What It Means:

While offense may not have been the biggest need for the Blue Jays, they certainly made an upgrade at shortstop. Reyes has a 0.30 nERD, which is the amount of runs he is contributing over a league-average hitter per game. Tulowitzki has a 1.40 nERD, meaning the Blue Jays are upgrading by 1.10 nERD at the shortstop position. Our projections have Tulo hitting .281/.343/.471 and producing a .347 wOBA for the remainder of the season while Reyes hits .275/.329/.392 and produces a .321 wOBA. Our algorithm now gives the Blue Jays a 13.4% chance to win the division and a 42.6% chance to make the playoffs.