4 Betting Trends to Help Set Your Week 10 Daily Fantasy Football Lineup
When making tough decisions in daily fantasy football, Vegas lines can be predictive of fantasy scoring, while providing an edge on the competition.
Unfortunately, as professional NFL handicapper Warren Sharp has pointed out, oddsmakers' primary goal is not to set the most accurate lines; their goal is to make money, and they do that by encouraging public action on a particular side. What does that mean?
Let's say a sportsbook opens the line on a game with Team X favored to beat Team Y by seven points. If 80% of the public money coming in is in favor of Team X against the spread but the book still does not adjust the line, that demonstrates that either there is sharp money on Team Y, or that they feel confident about Team Y against the spread. Either way, by examining how the oddsmakers are moving lines in comparison to where the public is betting, an edge can be gained when making lineup decisions.
Washington Redskins (+3.0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 51.0)
Betting Trends: The Washington Redskins enter this contest against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fresh off a 38-14 dismantling at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers also coming off a 42-28 loss to the Carolina Panthers. So far, a massive 74% of the bets have come in on the Redskins' side of the moneyline, but this contest has actually moved from an even line to the Bucs favored by 3.0 points. This suggests that sharp bettors or bookmakers favor the Buccaneers' side.
Takeaways: The over/under has remained constant here, suggesting Tampa Bay will score more points. Lacking any semblance of a rushing attack, these points will likely fall on the shoulders of Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Tampa pass catchers. Washington has allowed at least 273 passing yards in each of their last four games, including two above 300. After starting strong, the Redskins have fallen to 14th in pass defense according to our metrics.
The 3.0-point line swing also suggests that the Redskins will not score as many points. The Redskins will be without Shawn Lauvao, Trent Williams, and Brandon Scherff on Sunday, which will likely hurt their rushing attack. Also noteworthy, Tampa Bay has played decent run defense, ranking 13th in our metrics, and recently returned difference-makers Gerald McCoy and Vinny Curry.
However, Tampa ranks 31st in pass defense, an area the Redskins will attempt to exploit. Alex Smith and the Redskins have been abysmal throwing the ball, ranking 25th by our metrics. They also could be without Jamison Crowder and recently placed Paul Richardson on injured reserve. This will drive journeyman Michael Floyd and rookie Maurice Harris into the starting lineup. No matter how attractive the matchup looks, Smith and the Redskins simply cannot be trusted on offense. Washington averages just the 25th-most points per game (20.0)
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans (O/U 46.5)
Betting Trends: The New England Patriots come into this week on a six-game winning streak, with the latest a 31-17 victory over the Green Bay Packers. Fresh off a 28-14 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans will look to end the Patriots' impressive steak. Two notable betting trends emerge in this contest, with the Patriots taking 86% of the initial tickets and 79% of bets coming on the over. However, the Patriots have actually dropped from 7.0-point to 6.5-point favorites and the over/under has remained steady at 46.5 despite the heavy action on the over. This indicates that sharps and bookmakers think the Titans will keep this game at least somewhat close and play some defense.
Takeaways: Coming out of the bye, the Titans actually showed some ability to move the ball against an impressive Dallas defense. Dion Lewis emerged as the Titans' primary running back, out-touching Derrick Henry 23-8 and out-snapping him 84% to 20%. Lewis also out-touched Henry 6-1 in the red zone.
The Titans should look to implement Lewis in the passing game, where the Patriots have allowed the second-most receiving yards (550) to running backs. The Patriots have also been generous on the ground, allowing the 11th-most rushing yards to backs (784). This matchup also could benefit Marcus Mariota. The Patriots have allowed the third-most rushing yards (189) and sixth-most passing yards (2,571) to opposing quarterbacks. Ranking 30th in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Sack Rate, Mariota should have ample time to throw on Sunday.
The primary matchup the Patriots will likely try to exploit is Josh Gordon against Malcolm Butler. Butler has allowed a league-high seven touchdowns and 618 yards in his coverage, which bodes well for Gordon on the outside. Aside from Butler, the Titans have played decent defense, limiting opposing tight ends to a league low 268 yards and running backs to 713 rushing yards and two scores.
Seattle Seahawks (+10.0) at Los Angeles Rams (O/U 51.0)
Betting Trends: The Seattle Seahawks enter Week 10 after a disappointing 25-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Likewise, the Los Angeles Rams will look to bounce back after they lost an absolute shootout to the New Orleans Saints 45-35. To start the week, 61% of the bets have come in on Seattle's side of the moneyline, but the line has actually jumped from the Rams favored by 9.5 points up to 10 points. Reverse line movement, such as this, shows some sharp money toward the Los Angeles side.
Takeaways: With the Rams losing a heavily-watched game against the Saints, recency bias has potentially steered the public toward the Seattle side of this contest. To Seattle's credit, they played the Rams close earlier this season, falling by a score of only 33-31.
In that contest, Jared Goff passed for 321 yards, despite Brandin Cooks leaving with an injury. Todd Gurley also gashed the Seahawks for three scores on the ground. Last week, Melvin Gordon blasted Seattle for 113 and a score on the ground, boding well for Gurley's fantasy expectations. Both Shaquill Griffin and Tre Flowers have struggled this season, allowing 92 yards to Robert Woods in Week 5, 117 to Marvin Jones in Week 8, and a pair of scores to outside receivers Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams last week.
On the Seattle side, the Seahawks should look to exploit a positive matchup against Marcus Peters. However, under offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, the Seahawks have remained shockingly committed to the run. Per Sharp Football Stats, Seattle has passed on a league-low 49% of their plays. This has largely crushed the upside of Russell Wilson and all his pass catchers.
With Chris Carson questionable to play, Mike Davis should step into this voluminous role, including work in the pass game after he logged eight targets last week. The Rams have allowed 4.66 yards per carry to backs and volume should carry Davis to a productive day, assuming Carson sits.
Arizona Cardinals (-16.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 50.0)
Betting Trends: Arguably the league's best team, the Kansas City Chiefs are set to face the Arizona Cardinals after beating down the Cleveland Browns 37-21 in Week 9. On the other side, the Cardinals come in fresh of a 18-15 victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 8 and their bye in Week 9. Early line movement here suggests that bookmakers and sharps may favor the Cardinals, with 65% of the money coming in on the Chiefs, but the line dropping from 17 to 16.5-points.
Takeaways: While the Chiefs remain heavy favorites, this movement suggests that the Cardinals may be able to score some points this week. This shouldn't come as a surprise, considering Kansas City fields a bottom-four defense, per our metrics.
The Chiefs have been particularly vulnerable in the run game, boding well for David Johnson. Johnson has at least 17 touches in each of his last five games and showed increased pass game usage in one game with Byron Leftwich as offensive coordinator. In that game, Johnson tied a season-high 41 receiving yards. The Chiefs have allowed the most receiving yardage (634) and the seventh-most rushing yards (975) to backs. According to our metrics, Kansas City ranks dead-last in rush defense.
On the other side, it's wheels up for the entire Kansas City offense. Implied for a monstrous 33.25 points, according to our DFS heat map, Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce should be mixed into lineups.
However, the matchup looks particularly sweet for Hunt as a 16.5-point home favorite. Hunt has at least 18 touches in three straight games and a touchdown eight straight. The Cardinals have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing backs (1,057) and the third-most touchdowns (10).
Matthew Gajewski is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matthew Gajewski also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mgajewski. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.