7 Overvalued Players in Fantasy Football Drafts

For many fantasy footballers, draft day is nigh. Those of us who’ve spent the summer wading into the depths of MFL10’s have ridden multiple roller coasters of ADP (average draft position) changes of some of our favorite targets based on injuries, coach-speak, camp performance, and more.

But now, with the conclusion of the third round of preseason games, where most teams’ guaranteed starters saw their final action before showtime, ADP’s have (for the most part) crystallized.

Value is a relative term in fantasy football. If you value a player higher than expert consensus, well, by all means don’t be afraid to jump a round ahead of their current ADP to ensure you get them. In fact, I put together a list of players who fit this very criteria for me last week.

But some players are going far in advance of relative expected production among their positional cohorts in terms of ADP.

To that end, we’re here to help you weed out those players from your draft list for whom drafters are paying too high a premium for their services.

To do this, I’ll compare players’ positional rankings in terms of ADP versus that of numberFire’s positional rankings in 12-team standard leagues. I’ll also provide some context about the overall abilities of these players using numberFire’s signature metric, Net Expected Points (NEP).

For those unfamiliar, NEP is numberFire’s signature metric for measuring individual player contribution based on performance above-or-under expectation, factoring in down and distance data. You can learn more about NEP by checking out our glossary.

Finally, I’ll also provide some alternative drafting options that offer more bang for your fantasy buck.

So who are fantasy drafters overvaluing less than two weeks away from season kickoff? Let’s find out.

*ADP rankings found at fantasyfootballcalculator.com.