4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 13
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's TJ Hernandez, a quarterback's top receiver has a moderately strong correlation to the quarterback's performance -- and his tight end and second receiver aren't too far behind.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being under-owned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 13 on FanDuel's main slate?
Atlanta Falcons
QB: Matt Ryan ($8,600)
WR: Julio Jones ($8,300)
Julio Jones is the cheapest he has been since 2014. That alone is exciting. He has posted 18.5 or more FanDuel points in four of his past six games, and according to our DFS tools, he leads all receivers in target market share in his past three (and past five) games. From Week 7 on, the Kansas City Chiefs rank 5th against the run, according to our Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play metric, but are just 22nd against the pass in that span.
Cornerback Marcus Peters doesn't shadow, and Jones moves around, so we shouldn't be too worried. The Atlanta Falcons have an implied team total of 26.5, fourth-highest for Week 13. Matt Ryan is third in Passing NEP and Passing NEP per drop back -- and fourth in Passing Success Rate (the percentage of drop backs that boost his team's expected point total). Jones will be popular, but this stack itself could go under-owned given the potential shootout in New Orleans, and we can take advantage.
New Orleans Saints
QB: Drew Brees ($9,300)
WR: Michael Thomas ($6,900)
Speaking of that game, the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions are playing in a matchup with an over/under of 53.5. You'll probably want some exposure. The Lions are improving against the pass, though. They were on pace to be the worst pass defense since 2000 earlier in the year, but they're up to 13th since Week 7 by our metrics.
Still, the Saints have the highest implied total of the week at just shy of 30 points, and we have to try to crack the receiver code. In their past five games, Brandin Cooks (who was target-less last week) has a target market share of 17.5%. Thomas is at 19.2%, and Willie Snead is at 18.7%. In the red zone, Snead's the guy: 18.2%. Thomas (12.1%) and Cooks (11.8%) are pretty close there.
Thomas leads the team in targets per game, and Snead is second. You can pair any of the three with Brees, but Thomas seems to be the safest, while Snead is probably the sneakiest.
Green Bay Packers
QB: Aaron Rodgers ($8,500)
WR: Jordy Nelson ($7,400)
All right, you got me. This is the third stack, and I've only discussed the three most expensive quarterbacks -- well, Tom Brady is also $8,500 -- but this one should carry low ownership against the Houston Texans while everyone looks to the underpriced Julio Jones and playing-the-Lions-in-New-Orleans Saints.
Rodgers has thrown at least 38 times in eight straight games and has topped 23 FanDuel points in six straight. The Texans are 6th against fantasy quarterbacks this season but 21st in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play since Week 7.
You can also save some cash by taking Davante Adams, but Nelson has a 25.7% target market share in his past three compared to 15.4% for Adams. They're pricey, but it's looking like ownership will be lower than it should here, and that's always something to take a chance on.
Seattle Seahawks
QB: Russell Wilson ($7,700)
TE: Jimmy Graham ($6,400)
Wilson let down a lot of people last week. After posting 24 or more FanDuel points in three straight games, he mustered just more than 12 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This week, though, his Seattle Seahawks host the Carolina Panthers. Luke Kuechly hasn't been cleared from concussion protocol yet, and the Panthers already rank just 23rd against fantasy quarterbacks on FanDuel.
Pairing Wilson with Graham, who has an 18.6% target market share in his past five games, against a thinned out linebacking group should get you access to plenty of production over the middle, as well as potential rushing upside from Wilson. Plus, they might have a little extra incentive after being down 31-0 at halftime to these Panthers last year in the divisional round of the playoffs.
