NCAAB

The 5 Best Offenses in This Year's NCAA Tournament

Will Duke's offense be enough to carry them through the tournament?

Who doesn't like offense in basketball? Many games can be drawn out and somewhat boring in a defensive struggle -- many fans will tune out a game like that.

If you want a 90-87 thriller, than this is the article for you, as we'll rank the top-five offenses in the tournament this year. I'll highlight what each team does well, their star player and one thing each offense could improve on to stay alive in the tournament.

We'll be ranking each team by our offensive efficiency metric, which refers to the percentile that a team's falls into. (Each team falls into the 99th percentile, so I'll be fine-tuning with other metrics to rank these five offenses.)

Want to know who will surprise, who will bust out, and who will take the tournament? Check out our bracket picks, our game simulator, and more!

Check It Out

5. Stephen F. Austin

Offense Percentile: 99.5%

What They Do Well:
Stephen F. Austin is an underrated teams this year, but they drew the short straw and got placed into a matchup with an even more underrated team in Utah. But maybe the Lumberjacks can cut the Utes down to size by scoring in bunches, the biggest strength coming into the tournament. Stephen F. Austin ranks fourth in the tournament (and ninth in the nation) in points scored, averaging 79.45 points per game. This is one team you don't want to get into a shootout with.

Key Player:
Stephen F. Austin relies on Jacob Parker and Thomas Walkup for the scoring, but Walkup is the key player for this team, as he ranks in the top 20 in the nation in five different categories: 20th in PER (29.3), 13th in Offensive Rating (129.8), 13th in Offensive Win Shares (4.6), 16th in total Win Shares (6.5) and 7th in Win Shares per 48 minutes.

What to Improve On:
While Stephen F. Austin can score with anyone and they shoot the ball very well, of the teams in the tournament, the Lumberjacks rank 62nd in turnovers, averaging 14 a game. They do like to run the floor, placing 76th in adjusted pace, but against better competition, that could cost them a game when they need it most. If they can limit their mistakes, they might make noise in the tournament this year.

4. Wisconsin

Offense Percentile: 99.7%

What They Do Well:
Yes, the Badgers have one of the best offenses in the tournament according to our offensive efficiency ranks, the first of three teams at the 99.7 percentile. Basketball offenses in the Big 10 are similar to offenses in college football: slow and plodding. Wisconsin's offense is the fifth slowest in the country, and the third slowest in the tournament. But being slow isn't always a bad thing -- in this case, it helps the Badgers limit their turnovers as they have the fewest among all teams in the Big Dance, with 7.41 per game.

Key Player:
Senior center-forward Frank Kaminsky was Mr. Do-It-All for the Badgers this year, leading the team in points, rebounds, assists and blocks, all while being tied for second in steals per game. Kaminsky is also the only player to rank in the top 20 in the nation in both Offensive and Defensive Win Shares. It doesn't stop there though -- Kaminsky has a 35 PER (1st), 8.5 Win Shares (1st) and a .313 ws/48 (1st).

What to Improve On:
For the pace Wisconsin plays at and as well as they shoot, this is one team that could struggle to score more than 75 points on a nightly basis. The only scored more than 80 in nine games and only reached 90 in two of them. High-powered offenses could cause this team to struggle as the supporting cast around Kaminsky may not be all that reliable.

3. Duke

Offense Percentile: 99.7%

What They Do Well:
The Blue Devils are one of three teams to land exactly in the 99.7 percentile, thanks in large part to their True Shooting (factoring in free throws and two- and three- pointers) and Effective Field Goal percentages (eFG%). Of the tourney teams, Duke ranks fourth in both categories with a 59.4 TS% and a 56.9% eFG%. They are also just one of two teams in the tournament to average over 80 points a game this season -- this offense will be tough for almost any defense to shut down.

Key Player:
Who doesn't want to watch Jahlil Okafor? The freshman center has been a big reason why Duke has been so strong, and there's little defenses can do to stop him as he puts up a near double-double on a nightly basis. Behind his 17.7 points per game, he has one of the best eFG% in the country at 66.9%. Being a center obviously plays to his advantage here, but if we look at the Player Efficiency Ratings (PER), Okafor comes in at 31.2, sixth in the nation and the third best in the tournament.

What to Improve On:
It's hard to actually nitpick the Blue Devil offense, but one area that could use a boost to carry them through the tournament is their three-point percentage. They're not horrible, shooting 38.6% on the year, but if defense do collapse on Okafor, the team's outside game could become key. If that doesn't pick up on an off night for Okafor, the Blue Devils will be in a lot of trouble.

2. Gonzaga

Offense Percentile: 99.8%

What They Do Well:
The Bulldogs have the sixth-highest scoring average (79.12 points per game) on the season, and are one of two tourney teams to have a True Shooting percentage above 60% (61.1%). They also hold the best Effective Field Goal percentage (eFG%) in the tournament at 58.9%, thanks to being the second-best three-point shooting team in the tournament at 40.8%. Some teams will live and die by the three, but Gonzaga's percentages indicate that can score from anywhere on the court.

Key Player:
Junior Kyle Wiltjer and senior Kevin Pangos have been the key cogs for this Bulldog team, but the keys to the car lie with Wiltjer. He has been the leading scorer for the team with 16.7 points per game, while Pangos has been more of the distributor for the Bulldogs. Wiltjer has been one of the best players in the nation ranking within the top-20 in the nation in Offensive and Total Win Shares, as well as the 7th best PER (31.0), which is also the fourth best in the tourney and only 5 points behind Kaminsky.

What to improve on:
If Duke was hard to find a weakness, Gonzaga is almost impossible on the offensive side. But while the Bulldogs aren't perfect from the field, they do miss shots and are sometimes lacking in the rebounding category. They pull down a respectable 37.85 boards per game, but against teams with size inside, they could end up struggling

1. Notre Dame

Offense Percentile: 99.9%

What They Do Well:
Gonzaga and Notre Dame would be two excellent teams to see play each other, though that would require a meeting in the national championship. Both teams have excellent shooters, as the Fighting Irish lead the Bulldogs by just 0.4% in TS% and are just behind them in eFG% by 0.3%. They aren't as good as Gonzaga from three-point land, but they have the ammunition to get in a shootout if necessary.

Key Player:
Senior guard Jerian Grant has proven to be just as valuable of a player as Wisconsin's Kaminsky, as they both have a 5.7 Offensive Win Share for the respective teams. Grant does have the luxury of sharing the scoring load when necessary, but is even better as the distributor. His 6.6 assists per game is the seventh-best average in the country and he is the sixth-best player in the country with 7.1 total Win Shares.

What to improve on:
If there's a weakness, Notre Dame may rely a little too heavily on the three. As Ed Feng pointed out, that could be a reason they get bounce in the tournament.