3 Player Prop Bets to Target in Week 9
New as of 2018, FanDuel's Sportsbook allow sports fans to place wagers on a variety of contests, including player props. This gives football fans another avenue to exploit their knowledge, in particular with player matchups and game environments.
With that said, here are a few player props that standout on Sunday.
Michael Thomas Over 100+ Receiving Yards / New Orleans Saint Win +280
This player prop parlay between Michael Thomas eclipsing 100 yards and the New Orleans Saints winning outright over the Los Angeles Rams looks particularly attractive this week. A $100 ticket on this player prop parlay nets $280.
Bookmakers currently have the Rams favored 2.0 points on the road, but our models actually like the Saints to win by just over a point. The Saints should be able to take advantage of a weaker Rams secondary, which is missing Aqib Talib and is likely to be sans Sam Shields. This secondary has shown a susceptibility to big plays this season, allowing third-most 20-plus-yard completions (32) and the most completions over 40 yards (10). The Rams have played middling run defense but have allowed 4.75 yards per carry, boding well for Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram in the run game.
Thomas specifically should benefit from the Rams' weaker secondary. Thomas has a massive 27% target share and 31% air yard share in the Saints' offense. Bookmakers expect elevated scoring, giving this game an over/under of 57.5 points, the highest on the slate. While Thomas has had some down weeks of late, the expected elevated scoring should benefit him. Thomas should line up across from Marcus Peters a good deal on Sunday, and Peters has allowed 420 yards and 5 scores in his coverage since suffering a calf injury.
Getting the Saints and their players at a discount as home underdogs, this is the time to invest in a player prop parlay.
Cam Newton Over 250 Passing Yards -108
A bet of $100 on Cam Newton besting 250 passing yards against a porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense nets $92.59.
This season, six of seven quarterbacks to face the Bucs have at least 280 passing yards, with five going over 330. Only Baker Mayfield and the dysfunctional Cleveland Browns failed to hit that mark (215). The Bucs have multiple injuries on their defense, including Vernon Hargreaves III, Chris Conte, M.J. Stewart, and Kwon Alexander -- all of whom are out for Sunday's game.
Newton has shown out as a passer of late, throwing for more than 250 passing yards in two of his last three contests. Tampa Bay has allowed 33.3 points per game this season, and their defense has allowed a massive 2,330 yards through seven games. With Tampa ranking dead-last in pass defense, per our metrics, Newton should have no problem picking apart this rag-tag secondary.
Bookmakers also expect points to be scored in this one, giving it a 55.0-point total. Implied for the second-most points on the slate (30.5), the Carolina Panthers' offense should exceed expectation. Needing a lowly 250 passing yards to cash, Newton eclipsing this prop looks like a lock this weekend.
Brandin Cooks Over 83.5 Receiving Yards -108
Under 75 yards in each of his last three games, Brandin Cooks presents the ultimate buy low in the Rams' offense this weekend. With a lowered player prop of 83.5 receiving yards, a $100 bet on Cooks nets $92.59.
Despite the lowly finishes of late, Cooks has shown promising usage in the Rams' attack. In his last three, Cooks has 19 targets and a massive 397 air yards. Noted above, the Rams find themselves in an elevated scoring environment, with a 57.5-point game total against the Saints. This should theoretically create more opportunities for Cooks in the passing game.
Also working in Cooks' favor is a matchup against a leaky Saints secondary. The Saints have allowed the most yards to receivers this season (1,650) and rank 28th in pass defense, per our metrics. Our models currently project Cooks for 94.30 receiving yards, a full 10 yards above his player prop. Cooks and his prop should be hammered until lines adjust.
