Biggest NFL Playoff Odds Movers: Week 9
The NFL playoff odds report is back for another season.
If you are new here, every week we’ll be looking at the three teams who saw the biggest increase in playoff odds over the weekend and the three who saw the biggest decline. The numbers take a variety of factors into account, including team strength, remaining schedule and year-to-date results.
This week, despite being idle, the Philadelphia Eagles had the biggest climb, as their playoff odds increased from 44.5% to 66.2%.
On the other side of things, their NFC East foes in Washington had a 22.8% dip, which was the week’s biggest fall.
Winners
Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
Playoff Odds Movement: +21.7%
Week 9 Result: Bye Week
Odds Before Week 9: 44.5%
Odds After Week 9: 66.2%
The Eagles won this week without even playing a game.
Philadelphia’s odds spiked thanks to a pair of upset losses by their chief division rivals, as Washington fell to visiting Atlanta and Dallas lost at home to Tennessee. The losses were critical to the Eagles, as their path to the playoffs almost certainly runs through the NFC East, as their wild card odds are just 4.0%.
Washington (5-3) still leads the division, but our models see the Redskins as the clear inferior team. They rank 20th in our nERD power rankings, which peg them as 2.94 points below average, while the Eagles are 13th (+2.53).
Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, Washington remains a slight favorite to win the NFC East at +105, while Philadelphia is +115. These numbers suggest the Redskins have about a 48.8% of winning the division, compared to a 46.5% chance for the Eagles.
Atlanta Falcons (4-4)
Playoff Odds Movement: +19.8%
Week 9 Result: Def. Washington, 38-14
Odds Before Week 9: 13.5%
Odds After Week 9: 33.3%
As for the teams that actually played over the weekend, no one had a bigger week than Atlanta.
The Falcons still have a ton of work to do, as even after their win, they only have a 33.3% chance of making the playoffs. Still, a loss would have decimated their postseason odds, while the win leaves them with a puncher’s chance.
Atlanta trails Minnesota by one game for the final wild card spot in the NFC, but they are ahead of Philadelphia in the wild card pecking order by virtue of a superior conference record (4-2, compared to the Eagles’ 2-3 mark).
Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1)
Playoff Odds Movement: +15.4%
Week 9 Result: Def. Detroit, 24-9
Odds Before Week 9: 37.4%
Odds After Week 9: 52.8%
The Vikings’ victory over Detroit upped their record to 5-3-1, while also giving them a win inside the NFC North. This is something the Bears, their primary rival for division supremacy, does not have.
Chicago (5-3) remains on top of the division but only because of a few points of winning percentage. Minnesota actually owns the better division record (1-0-1 to 0-1), which is the first tiebreaker after head-to-head record.
Our model still has the Bears as the favorites to win the NFC North (with 55.1% odds versus Minnesota’s 34.2%). The numbers see Chicago as a better team, as the Bears are ranked 4th in nERD while the Vikings are 12th.
That said, the FanDuel Sportsbook betting odds actually have Minnesota pegged as the favorite at +105. This implies a 48.7% probability, compared to the Bears, who are at +145 to win the division (which translates to a 40.8% chance).
Losers
Washington Redskins (5-3)
Playoff Odds Movement: -22.8%
Week 9 Result: Lost to Atlanta, 38-14
Odds Before Week 9: 66.2%
Odds After Week 9: 43.4%
As mentioned in the Philadelphia section, Washington has been surpassed by the Eagles in terms of NFC East odds, according to our model. The Redskins have a 33.3% chance of winning the division and about a 10% chance of earning a wild card berth.
There is obviously a lot that still needs to be settled in the division, as Washington has four remaining games in the division and Philadelphia has five. The two teams will play in Philadelphia in Week 13 before closing out the season in Washington.
Washington appears to have a somewhat easier remaining schedule, as its two games against the Eagles are the only ones left against teams ranked higher than 16th in our power rankings.
Philadelphia also has just two games left against top-15 teams, but those games are road tilts against the Saints and Rams, two of our top ranked teams.
Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
Playoff Odds Movement: -20.7%
Week 9 Result: Lost to Los Angeles Chargers, 25-17
Odds Before Week 9: 53.4%
Odds After Week 9: 32.7%
The Seahawks fell at home to the Chargers on Sunday after watching the other top wild card contenders in the conference pick up victories.
Carolina and Minnesota both won to keep Seattle on the outside looking in, as Seattle is one of three teams in the conference with a 4-4 record. Further hurting their chances is the fact that the Panthers, Vikings and Falcons already have four conference wins banked, while Seattle is 3-2 against the NFC (Carolina and Atlanta are 4-2-0 in conference play, while the Vikings are 4-2-1).
Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
Playoff Odds Movement: -19.5%
Week 9 Result: Lost to Pittsburgh, 23-16
Odds Before Week 9: 42.7%
Odds After Week 9: 23.2%
Our power rankings still really like the Ravens, but with five losses already in the bank, the playoff odds are considerably less enthusiastic. Baltimore, which is fifth in nERD, has outscored opponents by nearly six points per game, but a pair of close losses (an overtime defeat in Cleveland and a one-point loss to Saints) have seriously hurt their chances.
The Ravens are actually looking up at two teams in the NFC North, as Pittsburgh leads the division at 5-2-1 while the Bengals are 5-3. Cincinnati has a head-to-head win over Baltimore as well, and the FanDuel Sportsbook gives the Ravens the third-best division title odds (+430, compared to Cincinnati at +225 and Pittsburgh at -155).
Our models only give them a 5.1% chance of winning the division, meaning their most likely route to the playoffs involves navigating the crowded AFC wild card field.
