3 DraftKings Bargains for the Divisional Round

Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams

DraftKings Price: $5,500

Projected Points: 19.11

Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.47

Divisional round salaries are very much different this week than they have been in any week in the 2018 season. Pricing creates varying tiers and gaps between the positions, and its very noticeable among the quarterbacks. Jared Goff is interesting on this slate, with recency bias against Goff and the Los Angeles Rams as they've experienced a period of fizzling out offensively.

Goff is priced only $300 more than the cheapest starter on the slate despite being a touchdown favorite with a half-point hook -- which stands out within the sportsbooks -- while also playing at home after a bye week. You won’t find another starter on the slate with a higher implied team total outside the two MVP candidates at the top in Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes. The Rams are implied for 28.25 points against the Dallas Cowboys.

The knock and narrative against Goff came against a period in which the team faced defenses that could create tremendous pressure and collapse the pocket on the young quarterback. That shouldn’t be much of an issue this week with the Cowboys, who are 27th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, with 2.4 sacks per game generated in 16 regular season contests.

Goff closed the season with a 68% completion percentage on 8.3 yards per attempt, throwing for five touchdowns and no turnovers during that two-game span. Yes, the Rams did close out the season with two weak opponents, which makes it hard to buy into his improvement over that span, but for that reason he makes a good tournament play as DFS players will dismiss his overall body of work. The last two starts are not far off from his seasonal averages of a 65% completion percentage, 8.3 yards per attempt and a 6% touchdown rate.

The third-year signal caller also fares much better in his home stadium, where he has very significant splits. Per the RotoViz game splits app, Goff averages 6.56 more fantasy points at home than on the road under coach Sean McVay. Those averages also have him over 300 yards, which is beneficial toward hitting the yardage bonus on DraftKings.

It’s tough to pay further down than Goff, who has a resume full of ceiling games and finds himself in a buy-low opportunity.