Week 3 NFL FanDuel Stacks: Don't Forget About Michael Floyd
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's TJ Hernandez, a quarterback's top receiver has a moderately strong correlation to the quarterback's performance -- and his tight end and second receiver aren't too far behind.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while being under-owned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 3 -- if we ignore the Monday night game between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, which isn't on FanDuel's main slate?
Indianapolis Colts
QB: Andrew Luck ($8,700)
WR: Phillip Dorsett ($6,000)
Phillip Dorsett was setting up to be a way to gain contrarian exposure to the Indianapolis Colts' offense this year, but with Donte Moncrief out of the picture, Dorsett steps right up into the spotlight. He's a bargain on FanDuel at $6,000 against the San Diego Chargers in the only game of the main slate (so, excluding Monday Night Football) with an over/under higher than 47.5 points. It's at 51.5.
T.Y. Hilton will draw the attention of Jason Verrett, who played a big part in shutting down Allen Robinson last week, so Dorsett should get some extra looks from Andrew Luck. It's either that or the tight end combination of Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle. Either way, Luck stacks well with Dorsett or Allen, and this also lets you target Travis Benjamin from the other side of the game to take advantage of a potential game script that features the Colts leading and the Chargers playing catch-up. It won't be a very under-the-radar place to look, but there are ways to get unique with your exposure to these two passing offenses.
Arizona Cardinals
QB: Carson Palmer ($8,200)
WR: Michael Floyd ($6,900)
Speaking of not surprising anyone but being unique, isn't it about time for a Michael Floyd week? I'm not relying on the "he's due" narrative, but the Arizona Cardinals are playing the Buffalo Bills, who are coming off an island game on Thursday night in Week 2. That island featured a volcanic eruption from the New York Jets' offense, leading to 36 points.
Buffalo actually enters the game ranked 25th against the pass, per our metrics, and 14th against the run, but anyone and everyone has to be taking note of what Larry Fitzgerald has been doing. He has five targets from inside the 10-yard line, and no other player has more than three. He's the acting tight end in a top-three offense, per our metrics.
Floyd has been on the field for 86% of Arizona's offensive snaps but ranks bottom six in catch rate, yards per target, and target market share. That's concerning, but with John Brown's lack of involvement, it's Floyd we should be looking to if wanting to stack Carson Palmer with someone other than Fitzgerald. Among 61 receivers with at least 12 targets so far, Fitzgerald ranks just 24th in Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per target. He's not playing like a guy who should have three touchdowns.
Of course, Floyd's 0.65 Reception NEP per target is about as average as possible, though it's hindered by his 38.46% catch rate. He's been on the field a lot but has been underperforming -- while Fitzgerald has over-performed. If that corrects in Week 3, you'll want Floyd on your squad.
Green Bay Packers
QB: Aaron Rodgers ($8,900)
WR: Jordy Nelson ($8,300)
Something isn't quite right with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense, which is worrisome. But in a daily fantasy format, it's something to target. Among 36 quarterbacks with at least 10 drop backs, Rodgers ranks 30th in Passing Success Rate and 27th in Passing NEP per drop back. Rodgers hasn't thrown for 300 yards since Week 10 of last season (against the Detroit Lions), and it took him 61 attempts. Well, these same Lions are 7.5-point underdogs against the Packers this week, and they rank 26th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play so far this season through two games.
For as bad as Rodgers has been, he's still scored 18.42 and 23.56 FanDuel points in his two contests.
Jordy Nelson, meanwhile, has played on 87.1% of Green Bay's offensive snaps, scored in each game (and has 15 touchdowns in his past 17 games), and has seen 3 targets from inside the 10-yard line. He's got a rough individual matchup against Darius Slay, making this an even less appealing matchup on paper. That, though, makes it a likely low-owned stack with upside that should be able to match any other two-man stack in Week 3.
New York Giants
QB: Eli Manning ($7,700)
WR: Sterling Shepard ($6,500)
The Miami Dolphins' matchup against the Cleveland Browns is generating a lot of buzz for Ryan Tannehill ($7,700), and Eli Manning (also $7,700) and the New York Giants blew a perfect chance last week against the Saints. Marcus Mariota ($7,400) is facing the very leaky Oakland Raiders' secondary, and Joe Flacco ($7,600) gets the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Not many people will be looking to Manning, but his 57.53% Passing Success Rate is the only mark above 55% (aside from Matt Ryan's 58.44%), and good things are going to come along with that. Josh Norman is going to give Odell Beckham some trouble, but Manning can look elsewhere in this matchup -- to either Sterling Shepard or Victor Cruz.
Further, Rashad Jennings is nursing a thumb injury, meaning Shane Vereen could see more attempts out of the backfield. A lot is going in Manning's favor, and nobody wants to roster him after last week.
