NBA Betting Guide: 2020 All-Star Game, 3-Point Contest, Skills Challenge, and Rising Stars
Betting on exhibition games may feel a bit strange, but the NBA's version of the All-Star weekend is a bit unlike what we get in some other sports.
Sure, there are clear outs and dunks and some wild passes, but when things get close at the end of the game, things get good (more on that when we dissect the All-Star Game this year). Based on the teams that Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James picked, we can confidently say that Giannis is out to win. James has elite scorers. What will win out?
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Let's dive into the entire weekend and see what stands out (all odds from NBA odds).
NBA Rising Stars Challenge
Team USA is favored by 4.5 points, and the total is 298.5.
| Rising Stars Challenge | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team World | +4.5 | +148 | 298.5 |
| Team USA | -4.5 | -174 | 298.5 |
Trends:
- Excluding a 121-112 win for Team World in 2015, the average point total has been 296.5. With it, the average total has been 283.8.
- Team World is 3-2 in five contests.
- After three single-digit victories to start the format, Team World won by 31 in 2018 and Team USA won by 17 last year.
Analysis:
Team USA's roster is just loaded, and this is shaping up to be a pretty lopsided affair because Team World is far from 100%.
Luka Doncic has just returned from injury and is also slated to play in the All-Star game, so it's fair to wonder how hard he'll go in this one. RJ Barrett has an effective field goal percentage of 31.9% after a three-week absence, and Rui Hachimura is getting his minutes monitored for the Washington Wizards.
For these reasons, backing Team USA whether to cover (-4.5) or straight up (-174) looks to be the right call. The under is also in play.
Taco Bell Skills Challenge
We have three former champions in the eight-player tournament format: Jayson Tatum (last year), Spencer Dinwiddie, and Patrick Beverley.
| Backcourt | Odds | Frontcourt | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | +380 | Jayson Tatum | +430 |
| Khris Middleton | +430 | Pascal Siakam | +650 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +430 | Domantas Sabonis | +900 |
| Patrick Beverley | +750 | Bam Adebayo | +1200 |
Analysis:
Since adopting the guard/forward tournament split in 2016, frontcourt players have won three of four challenges. It's not uncommon for long shots to win this, but Bam Adebayo has made only four career three-pointers, a component of this competition. Domantas Sabonis is a career 31.7% three-point shooter and is 13 of 58 this season. They'll only need to make a few to win, but their play style doesn't really fit the format.
Beverley did win this contest in the past and has the fastest average speed of any player in the field, followed by Khris Middleton and Pascal Siakam. As for transition performance, Sabonis is in the 26th percentile, and Beverley is actually in the 40th. The best performers are Middleton (71.6) and Siakam (70.7).
We can't get overly bogged down in the data, which isn't fully indicative of what to expect in this format. The best value bets look to be would be Siakam (+650), Beverley (+750), and Middleton (+430).
MTN DEW 3-Point Contest
The MTN DEW 3-Point Contest has a unique twist this year, with two added deep ball zones, which are six feet behind the arc. Makes from there are worth three points. The round time climbs from 60 seconds to 70 seconds.
| Player | Odds | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Harris | +350 | Trae Young | +390 |
| Davis Bertans | +460 | Duncan Robinson | +460 |
| Devin Booker | +500 | Buddy Hield | +700 |
| Devonte Graham | +1200 | Zach LaVine | +1200 |
Analysis:
It can be easy to overanalyze the three-point contest, so that's what I'm going to try to do. If we adjust for the fact that 17 of 27 (63.0%) three-point attempts are from above the break, we don't see a huge shift in weighted three-point percentage per player.
| Player | Raw 3Pt FG% | Adj. 3Pt FG% | Differential | % of 3s From Above Break |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson | 43.8% | 43.6% | -0.2% | 75.2% |
| Davis Bertans | 42.4% | 42.3% | -0.1% | 92.4% |
| Joe Harris | 40.8% | 39.9% | -0.8% | 81.6% |
| Buddy Hield | 38.5% | 38.1% | -0.4% | 81.2% |
| Zach LaVine | 38.5% | 37.5% | -1.0% | 82.1% |
| Devonte' Graham | 37.5% | 37.5% | 0.0% | 93.7% |
| Trae Young | 36.9% | 36.4% | -0.5% | 96.2% |
| Devin Booker | 35.9% | 36.1% | 0.2% | 90.0% |
Percentage-wise, Duncan Robinson leads the field in three-point field goal percentage, which stands even when adjusting for the fact that he has by far the lowest frequency of above-the-break threes in the field. He leads in above-the-break percentage at 43.3%. Only Davis Bertans (42.1%) is also above 37.5% (Joe Harris). Bertans, though, hits at a high rate from above the break and has attempted 92.4% of his threes from there.
Harris has hit 53.6% of his wide-open threes this year, besting everyone in the field (Bertans is second at 46.8%). Robinson has had 75.2% of his threes come on catch-and-shoot opportunities; Bertans (63.3%) is the only other player above 41.0% (Harris). Of note, just 7.9% of Trae Young's threes have come on such plays. That's not to suggest that Young will struggle (he's hit 47.6% of his catch-and-shoot threes), but it's a strength for Robinson and Bertans.
It's easy to love the favorites (Harris and Young), but based on everything -- shot profiles, efficiency, volume, and betting value to be had -- my betting card will start with Buddy Hield (+700), Bertans (+460), and a long shot bet on Devonte' Graham (+1200).
All-Star Game
Team LeBron is a healthy 5.0-point favorite in this one.
| Rising Stars Challenge | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Giannis | +5.0 | +160 | 300.5 |
| Team LeBron | -5.0 | -190 | 300.5 |
Trends and Game Notes:
- This is almost an East/West game based on the rosters.
- The West had won three straight All-Star games before swapping to the team captain format.
- LeBron's teams are 2-0 after beating Stephen Curry 148-145 in 2018 and Giannis 178-164 last year.
- There is a massively different twist to this year's game: every quarter will be played for charity and will start 0-0.
- The fourth quarter will be untimed and played to a set target score with 24 additional points added to the leading team's third-quarter score.
- The past five All-Star games have averaged 339.8 total points.
- Per-quarter, the game has averaged 42.5 points in this span.
- Using that, the game would be roughly 127.5 apiece through three quarters with an additional 24 points set for the fourth quarter to honor Kobe Bryant.
- In that scenario, the winning score would be 151.5, for a total of around 303 combined (but a max of 302 because there can't be a tie).
- Based on the new change to the quarters, we could see less free-flowing offense early on and longer possessions toward the end of each charity-based quarter.
Team Giannis surely sets up as a team that will play tough, but LeBron's squads are 2-0 in this draft format, and there's the unquantifiable impact of playing this one for Kobe. My action is on Team LeBron (-190) and the under.
