NBA Finals Odds Update: Does Our Algorithm Favor the Raptors After Game 3?
Aside from a second-half lapse in Game 2, the Toronto Raptors have been taking care of business in the 2019 NBA Finals.
Yes, the Golden State Warriors are without Kevin Durant, and they lost Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney for Game 3, but Toronto has secured a 2-1 lead through three games. They've done what they needed to do -- for the most part.
We can always play the "what if" game with regards to Game 2 (and even Game 3): What if Kawhi got to that pass that Shaun Livingston snared in the waning seconds? What if Andre Iguodala missed that three with five seconds left? What if the Raptors held off the Warriors and were up 3-0? What if Klay had to play in Game 3 to avoid a 3-0 deficit?
It's fun, sure, but that's not what happened. What happened is the Raptors have a one-game lead with four -- at most -- to play.
What do our algorithms -- and the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook -- have to say about the Finals now?
The New Odds
It's razor thin.
| NBA Finals Odds After Game 3 | numberFire | FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 51.5% | -102 |
| Golden State Warriors | 48.5% | -114 |
It's basically 50/50 no matter how we slice it, and that should yield a fantastic final four (if we see a Game 7) contests. But, our algorithm likes the Raptors as the favorite -- barely.
Despite the algorithm favoring Toronto, FanDuel Sportsbook still has them as the underdog (barely), and the efficient line makes a strong recommendation tough.
As far as Game 4 goes, the statuses of both Thompson and Durant are up in the air, but numberFire Live pegs the Warriors as a 64% favorite, and the moneyline is -235 on them at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Optimism levels surrounding Durant or Thompson will certainly shift things, but even still, our in-depth game projection does initially love action on the over/under, identifying a four-star wager.
