NBA

2016 NBA Three-Point Shootout Analytics: Who's the Favorite?

Brett Oswalt  —  @bRo14thekid Feb 12th, 2016
Stephen Curry is the hands down best shooter in the league. But will he be the best shooter come Saturday night?

Most people look forward to All-Star Saturday night for one reason: the Slam Dunk Contest.

If you are a big slam dunk fan, this year's field shouldn't disappoint. But if you ask me what I'm most looking forward to, that would be this year's three-point shootout.

Last year, Stephen Curry ran away with the hardware, making 19 straight shots in the championship round on his way to a 27 out of 30 possible points.

In my opinion, last year's field wasn't nearly as competitive as this year's, so Curry's likely to get a run for his money this time around. This year's field includes Curry, Klay Thompson, J.J. Redick, Devin Booker, Kyle Lowry, James Harden, Khris Middleton and lone big man Chris Bosh.

Outside of Curry, it's hard to pinpoint who else is most likely to win based off the eye test throughout the season, but maybe the numbers can give us a better idea.

If you ask the oddsmakers, they favor the Splash Brothers, Curry and Thompson, followed by the returning Redick and the rest of the pack.

What we are going to do is breakdown the contestants by three-point volume, accuracy and situation shooting. Each player will earn a given value, from 8 to 1 (8 being the best), based on their position among all contestants in that area.

Is Steph likely to repeat? Or is there anyone in the field poised to push him for the belt this year?

Volume

Shooter 3PAr 3PM 3PA Score
Stephen Curry 55.0% 245 540 8
J.J. Redick 48.6% 130 273 7
Klay Thompson 46.5% 161 383 6
Kyle Lowry 45.7% 145 370 5
James Harden 41.6% 155 437 4
Devin Booker 35.5% 56 139 3
Khris Middleton 33.1% 104 257 2
Chris Bosh 28.9% 81 222 1


In terms of volume, Curry is far and away the most frequent three-point shooter. He's the only player among the eight to hoist more than half of his shot attempts from downtown and have well over 500 attempts on the season. In fact, Curry has more attempts than Redick and Middleton do combined.

Thompson, Lowry and Harden are the other super high volume shooters from beyond the arc. Bosh and Middleton tend to venture into the midrange while Booker hasn't really had his shot to get shots up prior to the injuries to Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe. The youngster will have his chance tomorrow.

Overall Accuracy

Shooter 3P% eFG% Corner 3P% Score Total
J.J. Redick 47.6% 59.1% 54.2% 8 15
Stephen Curry 45.4% 63.3% 46.7% 7 15
Klay Thompson 42.0% 56.7% 43.4% 6 12
Khris Middleton 40.5% 49.7% 44.8% 5 7
Devin Booker 40.3% 52.2% 46.2% 4 7
Kyle Lowry 39.2% 51.5% 45.7% 3 8
Chris Bosh 36.5% 52.0% 38.6% 2 3
James Harden 35.5% 50.1% 22.5% 1 5


When we get into accuracy, Curry is dethroned by Redick. Of course, Redick has taken way fewer attempts than Curry, but on his nearly 275 attempts, the Clipper guard is leading the league at 47.6% and is deadly from the corners, where he'll get to shoot ten shots from per round. 

On the other end of the spectrum, Harden could find himself at a disadvantage from the corners, as he's struggled to convert from that area of the three-point line.

Catch and Shoot

Shooter 3P% 3PM 3PA Score Total
J.J. Redick 48.8% 101 207 8 23
Stephen Curry 48.1% 116 241 7 22
Kyle Lowry 47.7% 94 197 6 14
Khris Middleton 45.5% 92 202 5 12
Devin Booker 44.9% 44 98 4 11
Klay Thompson 44.5% 142 319 3 15
James Harden 38.9% 63 162 2 7
Chris Bosh 37.4% 79 211 1 4


Again Redick leads the group in accuracy -- this time on catch and shoot opportunities. Redick trails Curry, Thompson and (surprisingly) Bosh in attempts, but he edges out Curry in shooting percentage. This comes as no surprise, as Redick is known for his role coming off screens to get off three-point shots in Doc Rivers' offense.

As I alluded to, Thompson is the highest-volume shooter on catch and shoots. He seems to run off screens endlessly and to utilize his ability to come off the pick and pop in order to create open looks in the Warriors' offensive attack.

Pull Up

Shooter 3P% 3PM 3PA Score Total
Stephen Curry 43.1% 124 288 8 30
J.J. Redick 43.8% 28 64 7 30
James Harden 34.4% 86 250 6 13
Devin Booker 30.8% 12 39 5 16
Kyle Lowry 30.2% 48 159 4 18
Klay Thompson 30.0% 18 60 3 18
Chris Bosh 28.6% 2 7 2 6
Khris Middleton 22.0% 11 50 1 13


Here, we have a little special treatment. Redick managed to edge out Curry by a hair on three-point percentage on pull up jumpers. However, Curry has attempted over 200 more shots of this variety and has still managed to shoot over 43%. His ball-handling skills help to create space and open shots for himself around the perimeter, something he won't be asked to do with a ball rack at his side.

Another thing to note here is the disparity in attempts Harden has taken off the dribble rather than on catch and shoots. This might indicate that Harden could struggle just grabbing balls off the rack and firing them up right away.

Conclusion

Shooter Total Score
Stephen Curry 30
J.J. Redick 30
Kyle Lowry 18
Klay Thompson 18
Devin Booker 16
James Harden 13
Khris Middleton 13
Chris Bosh 6


What we've found out now is that this shouldn't be a runaway for the reigning champion and NBA MVP. Based on this year's numbers, Redick is right there with him. So long as Redick can keep his toes behind the line -- which he's worked on, according to his most recent Vertical Podcast -- he should put some heat on Mr. Curry.

The others all fall into the category of other, as none reach the 20-point threshold, let alone the 30-point one Curry and Redick sit at.

And if I'm being honest, I'm not entirely sure why Bosh was included in this contest. As a big, he does have the ability to step out and hit from the three-point line, but neither the volume nor the accuracy leaves us to believe he can compete in this contest.

We'll just have to wait and see what Saturday night brings when all the lights are on.