3 Daily Fantasy Football Players to Avoid in Week 3
We have loads of pieces on numberFire dedicated to helping you figure out which plays you should target in your daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel and DraftKings. And you should definitely check them all out!
But an underrated aspect of the DFS process is figuring out who you shouldn't play. Narrowing down your short list of potential plays by avoiding those who are overpriced and/or in tough matchups goes a long way towards ensuring that you create optimal lineups.
Let's go through three guys to consider fading on this week's DFS main slates.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $7,800
DraftKings Price: $6,200
As massive 22.0-point favorites over the New York Jets, the New England Patriots could be in high demand this week, and that makes sense as an implied team total of 32.75 points in something we want to invest in. It just may not make much sense to roster quarterback Tom Brady.
Projected as our 13th-highest scoring quarterback, Brady is up against a Jets D that has been pretty stout against the pass this year, ranking sixth by our schedule-adjusted numbers. Where they haven't been as good is against the run, where they slip a bit back to 15th.
And with such a positive game script potentially in store, it's Sony Michel and the running attack that is a bit more enticing. Couple that with New England's 24th-ranked situation-neutral pace (30.02 seconds), and Brady is one to shy away from this week.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Price: $8,000
DraftKings Price: $8,000
It may feel like the inclusion of Alvin Kamara is solely based on Drew Brees' injury, and it is likely that this offense should step back a bit with Teddy Bridgewater or Taysom Hill at the helm.
But it's also important to point out that the New Orleans Saints' opponent this week, the Seattle Seahawks, has been a real pain to deal with for opposing running backs. Through two weeks, Seattle ranks as the league's best rushing defense, posting a mark of -0.49 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry. You read that right -- teams are roughly losing half a point every time they rush the ball against the 'Hawks.
While Kamara has been heavily involved, he hasn't been that efficient. So far among the running backs with 20 or more carries (32) this year, he ranks only 20th in the league in Rushing NEP per attempt (-0.04).
He will likely be a factor in the passing game, but it isn't a week to be heavy on the Saints' lead back.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel Price: $7,500
DraftKings Price: $6,900
In the top-10 in terms of cost among wide receivers, JuJu Smith-Schuster has a pretty challenging matchup on tap in Week 3, and we need to think about avoiding him.
While there's some uncertainty around this passing tree with Ben Roethlisberger done for the year, Mason Rudolph's clip of 5.9 yards per attempt last week showcased this may not be the most vertical of offenses, though the sample is obviously small there.
What we do know is that this offense has not showcased an ability to move quickly, ranking only 19th in situation-neutral pace this year (31.76 seconds per play).
That ignores the fact that Pittsburgh faces a San Francisco 49ers pass defense which we rank as the league's best through two weeks and has been really getting after the quarterback. The 49ers sit fifth in Adjusted Sack Rate (9.3%), so expect it to be a tough passing day for Pittsburgh.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
