Under-the-Radar Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays for 4/25/16
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to bring you some high-upside players who will likely go overlooked and give you an edge.
Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox
FanDuel Price: $6,900
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
On almost any other slate, Rick Porcello would be a popular option in a matchup against the Braves. With Noah Syndergaard facing the Reds and Madison Bumgarner facing the Padres, though, Porcello likely won't be nearly as highly owned as he should be.
Why You Should Use Him:
Porcello followed up two terrific outings against Toronto's elite offense with nine more strikeouts and another win last week against the Rays. Through three starts, he has a 2.50 SIERA, 0.93 WHIP, 30.8 strikeout rate, and 3.9 walk rate -- all of which would be career bests.
His opponent today, the Braves, have been one of the worst hitting teams against righties over the past two seasons. Atlanta ranked 27th against in wOBA against righties last season, and they haven't been much better this season, ranking 29th in hard-hit rate against righties. They don't strike out much, so we could see Porcello's inflated strikeout rate fall back down to earth tonight, but he's the safest of the cheap starting pitching options on the slate.
Drew Pomeranz, SP, San Diego Padres
FanDuel Price: $6,700
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Similar to Porcello, Drew Pomeranz will go overlooked with Syndergaard and Bumgarner in terrific positions. People will also likely be scared off by a matchup against Madison Bumgarner and the Giants.
Why You Should Use Him:
Pomeranz has been unbelievable in his tenure with San Diego, with a 2.04 ERA and 12.74 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) through his first three starts. This hasn't come out of nowhere, either, as his dominance dates back until August 1st of last season, a span in which he has a 2.31 ERA and 12.23 K/9. Granted, nearly half of those innings came out of the bullpen, but the fact remains that Pomeranz has some nasty stuff and can be a strikeout machine.
Through three starts, he has averaged 46.7 FanDuel points, and is coming off of a 10-strikeout and 62 FanDuel point performance against Pittsburgh. Prior to that game, Pittsburgh had the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against lefties.
His matchup against the Giants is tough, but he will benefit from this game being played at AT&T Park, which is home to the 28th-ranked Park Factor and 30th-ranked HR-Park Factor over the past three seasons.
He could definitely struggle with the Giants, but he has already shown he can perform admirably in tough matchups -- against Pittsburgh and at Coors. He's simply way too cheap, considering his upside.
Mark Reynolds, 1B, Colorado Rockies
FanDuel Price: $3,300
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Rarely do you get a player with a good matchup at Coors underowned, but with several appealing first base options, Mark Reynolds may see lower ownership than he should tonight.
Why You Should Use Him:
The Rockies are projected to score 5.9 runs tonight against lefty Jeff Locke. Locke posted a 4.18 SIERA last season and struggled mightily to contain right-handed batters.
Reynolds has crushed left-handed pitching in his career, posting significant improvements in all areas -- especially his power numbers. It's hard to justify his price on DraftKings, but he is a terrific value on FanDuel.
Ezequiel Carrera, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
FanDuel Price: $3,100
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Most baseball fans are still unfamiliar with Ezequiel Carrera, and with everyone targeting the Coors Field outfielders, Carrera might see lower ownership than he should.
Why You Should Use Him:
Carrera has played exceptionally since taking over as the leadoff man for Toronto, and has 54 FanDuel points in his last two games. He displayed some power last night, too, clubbing his first homer of the season.
Make sure he is still hitting leadoff for Toronto -- but if so, he is a must-play at his salary on DraftKings. The Jays have the highest implied team total of any team not playing at Coors tonight, and a big part of that is their matchup against righty Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzalez has pitched poorly to lefties in his career, which puts Carrera in position to keep putting up big fantasy point totals.
Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners
FanDuel Price: $3,000
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Seager has a .134 batting average this season. With several viable third base plays tonight, there's no way Seager will see high ownership.
Why You Should Use Him:
While Seager has struggled mightily, his batting average has been incredibly unlucky. All of his peripherals point towards him turning it around, and he started his road back to fantasy relevance with a three-run bomb last night.
He's still hitting in the middle of the order for Seattle, and has a chance to be productive tonight against righty Doug Fister. Fister posted a 4.47 SIERA last season, allowing a 40.7 percent fly-ball rate to lefties.
Seager has improved his slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA, and hard-hit rate against righties, while cutting down on his strikeouts and increasing his walks. Seager may be about to go on a hot streak, and you get a chance to buy him at low ownership and price. Just make sure you reserve this pick to tournaments only.
