into second on the team in Reception Net Expected Points (NEP), which measures how many points above or below expectation a player contributes to his team on any given play and sits in first in Reception NEP per target.
This efficiency not only tops Buffalo receivers, but also it holds up impressively among the top receivers in the league - Hogan ranks 14th in Reception NEP per target among receivers with 30 or more targets.
Hogan's Upside
While Hogan already offers value as a solid option at wide receiver in fantasy, he's got the kind of upside that could make him an every week start.
As I already mentioned, he has seen more targets and snaps, and generally outplayed Robert Woods as of late. If he continues to widen this gap and become the definitive number-two option behind Sammy Watkins, he could see an even bigger increase in targets (Woods has seen 10-plus targets twice this year).
Another thing that Hogan offers is a lot of touchdown potential. Since coming onto the scene in Week 6, Hogan is tied with tight end Scott Chandler for the team lead with six targets in the red zone. With Buffalo having run the 11th-most passing plays in the red zone this year, this should provide Hogan with lots of opportunities to get into the end zone.
With only 1% ownership on Yahoo at the moment, the odds are good that Hogan is sitting on the waiver wire in your league right now. With a combination of solid opportunity, efficiency and touchdown potential, Hogan is a very real fantasy option at this point, and you should take advantage of how overlooked he has been.
