The Best and Worst Bets to Make the NFL Playoffs Based on numberFire's Projections
Predicting the playoff teams before the season starts is about as easy as comprehending the lyrics to Pearl Jam's Yellow Ledbetter. Sure, you can mumble the lyrics through the chorus like I do, but you aren't choosing the right words.
It's similar to picking the right NFL teams. Sure, the Patriots will probably clinch the playoffs for the millionth year in a row. The Bills will probably start a new streak of missing the playoffs. Some things can be assumed, but is it worth betting?
With the parity in the NFL, figuring out which team will win or lose over the season is tough. Betting sites like Betfair give odds for each team to make the playoffs. Are there any teams that stand out as values?
The Data
First, I took all of the odds from Betfair and put them into a table. I converted the decimal odds to American odds to get a moneyline value. I then used a probability calculator to get a probability for each bet.
| Team | BetFair Postseason Odds | Probability Conversion |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | -2000 | 95.24% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -450 | 81.82% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -333 | 76.91% |
| Minnesota Vikings | -250 | 71.43% |
| Los Angeles Rams | -227 | 69.42% |
| Green Bay Packers | -200 | 66.67% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -164 | 62.12% |
| Atlanta Falcons | -152 | 60.32% |
| New Orleans Saints | -150 | 60.00% |
| Dallas Cowboys | -139 | 58.16% |
| Carolina Panthers | -139 | 58.16% |
| Houston Texans | -139 | 58.16% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -139 | 58.16% |
| San Francisco 49ers | -120 | 54.55% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +100 | 50.00% |
| Oakland Raiders | +175 | 36.36% |
| Denver Broncos | +175 | 36.36% |
| Tennessee Titans | +175 | 36.36% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +175 | 36.36% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +175 | 36.36% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +275 | 26.67% |
| Detroit Lions | +275 | 26.67% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +500 | 16.67% |
| New York Giants | +500 | 16.67% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +500 | 16.67% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +650 | 13.33% |
| Chicago Bears | +650 | 13.33% |
| Washington Redskins | +650 | 13.33% |
| Cleveland Browns | +850 | 10.53% |
| New York Jets | +850 | 10.53% |
| Buffalo Bills | +900 | 10.00% |
| Miami Dolphins | +900 | 10.00% |
The Patriots are the heaviest favorites to make the playoffs. Two of their three divisional opponents -- the Dolphins and Bills -- have the worst odds to make the playoffs. The Patriots have made the playoffs 14 of the past 15 seasons.
So you think the Patriots will make the playoffs? Sure, we all do. But is there really value betting on a -2000 moneyline? The risk is far too great to bet $2,000 just to win $100 in return.
numberFire's Projections
I decided to compare these odds to our playoff projections here at numberFire to look for some possible values.
| Team | BetFair Odds | Probability Conversion | numberFire Projections | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | -139 | 58.16% | 29.80% | -28.36% |
| Atlanta Falcons | -152 | 60.32% | 34.60% | -25.72% |
| Green Bay Packers | -200 | 66.67% | 42.50% | -24.17% |
| San Francisco 49ers | -120 | 54.55% | 32.40% | -22.15% |
| Los Angeles Rams | -227 | 69.42% | 50.50% | -18.92% |
| Carolina Panthers | -139 | 58.16% | 40.20% | -17.96% |
| New England Patriots | -2000 | 95.24% | 77.80% | -17.44% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +100 | 50.00% | 33.80% | -16.20% |
| Indianapolis Colts | +275 | 26.67% | 12.10% | -14.57% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -450 | 81.82% | 67.60% | -14.22% |
| Oakland Raiders | +175 | 36.36% | 26.00% | -10.36% |
| Houston Texans | -139 | 58.16% | 48.30% | -9.86% |
| Denver Broncos | +175 | 36.36% | 26.60% | -9.76% |
| Tennessee Titans | +175 | 36.36% | 26.70% | -9.66% |
| Minnesota Vikings | -250 | 71.43% | 63.20% | -8.23% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -333 | 76.91% | 70.70% | -6.21% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +500 | 16.67% | 15.50% | -1.17% |
| Detroit Lions | +275 | 26.67% | 26.00% | -0.67% |
| New York Giants | +500 | 16.67% | 16.90% | 0.23% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +175 | 36.36% | 38.10% | 1.74% |
| New Orleans Saints | -150 | 60.00% | 62.90% | 2.90% |
| Cleveland Browns | +850 | 10.53% | 13.60% | 3.07% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -164 | 62.12% | 65.90% | 3.78% |
| Buffalo Bills | +900 | 10.00% | 15.70% | 5.70% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -139 | 58.16% | 64.10% | 5.94% |
| Miami Dolphins | +900 | 10.00% | 16.50% | 6.50% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +500 | 16.67% | 24.20% | 7.53% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +175 | 36.36% | 46.90% | 10.54% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +650 | 13.33% | 24.90% | 11.57% |
| Chicago Bears | +650 | 13.33% | 25.00% | 11.67% |
| Washington Redskins | +650 | 13.33% | 27.60% | 14.27% |
| New York Jets | +850 | 10.53% | 33.70% | 23.17% |
After running the data, there are some teams that stand out as possible bets as well as other squads that are worth avoiding.
Avoid the Noid
Sometimes, your best bet is no bet at all.
The Dallas Cowboys have a 58.16% chance of making the playoffs, per Betfair's odds, but we give them only a 29.8% chance. This is our largest discrepancy, making Dallas a bet to avoid.
Along those same lines, the Atlanta Falcons have a 60.32% chance to make the playoffs, per Betfair, but our numbers give them 34.6% chance. The Falcons have made the playoffs two seasons in a row, but our projections like the Saints the most in the NFC South.
Betfair has the Packers next on the list as a -200 favorite to make the playoffs. I am not one to bet against Aaron Rodgers, but our projections lean towards them being a bit of a trap bet.
The last team worth avoiding is the sexy San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco hasn't been this sexy since Uncle Jesse and the Rippers were playing at the Smash Club in the 90's.
Jimmy Garoppolo led the 1-10 49ers to 5 straight wins to close out the 2017 season. His play was very praiseworthy and has caused many people to pick the 49ers as a darkhorse Super Bowl pick. I think it's time to hold those horses just a tad because our projections don't like the Niners as much as the Betfair odds do. It's easy to draw some comparisons to the Rams of 2017 and say that the Niners are ready to make that leap, but our projections say otherwise.
Teams to Bet On
The largest discrepancy among value picks were the New York Jets. I know. I am surprised, too. While the Jets are supreme longshots to make the playoffs, our projections give them a 33.7% chance, mostly because of how poor the Dolphins and Bills, fellow AFC East foes, are expected to be. Still, two-thirds of the time, we expect them to miss the playoffs, but if you are looking for a team with a high moneyline, taking the Jets at +850 is worth a roll of the dice.
Our projections also like Washington to make the playoffs 27.6% of the time, compared to Betfair's odds of just 13.33%. This correlates with our projections dislike of their divisional rival, the Cowboys.
Looking further up our board, the Baltimore Ravens stand out as a value. John Harbaugh started his career with the Ravens by making five straight playoff appearances, including a Super Bowl win. The following five years have seen the Ravens make the playoffs just once. The Ravens knew that quarterback was a weakness and went out and drafted the exciting Lamar Jackson. How much he will factor in in Year 1 is to be determined, but if Joe Flacco continues to play poorly, Action Jackson will likely step in sooner than later.
Betting on sports is also a "what have you done for me lately" market. The Ravens haven't made the playoffs for three straight seasons, so their Betfair odds are just 36.36%. Our models like them a bit more at 46.9%
