Week 10 NFL FanDuel Late Afternoon Slate Breakdown
The Week 10 late afternoon slate (4:05pm ET) features a trio of games, all of which carry some fantasy appeal.
|Matchup (Implied Team Total)||Game Total|
|Seattle Seahawks (20.50) at Los Angeles Rams (30.50)||51.0|
|Los Angeles Chargers (30.00) at Oakland Raiders (20.00)||50.0|
|Miami Dolphins (18.75) at Green Bay Packers (28.75)||47.5|
Elsewhere, the Los Angeles Chargers take on a seemingly tanking Oakland Raiders team, losers of four straight. Wrapping up the slate, the Green Bay Packers look to rebound off two straight losses against a Miami Dolphins team that will once again start Brock Osweiler at quarterback. The Chargers, Rams, and Packers are all 10.0-point favorites, so there may be three blowouts on tap.
Among the tournaments on FanDuel this week, we have the $300,000 NFL Rush, which costs $9.99 to play and pays out $100,000 to the winner. The $40 NFL Bomb pays out $8,000 to whomever tops the 1,426-entry field and costs $33 to enter. On the single entry side, the $35,000 NFL Spike costs $5 to play and pays out $4,000 to first.
Now, let's break down the top plays and fades at each position.
Lock: Aaron Rodgers ($8,600) - The most expensive quarterback on the slate, Rodgers will face a Dolphins pass defense in Week 10 that ranks as the league's seventh-worst, per numberFire's metrics. Prior to Sam Darnold's rough outing against Miami in Week 9, the previous three quarterbacks to face the Dolphins combined to throw 10 touchdowns and averaged 25.6 FanDuel points. The Packers are big favorites here so Rodgers may not be forced to throw late in the game, but volume shouldn't be a huge concern as Rodgers has thrown fewer than 40 passes in only two of eight games. If the Packers jump out to a big lead, it will most likely be behind a big game from Rodgers.
Fade: Derek Carr ($6,600) - Among the cheapest starting quarterbacks on the slate, Carr has thrown multiple touchdowns just once over the past four games. Over that span, he's also been held below 200 passing yards and 10 FanDuel points twice. He'll now face the Chargers' defense for a second time this season and the first matchup didn't go well. In Week 5, Carr threw for 268 yards and 1 touchdown, but he also threw an interception and took 3 sacks in a 26-10 loss.
Sleeper: Russell Wilson ($7,700) - Although there's a 10.0-point spread in each of the three games on the slate, the Seahawks would seem to be the team most likely to turn their game into a shootout. The Rams and Seahawks have the highest over/under on the slate at 51.0, and the Rams pass defense has been susceptible since losing Aqib Talib. Most notably, Drew Brees torched the Rams for four touchdowns in Week 9, but back in Week 5, Wilson tagged the Rams for three touchdowns himself. Wilson has been thriving on limited passing attempts this year, but against the Chargers last week, he notched season highs in pass attempts (39) and rushing yards (41). This week's matchup sets up similar to last week's for Wilson, so he should once again be throwing often against a vulnerable Rams secondary.
Lock: Melvin Gordon ($8,900) - Both Gordon and Todd Gurley ($10,800) are among the top plays on the slate, but we'll touch on Gordon here since the Raiders' run defense ranks as the second-worst, per numberFire metrics. In the last meeting between these two teams, Gordon had only 58 rushing yards and a touchdown, but he added 4 catches for 62 yards, finishing with 20 FanDuel points. On the season, the Raiders are facing the second-most rushing attempts per game (29.9) and are allowing the most rushing yards per game (144.5). That bodes well for Gordon, who is averaging nearly 20 touches per game.
Fade: Doug Martin ($5,800) - Martin carries one of the lower costs among all running backs, but this week should set up better for Jalen Richard as the Raiders are 10.0-point underdogs. Over the past two weeks, Martin has led the team in carries, but he and Richard have been splitting the snaps near evenly with 55.7% for Martin and 45.4% for Richard. With the game being a blowout last week, DeAndre Washington even got involved, notching five carries. In the last two games, Richard has seen 12 targets, compared to just 4 for Martin. In what could be another lopsided loss for the Raiders, Richard should be more heavily involved this week.
Sleeper: Mike Davis ($5,800) - Davis will be a much less appealing option if Chris Carson is active for this week's game, but Carson has been sitting out of practice early in week and it appears like he'll be a game-time call again this week. Should Carson sit, Davis will most likely take over as the lead back. After Carson left last week's game, Davis went on to finish with 15 carries for 62 yards and 7 receptions for 45 yards. Davis has already filled in once for Carson this season. Back in Week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals, he had 21 carries for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns, and also added 4 catches for 23 yards. The Rams' run defense ranks as the sixth-worst, per numberFire metrics, and with the Seahawks showing they'll give Davis 20 or more touches with Carson sidelined, Davis is squarely in play for Week 10.
Lock: Keenan Allen ($7,900) - Coming out of the Chargers' bye, Allen saw 10 targets against the Seahawks in Week 9, his second-most on the season. He finished that game with 6 receptions for 124 yards and added 2 carries for 28 yards. Now Allen will face a Raiders pass defense that ranks as the league's worst, per numberFire metrics. The Raiders had their bye in Week 7, but in the two subsequent games, Andrew Luck and Nick Mullens have combined to throw 6 touchdowns as the Raiders defense allowed 76 points over that span. Allen leads the Chargers with a 27% target share, but he still only has 1 of Philip Rivers's 19 touchdown passes. Allen is primed to start scoring touchdowns again and that could start this week.
Fade: Josh Reynolds ($5,600) - With Cooper Kupp back in the lineup last week against the Saints, Reynolds only played 2 of 60 offensive snaps. Kupp, on the other hand, was on the field for all 60 of the Rams' plays. Reynolds has fantasy value when one of the Rams top three receivers miss time, but with Kupp, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods all healthy, Reynolds doesn't see enough playing time.
Sleeper: David Moore ($5,800) - Moore is probably most remembered for dropping a potentially game-tying touchdown against the Chargers last week, but there were some positive signs for Moore coming out of Week 9. He played a season high in snaps (78%) and he saw seven targets, the most he has seen in any game this season. Moore caught just two of those seven targets, but only Nick Vannett and Mike Davis saw more targets (eight) than Moore last week. As discussed earlier with Wilson, the Rams' pass defense has been vulnerable in recent weeks and the Seahawks may be throwing often to keep pace. In the last matchup with the Rams, Moore had 3 catches for 38 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Lock: Jimmy Graham ($6,300) - The most expensive tight end on the slate, Graham will face a Dolphins defense that has allowed a stunning five touchdowns to opposing tight ends over the past four weeks. Both Michael Roberts and Jordan Thomas tagged the Dolphins for multi-score games. Graham, meanwhile, ranks second on the Packers in targets (55), behind only Davante Adams (87), and he's seen just one fewer target than Adams inside the 10-yard line (5 to 4). Against a Dolphins defense prone to giving up big fantasy performances to tight ends, Graham is worth paying up for this week.
Fade: Jared Cook ($5,500) - Cook started the season hot, but he's seen his playing time dip in recent weeks. Prior to the Raiders' Week 7 bye, Cook had played no fewer than 78% of the team's snaps. But in the two weeks since the bye, Cook has been on the field for just 61% of the team's plays. Cook did find the end zone in Week 8, but over the past two games, he's seen just seven targets, none of which have come inside the red zone. In his last game against the Chargers, Cook had 4 catches for 20 yards.
Sleeper: Nick Vannett ($5,200) - There aren't many enticing tight end plays this week, but Vannett should be the favored Seahawks tight end over Ed Dickson. In Week 9, Vannett played more snaps (59%) than Dickson (31%) and out-targeted him 8 to 1. Vannett finished with 6 receptions for 52 yards and a touchdown. On the season, Vannett has actually seen the second-most targets (29) from Russell Wilson, trailing only Tyler Lockett (38).
Blair Ames is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Blair Ames also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Bames31. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.