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NFL Survivor Pool Best Bets: Week 14

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Do you keep forgetting about Tampa Bay? Chief Analyst Keith Goldner says that's a bad idea.

I’m A Survivor: Maximize Your Winnings Week 14

Most people, when picking for their eliminator pool, just pick the team with the best chance to win that week. The best way to maximize your chances of winning, however, is to make a decision based on what teams other people are picking. If 75% of the population is picking the top game, you stand to gain from picking the second best option. That way, even though both teams are likely to win, if the top team is upset (see: Patriots, Week 2), 75% of the pool has been eliminated and you are still standing. Using every possible combination of game outcomes for the week (65,000+), we tell you who maximizes your potential gains.

Week 14's Top Picks

Tampa Bay over Philadelphia (84.3% Win Probability)
Despite being very much in the playoff hunt, people seem to underrate the Bucs. They own the No. 2 opponent-adjusted rushing defense in the NFC and as that seems to be Philly’s only strong point, this game shouldn’t be close.

San Francisco over Miami (81.8% Win Probability)
The Niners are sticking with Colin Kaepernick despite the loss to St. Louis, which is surprising considering Alex Smith’s efficient early play. Miami should have their hands full as they face the No. 2 rushing attack in the NFL.

Seattle over Arizona (80.1% Win Probability)
Russell Wilson seems to be the real deal. With last-second win after last-second win, Wilson leads the No. 3 opponent-adjusted passing offense in the NFL. I’ll repeat that. Seattle has the No. 3 passing attack in the entire league.

This week’s most picked teams:
1. Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals (50.0%)
2. Indianapolis Colts over Tennessee Titans (14.5%)
3. San Francisco 49ers over Miami Dolphins (13.3%)

Who to Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (82.0 adjusted win odds)
If you already picked Tampa Bay, since we suggested them earlier this year, look to Cincy over Dallas or Seattle, even though it’s the population pick.

Full Adjusted Win Odds (Based on population picks)

TeamAdj Win Odds
TB82.0%
SF76.7%
DEN75.3%
NE68.5%
NYG66.9%
GB64.0%
CIN63.5%
SEA62.0%
WAS61.3%
NYJ61.0%
IND60.8%
CLE59.9%
PIT53.1%
BUF52.9%
CHI52.0%
ATL50.6%
CAR49.5%
MIN48.0%
STL47.1%
SD46.9%
KC40.1%
TEN39.2%
JAC39.0%
BAL38.7%
ARI38.0%
DAL36.5%
DET36.0%
NO33.1%
HOU31.5%
OAK24.7%
MIA23.3%
PHI18.0%

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