Top 6 Fantasy Waiver Pickups for Week 11
- written by
on Nov 13th, 2012
It's Repeat Weekend here at the numberFire waiver pickups: three of these guys I recommended last week, and another (Shorts) I recommended a few weeks ago. But they weren't picked up in too many ESPN leagues, so I'm including them against to drive the point home, plus a few other guys owned in very few leagues that you should take a look at this week.
Top 6 Fantasy Football Waiver Pickups for Week 11
RB Marcel Reece - Oakland Raiders
Week 10 Fantasy Points: 9
Leagues Owned: 12.2%
Well that was boring. I want drama, I want intrigue! Giving Marcel Reece 13 carries while only giving Taiwan Jones two doesn't make my life tough as a fantasy owner in the least.
Yes, Marcel Reece is now the clear lead back in the Oakland system as long as Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson remain sidelined with high ankle sprains. Jeremy Stewart as a change of pace back remains intriguing, but seeing as how he was only recently activated from the practice squad, I don't expect the Raiders to give him a larger share of touches any time soon.
Reece, meanwhile, retained his high level of output in the passing game (a team-leading nine targets on Sunday) while gaining 48 yards on the ground as well. If he's not owned in at least half of ESPN leagues by Wednesday morning, it's a clear indication that a solid majority of people have given up on their respective fantasy seasons. Don't be that person: pick up this week's one clear waiver-wire running back today.
RB Chris Ivory - New Orleans Saints
Week 10 Fantasy Points: 14
Leagues Owned: 2.5%
Caution: Objects in the mirror may not be what they appear.
Especially after two straight double-digit fantasy point games, Chris Ivory seems like a must-pick up this week. And indeed, if you're in a league with attentive owners that already picked up Reece, he is indeed the next-best running back available. The Saints may begin to trust him more as well due to his big-play ability.
But big flashing neon caution lights remain. He only received eight touches this past week, less than Mark Ingram (16) and only two more than Pierre Thomas. In his only two games with actual stats, he has only averaged 67 total yards and has not topped 100 total yards yet this season. And despite the recent rushing increase from the Saints, they still have only rushed on 34.1% of their offensive plays so far this season. Ivory's upside is limited.
WR Danny Amendola - St. Louis Rams
Week 10 Fantasy Points: 10
Leagues Owned: 49.0%
I consider myself a moderately funny guy (most people would put an emphasis on the "moderately"), but when I wasn't joking when I put Danny Amendola as my #1 waiver pickup last week.
Didn't believe me? Then all you missed out on was a player with 11 catches (second in the NFL) on 12 targets (eight in the NFL) and 102 receiving yards (ninth in the NFL). And that was after being ruled questionable all the way up until kick off against numberFire's #4 opponent-adjusted defense.
If that's how he played in his return, I can only imagine his ceiling against the Jets' porous defense next week. Grab him if he's still magically available and don't look back.
WR Cecil Shorts - Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 10 Fantasy Points: 16
Leagues Owned: 15.7%
I place about as much trust in the Jaguars' passing game as I would in Dwight Howard's shooting ability in a D'Antoni offense, but if there's anyone to trust, it's the (re?)emergence of Cecil Shorts The ThirdTM as a legitimate fantasy threat.
Laurent Robinson's NFL-leading 15 targets this week are obviously pretty, as is the fact that 32.6% of Blaine Gabbert's throws went his way. But Cecil Shorts The Third also had double-digit targets (13) and scored the game's only touchdown.
So why do I trust Shorts more than Robinson? The easy answers are the probability of consistency and the availability of Shorts in most NFL leagues. Despite Robinson's high targets, he only saw the field on 57 of the Jaguars' 70 offensive snaps on Sunday. Both Shorts and Justin Blackmon, meanwhile, were on the field for all but one offensive play. With the Jaguars' depth chart still committed to Shorts and top-ten draft selection Blackmon as the starters, Robinson's upside is limited.
And if you wanted to pick up a Jaguars' receiver, chances are that Shorts will be easier to acquire in your league. He's currently owned in 10% less of ESPN leagues, and the fact that he only received 13 targets this week will allow him to stay under the radar one week further. With Houston (a likely "throw a lot from behind game") and weak Tennessee and Buffalo secondaries next up on the schedule, the demand for The Third will be higher in coming weeks.
WR Donald Jones - Buffalo Bills
Week 10 Fantasy Points: 5
Leagues Owned: 1.7%
Another player, another repeat. But with Donald Jones only owned in 1.7% of leagues, it bears repeating: the Bills' receiver isn't a bad fantasy option if you're in a bind.
On the season, the Bills have thrown the ball on 55.1% of their offensive plays; in the Bills' last three games, that number is 62.8%. Ryan Fitzpatrick is throwing the ball more than ever, and with a tough Miami run defense and weak Indianapolis and Jacksonville secondaries coming up, that proportion is unlikely to change.
With as much press as Steve Johnson has received in Buffalo, it may surprise you that Jones has been receiving just as much attention from Fitzpatrick as of late. With 10 targets on Sunday and nine Week 9 against the Texans, Jones has now led Buffalo two straight weeks in targets (Johnson had nine and seven those weeks, respectively). Perhaps even more impressively, he's been able to convert those targets in a way he couldn't seem to manage early on in the season; Jones has had six receptions in two straight weeks.
WR Danario Alexander - San Diego Chargers
Week 10 Fantasy Points: 19
Leagues Owned: 0.1%
OK, so this edition of the waiver pickups looks strangely similar to last week's edition. And if you listened to my listened to my suggestions last week, you probably need a new name. So here's one you might not have been expecting: new starting Chargers receiver Danario Alexander.
Norv Turner's not the only one with job troubles in San Diego; Robert Meachem and his 43.3% catch rate only saw one target this past week in his return from injury. Alexander, meanwhile, saw his role increased even further. He had 15% of Rivers' throws go his way in Week 9; he had 19% of Rivers' throws went his way in Week 10.
And he's been effective in his chances. He's now 80% on his catches in the past two weeks, and he's led the Chargers in receiving yards two straight weeks. Those 134 receiving yards were third in the NFL this past week as well.
Guys You Won't See:
Nick Foles: Only in 2 QB leagues.
Danny Woodhead: Two TDs is too much to ask for consistently.
Laurent Robinson: Only room for one Jacksonville receiver on these charts.
Who I would pick up this week, in order (with auction waiver $, assuming a $100 spending limit)
1. Amendola ($27)
2. Reece ($25)
3. Shorts ($15)
4. Ivory ($12)
5. Alexander ($10)
6. Jones ($9)