5 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 7
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's Chris Raybon, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- and his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being underowned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 7 on FanDuel's main slate, which excludes the Thursday and Monday games?
New England Patriots
Okay, so the point of this piece is to identify low-owned stacks, and starting with the most obvious game of the week (the Atlanta Falcons at the New England Patriots) isn't ideal, but the Pats have so many pass catchers that there's not one obvious stack to pair with Brady, who faces a pass defense that ranks 24th by our opponent-adjusted metrics.
It's Rob Gronkowski with the massive touchdown upside and Chris Hogan's 26.5% red zone market share who should draw the majority of ownership from Brady stackers. But it's Amendola in the slot against Brian Poole who should have the easiest matchup among the wide receivers, while Hogan and Brandin Cooks contend with Robert Alford and Desmond Trufant on the outside. In the Super Bowl, Amendola had 11 targets, 8 catches, 78 yards, and a touchdown against Atlanta.
I think that stacks on the other side of this game are in play, too, with Matt Ryan ($8,700), but rather than using Julio Jones ($8,800), Mohamed Sanu ($5,500) looks like more of a leverage play if you're in a huge tournament. It's generally been secondary options to torch the Patriots for maximum receiving value this season.
New Orleans Saints
This stack disappointed last week against the Detroit Lions despite 52 total points from the New Orleans Saints (not all from the offense, of course). Brees threw for just 186 yards, and Thomas had 11 yards on 6 targets. Woof. Now, Brees heads on the road (and his road splits are generally overblown), and Mark Ingram just looked unstoppable in Week 6. Exposure should thin out on Brees and Thomas in favor of Ingram and the Patriots/Falcons game.
However, the Green Bay Packers are 20th against the pass by our adjusted metrics, and Brees has averaged 18.25 FanDuel points so far, even with the 13.54-point showing last week. Brees' splits are more extreme in wins and losses than at home or on the road, and the Saints are favored by 5.5. That's a good sign for him to take advantage of the matchup.
Thomas is 10th in target market share among wide receivers playing in Week 7 and had averaged 13.9 FanDuel points per game entering last week. The Packers have allowed six games of at least 12-plus FanDuel points to opposing receivers, tied for fifth-most in the NFL.
This combo always has the threat of Ezekiel Elliott sapping upside, but it also plays into capping their ownership because Elliott is a popular running back option. The Dallas Cowboys head to California to face the San Francisco 49ers, who rank 26th against the pass but 13th against the rush by our metrics. That lends itself to more passing than rushing production, though the Cowboys are six-point favorites, so they could just lean on Elliott. But that worry should leave Dak and Dez underowned.
Prescott has averaged 22.46 FanDuel points per game and has secured at least 17 in every game. The 49ers are bottom five against fantasy quarterbacks, as well.
As for Bryant, he is fourth in target market share among receivers playing in Week 7 and third in red zone market share. He's also been the target on 13 of Prescott's 28 passes traveling at least 16 yards downfield, giving him the fifth-highest deep-target market share among all players. All of that came against arguably the toughest slate of matchups for any elite receiver to date. San Francisco is a breeze by comparison.
If you want to get even more contrarian, C.J. Beathard ($6,300) and George Kittle ($4,800) are a low-priced stack opposite the Cowboys in this game, which has a 46.5-point total, and Dallas ranks just 21st against the pass. Beathard, Bryant, and Kittle are an interesting game stack.
Mariota threw for more than 300 yards in his return from injury in Week 6 on Monday Night. He faces the Cleveland Browns in Week 7, our 31st-ranked pass defense. Mariota has at least 14.00 FanDuel points in all five games he's played. If you exclude a Week 2 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars (the NFL's best pass defense) and Week 6 while limited, he has at least 17.74 in his three other games. Assuming he's healthier than he was last week (he practiced in full on Thursday), he makes for a strong play against this pass defense of the Browns.
Walker gets the second-best matchup for fantasy tight ends imaginable. Cleveland has allowed 11.9 or more fantasy points to four different tight ends so far, and they gave up 8.7 to Ryan Griffin last week. Walker produced just 17 yards in Week 6 but had 8 targets. He's in one of the best spots to produce of any tight end this week.
Let's get weird. Taylor and the Buffalo Bills face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are 27th against the pass by our metrics, 30th against fantasy quarterbacks, and 32nd against fantasy receivers. Taylor has some tough matchups on his docket and has averaged just 14.10 FanDuel points per game, but there aren't many better remedies than this Buccaneers defense, which has given up 20.77 FanDuel points per game and 20-plus to Case Keenum, Eli Manning, and Carson Palmer.
Matthews returned to practice after thumb surgery but is far from full strength. If he plays, he'd get a matchup in the slot with Robert McClain, who is one of the best possible matchups for a slot option. It's a longshot, but at their prices, they don't need to have ceiling games necessarily. They do get you access to higher-upside options in other games and allow you to differentiate on what could be a really chalky slate overall.