4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 17
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's TJ Hernandez, a quarterback's top receiver has a moderately strong correlation to the quarterback's performance -- and his tight end and second receiver aren't too far behind.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being under-owned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 17 on FanDuel's main slate?
Green Bay Packers
QB: Aaron Rodgers ($8,800)
WR: Jordy Nelson ($8,200)
In his career, Rodgers has played 41 games in domes. He owns a quarterback rating of 110.3 in those games with an adjusted yards per attempt mark of 9.27. Among all seasons with at least 300 attempts in NFL history, that'd rank him 15th in quarterback rating and 12th in adjusted yards per attempt. He's good. And after three games with an average of 28 attempts, Rodgers threw 38 times last week, more in line with the 44.4 attempts he averaged in the eight games prior to the low-volume stint.
The Green Bay Packers can clinch the NFC North with a Sunday Night win over the Detroit Lions, who rank 31st against the pass by our metrics and 21st since Week 9.
The obvious pairing here is Nelson, who has a 27.8% target market share in his past three games and 30.9% in his past five, which would rank second behind only Odell Beckham, who might be limited this week with his team locked into the 5 seed. Nelson is averaging 1.9 red zone targets per game this year and 1.6 in his past five games. The Packers have an implied total of 26.5 points. It's hard to talk yourself out of this one, especially with Darius Slay limited with a hamstring injury.
Atlanta Falcons
QB: Matt Ryan ($8,700)
WR: Mohamed Sanu ($5,100)
The key to this stack is obviously Ryan, who gets a juicy matchup against the New Orleans Saints, who rank 25th against the pass by our metrics from Week 9 on and 28th on the full season. The Atlanta Falcons have an implied total of 31.75 points in a game with an over/under of 56.5. Our algorithm sees Ryan tallying 22.8 FanDuel points this week, most of any player.
The issue is finding the right player to stack with him. Julio Jones is $8,300 and played just 62% of the team's snaps last week, but he did see 7 targets. With a lingering toe injury, he's hard to trust. Gadget player Taylor Gabriel has seen his snap rate drop from 78% to 35% and 44% in the past two weeks but still has a higher market share (18.6%) in that span than Sanu (11.2%).
Really, all Sanu has going for him is his snap rate: 92%, 89%, 85%, 68%, and 71% in his past five. He's mustered just a 13.1% target market share in those five, but if Jones is limited and Sanu keeps seeing a team-high snap rate, he should be able to pay off his price just because of the expected game flow in this one. His upside is capped, and you can really play Ryan by himself, but at just $5,100, Sanu won't kill you even if he has a mild game.
Washington
QB: Kirk Cousins ($7,900)
WR: DeSean Jackson ($7,000)
It's hard to figure out what the New York Giants are thinking. They are locked into the NFC's 5 seed but apparently are going to play their starters. That would hurt the potential for this stack, as the Giants have the best defense by our metrics since Week 9 and the third-best pass defense in that stretch, as well.
However, Washington is now a 7-point favorite with an implied total of 25.75 in a must-win game.
Cousins has been stellar this year, ranking fifth in per-play efficiency by our metrics among 34 passers with at least 200 drop backs. If the Giants roll out the backups, he's an elite play at a cheap price relative to other options this week.
Pierre Garcon ($5,600) actually has a higher target market share (19.3%) in his past five games than Jackson (18.1%), but he's topped 14.4 FanDuel points just once this year (but has posted at least 11.1 in six of his past seven).
Jackson has four games (in 14) with at least 14.5 FanDuel points, giving him a little more upside than Garcon but much more risk. The price difference could leave Garcon more popular, making Jackson more of the tournament stack and Garcon a safer cash-game pairing with Cousins. Just be on the lookout for the Giants' intentions come Sunday morning.
Jacksonville Jaguars
QB: Blake Bortles ($7,600)
WR: Allen Robinson ($6,100)
With everybody focusing in on the elite stacks such as Rodgers and Nelson and the Saints and Falcons passing offenses, other teams are likely going to go vastly overlooked. There's merit to looking into Doug Baldwin and Russell Wilson again, but this Jacksonville Jaguars pairing could be very sneaky.
In his career, Bortles has an adjusted yards per attempt mark of 6.00. In five games against the Indianapolis Colts, it's 7.01. He has 8 touchdowns and 3 picks against them, and 2 of his 5 career rushing touchdowns have come against them.
This game has, quietly, the third-highest over/under of the weekend at 47.5. The Jags still have an implied total of just 21.5, but it could turn into a shootout, and nobody is going to look to Bortles with so many elite options at quarterback and value at other positions.
Robinson is coming off his best game of the year with 9 catches on 12 targets for 147 yards. Interim head coach Doug Marrone thinks it was a result of moving Robinson around the formation. If Marrone is willing to do what it takes to get Robinson double-digit targets, he can pay off his modest price tag against a middle-of-the-road pass defense, especially if it turns into a shootout.
