MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 7/29/15
If you've never played daily fantasy baseball before, it's time to start. Unlike traditional leagues, you're able to select the players you want on that specific day only, giving you a different squad to root for each and every day.
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As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
Top Pitchers
High-Cost Pitcher
Tyson Ross – The best pitchers of the day went during the early slate, leaving few options in the top tier tonight. This is especially true with Clayton Kershaw missing a start. But of the higher-cost pitchers, our algorithm likes Ross most. He'll face a Mets lineup that ranks 26th in wOBA against right-handed pitching, striking out at a 20% clip. Ross has a really strong strikeout per nine rate at 9.68, which gives him upside in the matchup. To go deep in the game, though, he'll have to have control -- his walk rate is pretty bad, and the Mets are average versus right-handers in terms of walk percentage. Overall though, Ross isn't in a bad spot.
Alternative Option: N/A
Cost-Effective Pitcher
Mike Bolsinger – With Kershaw out, Bolsinger will hit the mound in LA against the Athletics. Oakland's a very average team against right-handers, while Bolsinger has been pretty underrated this year, pitching to a 2.79 FIP and striking out over eight batters per nine innings. The game has a low over/under that will likely change with Kershaw not pitching, but don't be surprised if it still hovers around seven runs given Bolsinger's performance this year. At a reasonable price across the industry, our algorithm loves him.
Alternative Option: Lance McCullers
High-Cost Hitters
Brett Gardner – The Yankees have been on a tear, and that should continue tonight in Texas. Gardner faces Colby Lewis, giving him the platoon advantage in the matchup. That's important, because Lewis has handled right-handers far better than lefties, while Gardner now has a .377 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this year. With a high nine run over/under and a near five run team total, Gardner makes a lot of sense at his price point.
Bryce Harper – You'll have to pay up for Harper, as always, but he's in a good spot tonight versus Tom Koehler and the Marlins. We know Bryce can mash right-handed pitching, but Koehler's seen pretty extreme splits himself this year, allowing a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters versus a .265 wOBA versus righties. With some of the Nationals' bats coming back from injury, Harper should be a solid play if you go cheaper at pitcher to save some cap space.
Alternative Option: Josh Donaldson
Cost-Effective Hitters
Adam Jones – Jones really isn't having a terrible year, but there have been stretches of inconsistency which has lowered his price. Tonight the O's get Mike Foltynewicz and his 5.27 ERA (his FIP tells us it's not that bad though). As a result, Vegas likes Baltimore as heavy favorites and to score over 4.5 runs. Though Jones is hitting lefties better than right-handers this year, his career numbers still dictate more of a reverse-splits hitter, which should make you feel comfortable tonight considering he doesn't have the platoon advantage.
Matt Carpenter – Carpenter made the primer yesterday, and he did absolutely nothing. I'm sorry. But his matchup today is better than it was yesterday, and his price dropped throughout the industry. The Cardinals will face Anthony DeSclafani, who's been really bad against left-handed hitting this season, surrendering a .341 wOBA, over 50 points higher than his performance against right-handers. Carpenter isn't seeing the power he did earlier in the year, but tonight -- yes, tonight, not last night -- could help his numbers.
Alternative Option: Carlos Beltran
