NFL

NFL Weather Report: Week 3

Chris Allen Sep 20th, 2019

Week 2 changed the season-long outlook of many fantasy managers.

The injuries started on Thursday night with Cam Newton aggravating his foot sprain. It got worse from there. Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger needed surgery after the early Sunday games. Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, and Dallas Goedert watched from the sideline as Carson Wentz attempted a comeback win Sunday night. Week 2 ended on Monday with the New York Jets losing their backup quarterback to an injury.

Essentially, you had a good chance to win your Week 2 matchup if your team stayed healthy.

Luckily, weather impacts were muted in Week 2. Rain was limited to a light drizzle (less than .01”) and wind speeds were reduced to manageable conditions (less than 10 MPH). Elevated temperatures were the only issue. Teams were forced to rotate personnel early and often, but the overall impact was minor.

Let’s dive in to the upcoming schedule and hope for more of the same in Week 3.

Overview

Below are the games with weather concerns as we head in to Week 3.

Game Temp Feels Like Chance of Precipitation Wind
Bengals at Bills 80.8 82.8 5% 17 mph SW
Rams at Browns 76.5 77 29% 14 mph SSW
Ravens at Chiefs 71.3 71.5 28% 9 mph NNW
Broncos at Packers 67.8 67.8 21% 12 mph W
Saints at Seahawks 61.8 61.5 48% 7 mph SSW
Giants at Buccaneers 87.8 92.8 6% 13 mph ENE

Games Impacted by Wind

Cincinnati Bengals (19.00-point implied total) at Buffalo Bills (25.00)

Thursday Night Football was… well it was something. Forecast showed wind speeds at 17 MPH and rain headed towards Jacksonville. The game ended with Marcus Mariota taking nine sacks and the game total hitting the under. Buffalo’s forecast is showing similar wind conditions, but Andy Dalton hasn’t been as affected in past years in games with high winds.

Attempts Average Attempts AY/A Fantasy Points
32 32.25 8.88 14.46
46 33 6.65 21.74
38 36.63 11.66 31.52
23 30.1 5.39 12.59
35 30.1 5.94 9.38
33 29.7 9.18 19.52
28 35.2 12.43 20.32
29 31 4 7.64

His worst performances came against Tennessee, Houston, and Chicago, lending credence to the idea that the defensive matchup plays a larger role. New Era Field sits at a 122.2 degree azimuth pointing in a Northwest direction. Winds will be coming from the Southwest creating a crosswind. In addition, Buffalo has limited opposing passing games to less than 200 yards passing through Week 2. Dalton has been a viable streamer to open the season due to Cincinnati’s 72.9% neutral passing rate. However, in Week 3, fantasy managers are advised to look elsewhere.

Games Impacted by Rain

Los Angeles Rams (26.25-point implied total) at Cleveland Browns (23.25)

Baltimore Ravens (24.25) at Kansas City Chiefs (30.75)

Denver Broncos (17.50) at Green Bay Packers (25.00)

New Orleans Saints (20.00) at Seattle Seahawks (24.50)

While each game has a 20% chance or greater of rain, the highest amount of precipitation is .03 inches per hour in Seattle. For reference, that translates to light rain.

Condition Precipitation (inches per hour)
Light Rain .01 - .1
Moderate .1 - .3
Heavy Rain >= .3


While it’s nothing we can project, players slipped and lost the ball in rain on the same field in Week 1. These are seemingly random events that can occur under these conditions. All of the viable starters in this game are still in play, but pace of play may be altered by turnover or lost ball.

Games Impacted by Heat

New York Giants (20.5-point implied total) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27.00)

The New England Patriots were spotted using makeshift tents to combat the Florida heat in Week 2. Ancillary players were rotated in as the temperatures nearly reached 100 degrees. Humidity is always a concern. However, there have been no documented cases of heat impacting players who were healthy entering the game this season. Peripheral players may see a slight drop in snaps, but overall touches and targets should be maintained.