NFL

Fantasy Football: The Report, Week 9

JJ Zachariason  —  @LateRoundQB Oct 31st, 2018

What is The Report? It's a comprehensive, statistical look at how teams and players are functioning offensively, with notes as to what it all means for the fantasy football future. Each week, The Report will feature charts on team play-calling tendencies, player usage close to the end zone, deep ball rates, and so much more. With added commentary, the purpose is to not only hand you information, but provide actionable information to crush both season-long and daily fantasy football.

Let's dig into Week 9's report.

Team Play-Calling

Team Pass Att Rush Att Ratio +/- 6 Ratio RZ Plays RZ Ratio GL Plays GL Ratio
ARI 249 161 1.55 1.30 44 1.44 11 0.83
ATL 270 157 1.72 1.98 61 1.35 14 0.75
BAL 353 215 1.64 1.80 79 1.19 21 0.62
BUF 242 209 1.16 0.88 44 0.83 10 2.33
CAR 239 190 1.26 1.38 55 0.90 13 0.86
CHI 240 206 1.17 1.15 66 1.54 17 1.43
CIN 296 169 1.75 1.63 68 1.72 17 1.43
CLE 307 222 1.38 1.42 60 1.07 23 0.64
DAL 206 194 1.06 1.09 50 1.50 9 1.25
DEN 289 201 1.44 1.27 68 1.52 18 1.00
DET 259 162 1.60 1.54 61 1.54 11 1.20
GB 292 151 1.93 1.70 57 2.17 13 2.25
HOU 262 241 1.09 1.32 94 1.41 35 1.69
IND 343 201 1.71 1.82 95 1.71 25 1.50
JAX 320 179 1.79 1.46 53 1.94 9 3.50
KC 285 200 1.43 1.39 96 1.59 27 0.80
LAC 221 178 1.24 1.23 69 0.97 16 0.78
LAR 255 253 1.01 1.08 116 0.81 26 0.37
MIA 248 189 1.31 1.33 38 0.90 7 2.50
MIN 341 174 1.96 1.81 61 2.39 15 2.00
NE 295 227 1.30 1.51 86 1.10 23 0.77
NO 246 195 1.26 1.42 110 1.08 30 0.67
NYG 316 149 2.12 1.83 79 2.16 21 1.33
NYJ 250 221 1.13 1.15 58 0.81 7 0.75
OAK 261 162 1.61 1.30 68 1.43 15 0.88
PHI 308 208 1.48 1.56 96 1.13 15 0.67
PIT 297 162 1.83 1.67 62 1.58 20 0.54
SEA 182 222 0.82 0.91 47 1.04 13 0.86
SF 258 222 1.16 1.15 81 1.08 22 0.69
TB 292 170 1.72 1.49 71 1.84 16 1.29
TEN 197 192 1.03 1.07 50 1.08 13 0.86
WAS 228 210 1.09 1.19 57 0.73 16 0.33


The leader in neutral script pass-to-rush attempt ratio has been Indianapolis for much of the year, but that's changed since they've found a running game. The top team is now the Falcons, who have thrown almost twice as much as they've run the ball when games are within six points. That's not much of a surprise, but the team in second kind of is: it's the Giants. New York has the highest overall pass-to-rush attempt ratio in football, but even when games are close, they've been really pass-heavy. Good thing they spent their second-overall pick on a running back.

No team has thrown fewer passes this year than the Seahawks, but only five quarterbacks have more touchdown passes than Russell Wilson. He's got a touchdown rate of 8.8%, when his career average is 5.9%. So if Wilson's going to keep this up, the Seahawks are either going to have to throw more, or he's going to have to break math.

The Jacksonville offense has been one of the worst in football this year, and that's led to few opportunities close to the goal line. On the season, the Jets and Dolphins are the only teams with fewer goal-line plays run, and that's something to monitor if and when Leonard Fournette returns from injury.

Kirk Cousins is pacing towards 680 pass attempts this year, which would mark a career high for him. And, honestly, it's surprising that we haven't seen more three-plus touchdown games from the Vikings' passer this year. He has two of them, but Minnesota's been the most pass-friendly team in the red zone in 2018, and they rank fifth-highest in pass-to-rush ratio at the goal line. I'm hopeful for a strong second half from Cousins.

Schedule-Adjusted Net Expected Points

To learn more about numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, check out the glossary. (Note: Negative figures for defense are good.)

Team Adj NEP Adj Pass NEP Adj Rush NEP Adj D NEP Adj D Pass NEP Adj D Rush NEP
ARI -54.83 -33.84 -17.78 23.26 25.82 5.40
ATL 74.77 75.59 -7.73 95.01 73.67 22.32
BAL 63.71 47.67 7.16 0.10 14.03 -7.51
BUF -82.79 -73.02 -1.86 8.39 16.67 -5.67
CAR 72.00 50.28 20.76 43.63 29.68 20.21
CHI 76.28 41.71 25.52 17.16 32.51 -15.05
CIN 52.16 50.63 -5.66 42.27 23.08 23.31
CLE -40.95 -53.73 8.73 -22.01 -29.99 12.08
DAL 15.83 1.34 22.99 10.51 24.89 -16.47
DEN 50.75 33.51 21.06 17.98 3.77 19.88
DET 62.02 51.10 12.99 102.13 68.72 27.96
GB 53.58 34.58 23.41 45.41 39.83 10.83
HOU 54.94 49.28 2.77 48.97 58.44 -20.18
IND 64.78 52.89 13.28 51.15 37.04 12.22
JAX -13.90 2.53 1.19 20.89 14.49 2.63
KC 153.73 133.44 19.48 81.07 34.22 38.00
LAC 146.36 102.50 39.62 33.93 22.54 18.07
LAR 90.98 87.36 10.40 51.80 51.03 8.55
MIA 18.00 17.70 2.88 85.12 61.12 12.53
MIN 36.17 54.15 -11.61 19.81 27.87 -11.67
NE 86.10 70.19 11.81 23.98 28.07 2.11
NO 104.44 81.80 16.58 72.93 64.31 -4.07
NYG 18.34 20.39 3.88 54.66 48.90 6.86
NYJ -19.85 -7.53 -6.09 15.23 23.44 -0.66
OAK 29.70 37.13 -4.07 94.21 74.90 30.92
PHI 45.12 27.75 11.62 29.89 16.57 9.34
PIT 62.68 65.74 4.69 24.01 20.05 4.30
SEA 47.22 43.33 2.77 13.28 8.67 -11.35
SF -6.49 -7.88 -6.19 62.62 43.72 7.49
TB 64.49 69.16 2.32 77.40 86.36 -2.76
TEN -6.03 -0.12 -0.92 47.36 44.84 9.77
WAS 26.34 14.53 5.62 25.83 21.97 7.28


The teams listed at the bottom of the pass defense rankings continue to be the same: Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Atlanta. Cleveland still comes in at the top of the schedule-adjusted pass defense list thanks to their ability to create turnovers, but one riser of late is Denver, who now ranks second-best against the pass. A lot of that has to do with their ridiculous performance against Josh Rosen, but they do have an interception in each of their last four games, including one this past weekend against Patrick Mahomes. Essentially, they're not a cakewalk matchup.

Kansas City owns the worst rush defense in the league. We're seeing that translate to fantasy football, but it's nice when fantasy points allowed and an expected points model match up so cleanly. Start your running backs against the Chiefs.

There's a pretty big separation between the bottom three offenses in the league versus the rest. Buffalo has an Adjusted NEP total of -82.79, when the league average is 42.05. To put that another way, if you were to give the Bills a league average offense, we'd see a 125-point swing in their favor across the season. That's between 15 and 16 points per game.

The other two bottom-of-the-barrel offenses belong to the Jets and Browns. Both are weekly targets for defensive streaming: New York gets Miami this week, while Cleveland faces Kansas City.

Team Directional Passing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

Deshaun Watson threw 20 passes for a modest 239 yards last Thursday, but he was able to hit a receiver for a score on 5 of those tosses. You guys know that a 25% touchdown rate isn't sustainable. As I mentioned above, Denver's secondary -- Watson's opponent this week -- has gotten stronger over the past few weeks within numberFire's expected points model. Their most impressive performance was probably against Jared Goff, holding him to just 201 yards passing, zero scores, and a pick.

Watson has combined for 29 rushing yards over his last three games when he averaged over 40 rushing yards per contest across his first five this year. Prior to last week, that really was hurting his fantasy production. But we also know his fantasy production was a little flukey in Week 8. And that's what makes this matchup scary: he's running it less, the passing yard totals haven't really been there of late, and the matchup isn't the easiest one in the world. That, and without Will Fuller (small sample alert), Watson's averaged almost three fewer yards per attempt than with Fuller.

Quarterback isn't strong this week outside of the top guys, but there are plenty of reasons to think Watson's not some slam dunk play.

I can't say the same about Drew Brees. Plenty of fantasy managers are concerned about the Saints' lack of passing since Mark Ingram returned to the lineup, but it has everything to do with game script and situation. In Week 5, New Orleans took the lead and never looked back against Washington, and Brees threw it just 29 times. In Week 7, he tossed it 30 times against a great Baltimore secondary. And then, this past week, the Saints got ahead of the Vikings, and Brees had just 23 attempts.

I'd be shocked if he's under the 30 attempt mark in Week 9. The game against Los Angeles is in New Orleans, and the over/under is 60 points. The Rams have faced the 10th-highest pass-to-rush ratio in football this year, and in contests where the game ended with a single-digit point margin this year, Brees has averaged almost 40 pass attempts per game. This game has a 1.5-point spread. And as you can see from the chart, he should be able to take advantage of the matchup. The Rams are above average in yards per attempt allowed, but they rank eighth-worst against the pass according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

In his three games since returning from injury, Greg Olsen has seen 16 targets, accounting for about 15% of Carolina's targets. As you can see in the chart, they're facing a Tampa Bay secondary that's been beat everywhere this year, but they've specifically not been great in the middle of the field and against tight ends. C.J. Uzomah posted a goose egg against them last week, but prior to that outing, the Bucs had allowed a top-six tight end performance in five straight games. Olsen should have a good outing this week.

John Brown was a buy in this week's 15 Transactions column, and on paper, the matchup is right this week against Pittsburgh. He was able to work the Steelers on the deep ball the last time these two teams faced one another, but since that game, Pittsburgh's been pretty good at limiting deep-ball plays. From Weeks 1 through 4, they were surrendering four 15-plus air yard completions per game, on average. Over their last three contests, that number's been cut in half. Brown's a fine play, but there's some worry about the Steelers' defensive improvements.

Team Directional Rushing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

Like I said earlier, the Chiefs have been horrendous against the run this year. They're actually allowing more than seven yards per rush to the outside, whether it be to the left or right. In two games without Carlos Hyde, Nick Chubb has carried the ball 36 times (18 in each contest), while playing well over half of Cleveland's snaps. He's a really strong play this week, and don't sleep on Duke Johnson in a probable negative game script with a new offensive coordinator.

The Lions have allowed the third-highest Success Rate -- the percentage of positive expected point runs made by a back -- to opposing backfields this year, and even with Damon Harrison in Week 8, Chris Carson rushed for more than 100 yards against them. Minnesota gets them this week, and while the Vikings have struggled to run the ball this year, Latavius Murray has seen 11-plus carries in four straight contests. That type of volume against a bad rush D in what could be a positive script for the Vikes makes Murray a strong option in Week 9.

The Saints have allowed the lowest Success Rate to running backs this year. Not that you'd bench Todd Gurley against them this week, but keep an eye on how they perform in a tough matchup -- it'll be a good test to see how legitimate they are at stopping the run.

If you're thinking about streaming Derek Carr this week, one fear with the matchup is that San Francisco may be able to run all over Oakland, shortening the game and making it lower-scoring. The Raiders are one of the worst teams at stopping running backs, and they've surrendered below-average rushing marks to all areas of the field, per the chart. Carr is fine if you're in a pinch, but he's still more of a middle-of-the-road to lower-end QB2 this week.

Running Back Usage

Player Att Rush % Targets Target % Snap % Last Wk Rate RZ Att RZ Targets GL Att
Todd Gurley 169 66.80% 42 16.47% 83.3% 89.7% 47 13 17
Saquon Barkley 111 74.50% 71 22.47% 84.2% 97.1% 16 9 7
Alvin Kamara 92 47.18% 61 24.80% 71.9% 71.7% 28 18 8
James Conner 127 78.40% 41 13.80% 84.6% 78.9% 21 3 12
James White 48 21.15% 74 25.08% 57.2% 80.3% 9 12 2
Kareem Hunt 134 67.00% 27 9.47% 67.3% 84.5% 20 8 9
Melvin Gordon 91 51.12% 42 19.00% 70.5% N/A 15 10 2
T.J. Yeldon 81 45.25% 53 16.56% 69.1% 57.8% 11 5 2
Christian McCaffrey 92 48.42% 52 21.76% 96.3% 98.5% 12 5 2
Ezekiel Elliott 132 68.04% 36 17.48% 89.1% N/A 14 7 3
David Johnson 122 75.78% 34 13.65% 83.1% 80.3% 16 6 6
Tarik Cohen 43 20.87% 41 17.08% 45.4% 57.6% 5 8 0
Joe Mixon 105 62.13% 28 9.46% 61.2% 84.6% 16 4 5
Adrian Peterson 127 60.48% 13 5.70% 47.4% 60.3% 21 2 7
Phillip Lindsay 93 46.27% 23 7.96% 39.4% 56.2% 15 3 5
Kenyan Drake 70 37.04% 41 16.53% 61.8% 56.1% 7 4 1
Isaiah Crowell 94 42.53% 14 5.60% 43.1% 46.3% 15 0 2
Nyheim Hines 52 25.87% 42 12.24% 50.5% 35.9% 11 5 1
Latavius Murray 82 47.13% 21 6.16% 60.6% 83.6% 9 2 1
Alex Collins 98 45.58% 20 5.67% 43% 48.5% 14 5 5
Kerryon Johnson 77 47.53% 26 10.04% 47.8% 81.4% 9 3 1
Austin Ekeler 53 29.78% 24 10.86% 40.5% N/A 10 4 2
Javorius Allen 38 17.67% 38 10.76% 45.1% 33.8% 11 5 6
Lamar Miller 113 46.89% 18 6.87% 58.1% 55.7% 19 1 6
Matt Breida 84 37.84% 13 5.04% 37.1% 47% 14 3 3
Tevin Coleman 82 52.23% 18 6.67% 57.3% N/A 7 4 2
Dion Lewis 73 38.02% 33 16.75% 63% N/A 9 1 2
Marshawn Lynch 90 55.56% 20 7.66% 50.4% N/A 15 5 3
Carlos Hyde 120 67.04% 12 3.75% 50.4% 43.8% 17 2 10
Marlon Mack 66 32.84% 11 3.21% 46.7% 62.8% 16 1 6
Jordan Howard 112 54.37% 15 6.25% 60.7% 57.6% 17 3 6
Jalen Richard 13 8.02% 45 17.24% 36.5% 44% 1 4 1
Wendell Smallwood 60 28.85% 22 7.14% 40.2% 50% 10 5 1
Chris Carson 103 46.40% 11 6.04% 52.2% 66.7% 12 2 4
Sony Michel 95 41.85% 8 2.71% 29.4% N/A 21 0 7
Chris Thompson 26 12.38% 34 14.91% 43.2% 38.2% 3 4 2
LeSean McCoy 75 35.89% 29 11.98% 55.9% 71.9% 7 0 0
Royce Freeman 71 35.32% 6 2.08% 30% N/A 10 0 3
Bilal Powell 80 36.20% 18 7.20% 41.3% N/A 10 1 1
Frank Gore 84 44.44% 8 3.23% 40.3% 43.9% 8 1 1
Peyton Barber 93 54.71% 12 4.11% 54.5% 48.9% 11 3 4
Giovani Bernard 34 20.12% 21 7.09% 46.1% N/A 6 1 2
Duke Johnson 22 9.91% 29 9.45% 43% 35.9% 2 2 0
Mike Davis 52 23.42% 12 6.59% 34% 31.7% 9 0 2
Corey Clement 50 24.04% 16 5.19% 31.5% 21% 13 1 1
Chris Ivory 73 34.93% 15 6.20% 36.3% 29.7% 4 0 1
Nick Chubb 52 23.42% 6 1.95% 18.3% 48.4% 6 0 3
Alfred Blue 79 32.78% 15 5.73% 43.3% 47.5% 9 2 3
Ito Smith 39 24.84% 13 4.81% 27.2% N/A 14 2 3
Aaron Jones 44 29.14% 8 2.74% 34.1% 61.5% 5 0 2
Kyle Juszczyk 4 1.80% 27 10.47% 64.1% 71.2% 2 5 1
Devontae Booker 22 10.95% 25 8.65% 31.1% 43.8% 1 2 0
Ty Montgomery 26 17.22% 23 7.88% 30.9% 11.5% 3 1 1
Jamaal Williams 63 41.72% 17 5.82% 44.2% 25% 6 2 1
Alfred Morris 77 34.68% 11 4.26% 33.1% 16.7% 13 0 7
Derrick Henry 84 43.75% 8 4.06% 37.9% N/A 12 1 3
Jay Ajayi 45 21.63% 6 1.95% 42% N/A 11 2 4
LeGarrette Blount 60 37.04% 4 1.54% 25.2% 11.9% 11 0 4
Theo Riddick 8 4.94% 30 11.58% 33.8% N/A 2 5 0
Mark Ingram 41 21.03% 8 3.25% 49.5% 43.4% 5 0 4


In their first game without Marshawn Lynch, the Raiders split up their backfield in a pretty predictable way. Doug Martin saw early-down work, while Jalen Richard was the team's primary pass-catcher. Richard is now pacing to catch 89 passes this year, and he's the preferred option in PPR formats with Oakland likely to trail in games.

In Week 7, Kerryon Johnson played 59.4% of Detroit's snaps with Theo Riddick sidelined. That was in a positive game script, though. This past week, the Lions trailed the Seahawks, and Johnson was on the field for 81.4% of the team's snaps. His fantasy day was saved thanks to his 12 targets, but there's reason to be cautious about the rest of his 2018 with Theo Riddick eventually returning. Or, if we assume Riddick returns.

No Royce Freeman in Week 8 meant the Denver backfield would be split into halves instead of thirds. Devontae Booker ended up seeing a bump to a 43.8% snap share (his season average is 31.1%), but the real winner was Phillip Lindsay, who played over 56% of Denver's snaps. It was just the second time a Denver back hit the 50% mark this season, but it was the second consecutive week where Lindsay did it. Keep plugging him in as an RB2 in PPR formats.

Aaron Jones finally got a decent shot in Week 8, and he delivered, running the ball 12 times for 86 yards and a score. His 61.5% snap share almost matched the season high for a Packers' back, which was 61.7% by Jamaal Williams back in Week 1. Keep in mind, Jones was suspended for that game. It's a great sign for his rest-of-season potential. You should consider him an upside RB2, especially with Ty Montgomery headed to Baltimore.

Over the last two weeks, Alvin Kamara has handled about 44% of New Orleans' rushes. Through Week 4 -- so, without Mark Ingram -- that number was about 59%. This drop was to be expected and, really, Kamara's 44% share is still about 13% to 14% higher than what he saw last year without Adrian Peterson in the backfield. And his 19% target share in Weeks 7 and 8 is right where we saw it a season ago, too. So, overall, he's being used more than last year, and he's an RB1 as a result.

Wide Receiver Usage

Player Targets Target % Snap % Last Wk Rate RZ Targets < 10 Targets GL Targets
Adam Thielen 98 28.74% 96.8% 94.5% 13 4 3
DeAndre Hopkins 78 29.77% 99.5% 96.7% 14 12 7
Tyreek Hill 65 22.81% 86% 82.8% 9 5 3
Davante Adams 78 26.71% 93% 76.9% 15 4 1
Odell Beckham 91 28.80% 95.6% 95.7% 13 5 4
Emmanuel Sanders 65 22.49% 85.3% 80.8% 6 3 1
Antonio Brown 80 26.94% 94.4% 98.6% 10 4 1
A.J. Green 76 25.68% 86% 93.8% 14 6 5
Stefon Diggs 86 25.22% 86.8% 87.7% 8 4 3
Mike Evans 68 23.29% 82.7% 79.5% 8 3 1
Michael Thomas 64 26.02% 91.3% 96.2% 14 9 5
Tyler Boyd 66 22.30% 85.4% 92.3% 8 2 1
Robert Woods 65 25.49% 96% 97.4% 5 4 3
Julio Jones 81 30.00% 77.1% N/A 3 2 1
Juju Smith-Schuster 69 23.23% 82% 78.9% 17 5 4
Golden Tate 69 26.64% 79.8% 91.5% 7 5 2
DeSean Jackson 43 14.73% 50.8% 52.3% 4 1 0
Jarvis Landry 94 30.62% 92.4% 81.2% 15 5 3
Brandin Cooks 52 20.39% 87.9% 96.2% 9 3 1
John Brown 61 17.28% 67.2% 67.6% 8 3 1
Sterling Shepard 59 18.67% 94.4% 95.7% 13 4 3
Cooper Kupp 42 16.47% 67% N/A 11 7 0
Will Fuller 45 17.18% 77% 72.1% 5 3 2
Tyler Lockett 34 18.68% 86.5% 69.8% 4 3 0
Calvin Ridley 35 12.96% 53.9% N/A 5 1 0
Sammy Watkins 49 17.19% 78.5% 94.8% 10 4 0
Keenan Allen 56 25.34% 81.5% N/A 5 3 1
Albert Wilson 35 14.11% 48.2% N/A 1 0 0
Kenny Golladay 44 16.99% 88.3% 91.5% 5 5 2
Marvin Jones 47 18.15% 92.8% 96.6% 10 6 1
Demaryius Thomas 56 19.38% 74.6% 71.2% 8 3 3
Michael Crabtree 69 19.55% 70.6% 66.2% 6 3 1
Dede Westbrook 48 15.00% 73.6% 90.6% 4 1 0
Devin Funchess 50 20.92% 84.6% 73.8% 8 4 2
Tyrell Williams 27 12.22% 77.8% N/A 1 1 1
Nelson Agholor 61 19.81% 91.9% 91.9% 7 2 1
Taylor Gabriel 44 18.33% 77.7% 66.7% 5 4 3
Alshon Jeffery 44 14.29% 71.2% 87.1% 9 2 1
Chris Godwin 44 15.07% 60.6% 71.6% 9 8 3
T.Y. Hilton 47 13.70% 77.1% 82.1% 11 9 7
Christian Kirk 44 17.67% 74.2% 75.8% 2 1 0
Willie Snead 61 17.28% 64.7% 76.5% 3 0 0
Larry Fitzgerald 55 22.09% 88.9% 100% 8 4 3
Cole Beasley 43 20.87% 63.8% N/A 6 2 0
Danny Amendola 44 17.74% 85.6% 98.5% 0 0 0
Donte Moncrief 56 17.50% 78.9% 87.5% 6 4 3
Jordy Nelson 35 13.41% 87.4% 90% 5 3 1
Mohamed Sanu 35 12.96% 73.7% N/A 3 1 1
Corey Davis 56 28.43% 86.3% N/A 9 6 3
Mike Williams 29 13.12% 64.9% N/A 6 3 0
Chester Rogers 47 13.70% 62.9% N/A 5 0 0
Kenny Stills 29 11.69% 77% N/A 2 2 1
Keelan Cole 49 15.31% 76.3% 23.4% 6 0 0
Chris Hogan 32 10.85% 79.3% 59.2% 2 1 0
Allen Robinson 43 17.92% 75.9% N/A 7 3 2
Julian Edelman 34 11.53% 88.9% 96.1% 8 4 2
Marquise Goodwin 23 8.91% 70.9% 92.4% 2 0 0
Geronimo Allison 30 10.27% 72.2% 57.7% 3 1 0
Robby Anderson 36 14.40% 63.5% N/A 0 0 0
Courtland Sutton 37 12.80% 69.2% 67.1% 4 2 1


There were some trades that went down at wide receiver on Tuesday, shaking up the fantasy football world. One of the deal sent Demaryius Thomas to Houston, freeing up Courtland Sutton to see more work in the Broncos' offense. He'd been playing fewer than 70% of their snaps, but do know that, per Pro Football Focus, Sutton has actually run more routes this season than Thomas has. He's seen 19 fewer targets, so we're probably looking at a 2 to 3 target bump through the end of the season. That's not insignificant, but with Case Keenum under center, Sutton's still probably more of a high-end WR3 with (lots of) upside given his talent.

Golden Tate was also traded, but he went to the Eagles. We know Tate is one of the best slot receivers you can find, so this may hurt Nelson Agholor's fantasy value, as he's been much more productive since moving to the slot last season. He's played 61% of his snaps from that area of the field this year according to Pro Football Focus. But you can probably downgrade most Philly pass-catchers with another mouth to feed in that offense. Alshon Jeffery may be impacted the least given he plays on the outside, but Zach Ertz, who catches passes in Tate's area of the field, could see a dip in volume as a result of the deal. Tight end is a dumpster fire, so Ertz will still be valuable, but be aware that this trade could make him slightly less reliable.

One situation to monitor is Green Bay's wide receiver usage. Marquez Valdes-Scantling played the second-most snaps at the position for them in Week 8, and Randall Cobb was easily fourth among Packer wideouts in routes run. It could be a situation where the coaching staff was easing players in after being injured, but MVS has been strong this year and deserves more run.

I mentioned this last week in this column, but Chris Godwin is playing more snaps for Tampa Bay. He almost hit the 72% mark on Sunday, marking a season high. He continues to be a player to watch down the stretch, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center -- Godwin scored a touchdown in Fitzpatrick's first three starts this season.

Tight End Usage

Player Targets Target % Snap % Last Wk Rate RZ Targets < 10 Targets GL Targets
Zach Ertz 84 27.27% 96.7% 91.9% 14 6 2
Travis Kelce 70 24.56% 94% 94.8% 12 5 2
Eric Ebron 62 18.08% 57.7% 21.8% 15 4 2
George Kittle 57 22.09% 85.1% 90.9% 9 5 3
Jared Cook 48 18.39% 82.1% 62% 11 9 3
Trey Burton 38 15.83% 80.8% 72.7% 7 5 2
O.J. Howard 34 11.64% 59.4% 60.2% 4 1 0
Austin Hooper 41 15.19% 82.5% N/A 6 4 1
Rob Gronkowski 43 14.58% 90.8% 89.5% 2 1 0
Kyle Rudolph 42 12.32% 85.7% 86.3% 8 5 3
David Njoku 52 16.94% 83.6% 84.4% 3 2 1
Jimmy Graham 49 16.78% 82.9% 88.5% 6 3 3
Jordan Reed 47 20.61% 63.6% 77.9% 3 2 1
Vance McDonald 28 9.43% 53.6% 38% 2 1 0
Dallas Goedert 21 6.82% 44.6% 48.4% 5 1 1
Jesse James 24 8.08% 60.4% 56.3% 3 1 1
Ben Watson 28 11.38% 58% 26.4% 6 4 2
Mark Andrews 26 7.37% 34.5% 32.4% 4 2 1
C.J. Uzomah 23 7.77% 75.9% 96.9% 3 3 2
Ricky Seals-Jones 39 15.66% 72.2% 72.7% 2 2 1
Christopher Herndon 18 7.20% 38.5% 50% 4 0 0
Geoff Swaim 24 11.65% 89.5% N/A 2 2 2
Evan Engram 26 8.23% 74.9% 88.6% 4 1 1
Tyler Eifert 19 6.42% 49.1% N/A 2 0 0
Cameron Brate 17 5.82% 37.8% 29.5% 4 1 1
Greg Olsen 18 7.53% 61.9% 96.9% 2 1 1
Jeff Heuerman 29 10.03% 76.8% 86.3% 12 8 3
Jack Doyle 22 6.41% 87.3% 73.1% 4 1 0
Charles Clay 31 12.81% 68.1% 64.1% 2 1 1


With Jack Doyle back from injury this past week, Eric Ebron's snap share dropped significantly. As you can see, his season-long share is up in the 58% range, but in Week 8, it was 21.8%. There were actually three tight ends on the Colts who played more snaps than Ebron on Sunday. So things are looking up for Doyle, but not so much for Ebron.

An interesting tight end name to watch with the Demaryius Thomas trade is Jeff Heuerman. He only has a 10% target share this year, but he's seen 12 red-zone targets and 8 looks from within the 10. The aforementioned Sutton is easily the biggest winner in that deal, but Heuerman may become a streamer in more than just good matchups.

Chris Herndon has scored three times in three weeks, but he's been a little lucky. Over these three games, he ranks 32nd in routes run at the tight end position with just 36. Now, he did see a bump up to 17 routes run this past week, but that's still not a great number to rely on in fantasy football. He's a decent enough streamer in Week 9 because of the lack of options, but we'll keep track of the number of routes he's running to see if he can become a more predictable asset.

Deep Ball Passing

Player 15+ Yd Att 15+ Yd Att % 15+ Comp % 15+ % of Tot Yds 15+ Yd TD %
Andrew Luck 52 15.20% 46.15% 26.70% 21.74%
Joe Flacco 65 19.01% 33.85% 25.81% 16.67%
Kirk Cousins 44 12.90% 50.00% 24.91% 50.00%
Eli Manning 55 17.46% 45.45% 29.95% 25.00%
Ben Roethlisberger 50 16.84% 36.00% 23.54% 42.86%
Tom Brady 55 18.64% 40.00% 26.95% 25.00%
Andy Dalton 47 16.10% 48.94% 29.16% 29.41%
Blake Bortles 47 16.21% 38.30% 24.54% 30.00%
Case Keenum 54 18.75% 46.30% 37.49% 40.00%
Patrick Mahomes 62 21.75% 46.77% 35.67% 26.92%
Aaron Rodgers 56 19.72% 48.21% 39.73% 30.77%
Matt Ryan 53 20.15% 47.17% 32.76% 33.33%
Deshaun Watson 50 19.16% 46.00% 30.38% 26.67%
Derek Carr 32 12.26% 50.00% 23.48% 30.00%
Jared Goff 50 19.76% 58.00% 34.60% 35.29%
Matthew Stafford 37 14.62% 48.65% 28.61% 28.57%
Sam Darnold 48 19.20% 41.67% 33.49% 45.45%
Drew Brees 32 13.17% 65.63% 29.35% 21.43%
Mitch Trubisky 54 22.50% 37.04% 35.45% 20.00%
Cam Newton 42 17.65% 38.10% 22.90% 23.08%
Alex Smith 38 16.67% 39.47% 27.35% 25.00%
Carson Wentz 37 16.44% 48.65% 31.32% 23.08%
Baker Mayfield 49 21.97% 42.86% 36.64% 37.50%
Philip Rivers 43 19.55% 53.49% 34.96% 47.06%
Dak Prescott 32 15.53% 43.75% 31.05% 25.00%
Russell Wilson 36 19.78% 50.00% 35.35% 56.25%
C.J. Beathard 23 13.61% 43.48% 25.24% 37.50%
Josh Rosen 35 20.71% 42.86% 38.99% 40.00%
Marcus Mariota 25 16.67% 40.00% 24.37% 0.00%
Jameis Winston 34 22.97% 41.18% 28.03% 33.33%
Ryan Fitzpatrick 40 27.78% 57.50% 50.84% 46.15%
Josh Allen 35 25.18% 22.86% 29.33% 50.00%
Ryan Tannehill 22 17.05% 27.27% 21.40% 50.00%
Brock Osweiler 21 17.95% 33.33% 20.67% 16.67%


Derek Carr and the Raiders have continued their conservative approach, tossing it 15-plus air yards on 12.3% of his throws. The thing is, Carr's still completing half of his deep-ball attempts, which is a top-five number in the league. But the lack of depth to his throws is going to keep hurting Oakland pass-catchers.

The player with the top completion rate on deep throws is Drew Brees, but like Carr, he's been cautious to throw it long as well. His 13.2% deep-ball rate is the lowest we've seen from him in recent history. Over the last seven years, his average rate has been 17.0%.

There should be some regression coming for Ryan Fitzpatrick and his deep-ball success, but his high rate of throwing it 15-plus air yards is what makes him so much fun in fantasy football. Jameis Winston, too, if we're being honest. The two of them have actually combined for the second-best points per game average at quarterback in fantasy behind only Patrick Mahomes this year.

Running Back Touchdown Regression

Regression analysis doesn't always have to be so complicated. As you'd expect, there's a decent correlation between yards gained and touchdowns scored. The regression analysis in The Report looks at running back and wide receiver yards gained, shows how many touchdowns they've scored, and then finds how many touchdowns they should have scored based on trends from the last seven NFL seasons.

Player Rush Yds TD Should Have Difference Rec Yds TD Should Have Difference Total Difference
Todd Gurley 800 11 5.35 5.65 351 4 1.54 2.46 8.11
Kareem Hunt 592 5 3.96 1.04 262 5 1.15 3.85 4.89
Melvin Gordon 466 6 3.12 2.88 279 3 1.22 1.78 4.66
James White 204 2 1.37 0.63 459 6 2.01 3.99 4.63
Alvin Kamara 408 7 2.73 4.27 393 2 1.72 0.28 4.55
James Conner 599 9 4.01 4.99 323 0 1.41 -1.41 3.58
Javorius Allen 100 3 0.67 2.33 188 2 0.82 1.18 3.51
Alex Collins 358 5 2.40 2.60 101 1 0.44 0.56 3.16
David Johnson 394 5 2.64 2.36 207 1 0.91 0.09 2.46
Carlos Hyde 393 5 2.63 2.37 29 0 0.13 -0.13 2.24
Kenyan Drake 340 3 2.28 0.72 197 2 0.86 1.14 1.86
Royce Freeman 309 4 2.07 1.93 21 0 0.09 -0.09 1.84
Ito Smith 118 3 0.79 2.21 95 0 0.42 -0.42 1.79
LeGarrette Blount 170 3 1.14 1.86 37 0 0.16 -0.16 1.70
Dalvin Cook 98 0 0.66 -0.66 107 0 0.47 -0.47 -1.12
Alfred Blue 258 1 1.73 -0.73 94 0 0.41 -0.41 -1.14
Christian McCaffrey 423 1 2.83 -1.83 300 2 1.31 0.69 -1.14
Alfred Morris 281 1 1.88 -0.88 66 0 0.29 -0.29 -1.17
Rashaad Penny 135 0 0.90 -0.90 62 0 0.27 -0.27 -1.17
Doug Martin 171 0 1.14 -1.14 22 0 0.10 -0.10 -1.24
Chris Ivory 244 1 1.63 -0.63 140 0 0.61 -0.61 -1.25
Raheem Mostert 175 0 1.17 -1.17 25 0 0.11 -0.11 -1.28
Malcolm Brown 189 0 1.26 -1.26 24 0 0.10 -0.10 -1.37
Chris Carson 457 2 3.06 -1.06 80 0 0.35 -0.35 -1.41
Devontae Booker 129 0 0.86 -0.86 149 0 0.65 -0.65 -1.52
Duke Johnson 107 0 0.72 -0.72 203 0 0.89 -0.89 -1.60
Jalen Richard 46 0 0.31 -0.31 303 0 1.33 -1.33 -1.63
Dion Lewis 277 1 1.85 -0.85 199 0 0.87 -0.87 -1.72
Jordan Wilkins 235 0 1.57 -1.57 42 0 0.18 -0.18 -1.76
Bilal Powell 343 0 2.30 -2.30 110 1 0.48 0.52 -1.78
Frank Gore 385 0 2.58 -2.58 62 1 0.27 0.73 -1.85
LeSean McCoy 257 0 1.72 -1.72 167 0 0.73 -0.73 -2.45
Kerryon Johnson 466 1 3.12 -2.12 158 0 0.69 -0.69 -2.81


Kerryon Johnson isn't finding the end zone, and it's partially due to LeGarrette Blount's usage at the goal line. In most cases, a player with his yardage-to-touchdown profile would be a buy in fantasy football. But with Blount stealing important work and Theo Riddick possibly returning soon, Johnson, who's insanely talented, is more of a hold.

Wide Receiver Touchdown Regression

Player Rec Yds TD Should Have Difference
Antonio Brown 552 8 3.31 4.69
Calvin Ridley 392 6 2.35 3.65
Tyler Lockett 394 6 2.36 3.64
Tyreek Hill 705 7 4.23 2.77
Marvin Jones 387 5 2.32 2.68
David Moore 221 4 1.33 2.67
Marquise Goodwin 259 4 1.55 2.45
Aldrick Robinson 95 3 0.57 2.43
Cooper Kupp 438 5 2.63 2.37
Kenny Stills 281 4 1.69 2.31
Mike Williams 308 4 1.85 2.15
Anthony Miller 161 3 0.97 2.03
Chris Godwin 340 4 2.04 1.96
Alshon Jeffery 341 4 2.04 1.96
T.Y. Hilton 353 4 2.12 1.88
AJ Green 687 6 4.12 1.88
Davante Adams 690 6 4.14 1.86
Albert Wilson 391 4 2.34 1.66
Jaron Brown 73 2 0.44 1.56
John Ross 79 2 0.47 1.53
Tyrell Williams 428 4 2.57 1.43
Josh Reynolds 98 2 0.59 1.41
Robert Woods 672 3 4.03 -1.03
Devante Parker 174 0 1.04 -1.04
Jarvis Landry 528 2 3.17 -1.17
Jermaine Kearse 195 0 1.17 -1.17
Nelson Agholor 372 1 2.23 -1.23
Keelan Cole 375 1 2.25 -1.25
Sterling Shepard 542 2 3.25 -1.25
Martavis Bryant 220 0 1.32 -1.32
Willie Snead 390 1 2.34 -1.34
Corey Davis 395 1 2.37 -1.37
Pierre Garcon 230 0 1.38 -1.38
Juju Smith-Schuster 594 2 3.56 -1.56
Adam Humphries 296 0 1.78 -1.78
Brandin Cooks 643 2 3.86 -1.86
Keenan Allen 506 1 3.03 -2.03
Odell Beckham Jr 785 2 4.71 -2.71
Julio Jones 812 0 4.87 -4.87


You could continue to consider all four of the players at the bottom of the wide receiver touchdown regression list as buys. Especially Keenan Allen and Julio Jones, who are really frustrating fantasy managers with their lack of touchdowns.