4 Under-the-Radar Daily Fantasy Basketball Plays for 3/28/16
If you have played daily fantasy sports for very long, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field and find players that you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
It’s a lot easier in NFL to identify the players who will be low-owned due to Thursday Night slates, but NBA can be much more difficult if you aren’t an experienced player.
The purpose of this article will be to bring you my favorite high-upside players at each position that will likely go overlooked and give you an edge.
Keep in mind when constructing rosters that these are contrarian picks. There is a reason that they will be overlooked by many; they are risky plays. If possible, I’d try to relegate these players to GPP-only use, where their high risk-reward styles make more sense.
Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets
FanDuel Price: $8,100
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Brook Lopez has performed excellently over his past three games, averaging 41.5 FanDuel points per game, but he draws a matchup with the Miami Heat tonight. Couple that with the fact that center has several viable options, and Lopez is likely to go overlooked.
Why You Should Use Him:
While most think of a matchup with the Heat as imposing, Miami has actually struggled to defend the post this season, allowing the most points per possession and the highest field goal percentage in the post, which creates an actionable advantage in DFS.
Lopez leads the NBA in points in the post and has averaged 21.3 points on 55.1 percent shooting in three previous meetings with Miami this season.
I prefer Lopez on DraftKings, where he is severely underpriced, but he makes for a nice tournament play regardless of the site.
Jeff Teague, PG, Atlanta Hawks
FanDuel Price: $6,300
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
The Hawks didn't even notice that Jeff Teague wasn't on the bus. Do you really think daily fantasy players will take notice of him tonight with Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, Damian Lillard, and Isaiah Thomas on the slate? Not to mention other popular point guard plays such as Ricky Rubio and Juan Jose Barea. Teague will likely go overlooked despite a terrific matchup against Derrick Rose and the Bulls.
Why You Should Use Him:
Teague has played well recently, averaging 29.2 FanDuel points in 31 minutes per game over his past four.
While his recent performance is encouraging, a matchup with Chicago is what really makes Teague enticing tonight. The Bulls have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards among teams in action tonight, according to our Matchup/Game Composite Tool. Their struggles are largely due to the individual effort of Rose, who ranks 82nd among 84 qualified point guards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
In three previous meetings with Chicago this season, Teague has averaged 33.6 FanDuel points despite playing just 28 minutes per game.
Again, Teague is priced more conservatively on DraftKings, but he is an excellent play on both sites, as he possesses 35-plus FanDuel point upside tonight.
Zach LaVine, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
FanDuel Price: $6,100
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Zach LaVine is coming off of a 3-of-11 shooting and 12 FanDuel point performance against the Jazz. Hopefully recency bias is in effect tonight. Ricky Rubio and Karl-Anthony Towns are likely to steal a lot of ownership from LaVine within his own team, too.
Why You Should Use Him:
In the six games prior to his stinker against Utah, LaVine averaged 30.3 FanDuel points in 39.5 minutes per game. While his performance against Utah can't just be ignored, it was the worst possible matchup for LaVine. Utah has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing shooting guards and plays at the slowest Pace in the NBA.
Unsurprisingly, LaVine is at his best as a scorer when he's in transition. His 276 transition points easily leads the Timberwolves and is 15th among all NBA players. Among shooting guards with at least 150 transition shot attempts, only Klay Thompson has a higher transition points per possession.
The Suns have been the worst team at defending in transition this season, which I chronicled in the first part of my "Matchups That Fit" series.
In three other games against Phoenix this season, LaVine has averaged 30.9 FanDuel points on 56 percent shooting. He was able to up those numbers in just 27 minutes per game, so it is scary to imagine the numbers he could put up with the playing time he has received recently.
Mason Plumlee, C, Portland Trail Blazers
FanDuel Price: $5,300
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Mason Plumlee has posted back-to-back performances with fewer than 25 FanDuel points and is part of a very deep center player pool. Specifically, Kosta Koufos will likely draw ownership off of Plumlee as a more attractive value play at $1,500 less.
Why You Should Use Him:
Plumlee has benefited from the absence of Meyers Leonard recently, averaging 28.7 FanDuel points in 27.3 minutes per game over his past six contests. Per statmuse.com, those numbers are pretty much right in line with the 29.1 FanDuel points and 29.1 minutes Plumlee has averaged in 13 games without Leonard.
Plumlee saw fewer minutes in Portland's last game against a small-ball Sixers team that featured small forward Jerami Grant at center for 17 minutes. Against a much larger frontcourt featuring Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein, Plumlee will likely be called upon to play heavier minutes.
After Phoenix, Sacramento has been the worst team when it comes to transition defense. That shouldn't be surprising, considering they play at the fastest Pace in the league and boast the 24th-ranked Defensive Efficiency.
Plumlee has been one of the most effective big men in transition this season. In fact, only DeMarcus Cousins and Al Horford have more transition points among centers, which is surprising considering Plumlee only averages nine points per game.
Expect Plumlee to be very productive in what should be an uptempo game against Sacramento. At his price and ownership, he makes one of the most interesting contrarian center options on the slate.
