How Does Matt Ryan's MVP Season Stack Up Against Recent Quarterback Winners?
When the dust settled, it seemed like the majority of NFL fans were cool with Matt Ryan winning this year's NFL MVP award. If you look at his raw statistics -- which many will look to when voting -- it's hard to argue. Our advanced numbers favored it, too.
There's no doubt, though, that this season saw a controversial MVP race. Ryan's numbers and play were off-the-charts good, but Tom Brady put in some serious work in his 12 regular season contests, and Aaron Rodgers made a strong case as well, carrying the Packers' offense into the playoffs.
Because of this, it may feel like Ryan's MVP wasn't as deserving as past quarterback winners.
Well, according to our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which you can read more about in our glossary, Ryan's MVP season certainly wasn't the greatest we've seen over the last decade and a half. It wasn't the worst, either.
What the table below shows us is the number of expected points an MVP quarterback -- there have been 13 of them since the turn of the century -- added in sum, how many points he added per drop back, the average per drop back rate for that particular season, and the difference between his rate and the average rate.
| Year | Player | Passing NEP | Per Drop Back | Avg. Per Drop Back | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | 231.10 | 0.45 | 0.03 | +0.43 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | 231.30 | 0.43 | 0.01 | +0.42 |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | 259.40 | 0.43 | 0.02 | +0.42 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | 278.52 | 0.41 | 0.07 | +0.34 |
| 2009 | Peyton Manning | 188.80 | 0.32 | 0.02 | +0.30 |
| 2003 | Steve McNair | 105.43 | 0.25 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 2001 | Kurt Warner | 145.17 | 0.25 | -0.02 | +0.26 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | 212.86 | 0.37 | 0.12 | +0.25 |
| 2003 | Peyton Manning | 139.85 | 0.24 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | 152.66 | 0.30 | 0.05 | +0.25 |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | 188.41 | 0.34 | 0.10 | +0.25 |
| 2002 | Rich Gannon | 133.12 | 0.20 | 0.02 | +0.19 |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | 105.04 | 0.20 | 0.11 | +0.09 |
As you can see, Ryan's efficiency numbers place him in the same tier as these other league MVPs, but his season was far from elite when adjusted for the year. So he was deserving, but he certainly didn't show us anything new.
(Oh, and for the record, these are all passing, not rushing, numbers -- that's why Cam Newton isn't getting the love he deserves for last year's campaign.)
