Burning Questions: Who Will Make the 2015 MLB Playoffs and Win the World Series?
Each and every year, we go through this process of predicting what we will think will happen in the upcoming MLB season. And each and every year, we prove yet again that we -- humans -- don't know a gosh darn thing.
Baseball is stupidly unpredictable, and there are billions of different ways the season can come out. That uncertainty is part of what makes predictions fun; you can say whatever the heck you want as long as you have a legit reason. That's what we're trying to do here.
We polled the numberFire writing staff to see what they thought would happen this year. Their responses are below, and you can check out what the numberFire algorithms have to say right here. Either way, we know literally nothing because baseball is dope, and we accept that.
We'd like to hear your thoughts, too. Feel free to plop those in the comments section below or to tweet them to @numberFire. I'll give bonus points and cookies to anyone that puts the Twins in the World Series. Just something to keep in mind. Now let's get to it!
John Stolnis's Picks
AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Seattle Mariners
AL Wild Card 1: New York Yankees
AL Wild Card 2: Detroit Tigers
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Central: Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card 1: St. Louis Cardinals
NL Wild Card 2: Miami Marlins
World Series: Los Angeles Dodgers over Boston Red Sox
I wish I could be more creative here, but the truth is the Dodgers and Nationals have the two best starting rotations in the National League and lineups that can put runs on the board. The addition of Max Scherzer to their rotation almost makes the NL East a lock, although L.A. could have a tougher time with the new-look Padres and defending champion Giants in the mix in their division.
In the Central, I went with Pittsburgh over St. Louis, although I think that will be a close race. The Cardinals have the better starting rotation, but that Pittsburgh offense, led by perennial MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, is no joke. Plus, Gerrit Cole could take a huge leap forward this year and become that team's true ace. I gave the Cardinals the wild card because St. Louis is pretty much issued a playoff spot every year now, right? The final wild card spot came down to the Padres and the Marlins for me. I gave the edge to Miami, who I think has the better offense and, once Jose Fernandez returns from Tommy John surgery in mid-season, also gives them a solid rotation.
As for the American League, I weighed my picks heavily on the strength of the starting rotations in each division. I picked Boston to win the East because I still believe they will make a trade for a true ace starter at some point before the trade deadline, most likely Cole Hamels. Sorry, I'm not buying Rick Porcello as the team's number one.
In the Central, I like the youth of Cleveland's rotation, led by Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and young arms Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer. Detroit gets the second wild card spot, but that is a team that appears to be on the decline. The West was a tough call as well, but Seattle improved itself enough in the off-season with the addition of Nelson Cruz, and they have the best starter in the division in Felix Hernandez. The surprise team for me this year is the New York Yankees, who I think will win the top wild card thanks to a finally healthy rotation headed by Masahiro Tanaka, a newly-svelte CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda.
The last two years, I picked the Nationals to win the World Series, but no more. This is the year that the Dodgers finally make the magic happen and beat the Red Sox in six games. Kershaw finally performs well in the postseason and leads the Dodgers to an easy LDS series victory over the Marlins, and then a hard-fought NLCS win over Washington. Boston will get close, thanks to their LDS win over the Yankees and an ALCS victory over Seattle, but in the end, the Dodgers will walk away with their first title since 1988.
Cory Rindone's Picks
AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card 1: Chicago White Sox
AL Wild Card 2: New York Yankees
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Central: Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card 1: St. Louis Cardinals
NL Wild Card 2: San Diego Padres
World Series: Washington Nationals over Los Angeles Angels
The offseason moves made by the Red Sox will propel them from worst to first in 2015, but the starting pitching acquisitions of Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson will prove even more valuable than the big-money bats of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. The Yankees will surprise some by snagging the final wild card berth on the strength of a bounce-back season from CC Sabathia and a finally-healthy Michael Pineda.
Meanwhile, Yoenis Cespedes will provide a lineup boost en route to his first 30 home run season, and Justin Verlander will return to his sub-4.00 ERA ways to create a one-two punch with David Price that combines for 36 wins and leads the Tigers to an AL Central crown in the closest division race in baseball.
The best overall rotation in the AL will keep the White Sox in the hunt and allow them to grab the first wild card berth, with Chris Sale taking home AL Cy Young honors for the first time in his young career, with mid-season call-up Carlos Rodon becoming an immediate impact addition either out of the bullpen or as the fifth starter.
Even a potential Josh Hamilton suspension won't be enough to slow down back-to-back MVP Mike Trout and the Angels, who will take home their second straight division title with the backing of a rotation sparked by AL Rookie of the Year Andrew Heaney.
The rich get richer, as the Washington Nationals add Max Scherzer to an already-stacked starting rotation, leading them to cruise to an NL East title by at least 15 games over the second-place Miami Marlins. The second-best rotation in the NL will reside in Los Angeles, where repeat Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw will lead the Dodgers to their third straight division title.
In the year's best story, NL MVP Andrew McCutchen and newfound ace Gerrit Cole will propel the Pittsburgh Pirates to their first division crown since 1992, edging past the wild card-bound St. Louis Cardinals in the last week of the season. The final spot will go to the offseason-winning San Diego Padres, whose completely revamped offense and James-Shields-led rotation will bring playoff baseball back to San Diego for the first time since 2006. The upstart Marlins and prospect-rich Cubs will be vastly improved, but both are a year away from seriously contending.
With rotation depth rivaling the 1971 Orioles, the Washington Nationals will finally accomplish what the Montreal Expos never could and take home the 2015 World Series in six games over the Los Angeles Angels. All five starters will win 14 games during the regular season, and Antony Rendon will be the breakout offensive star, winning World Series MVP honors along the way. With picks like these, do we really even need to play out the season?
Ari Ross's Picks
AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Seattle Mariners
AL Wild Card 1: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card 2: Detroit Tigers
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card 1: Pittsburgh Pirates
NL Wild Card 2: San Diego Padres
World Series: Washington Nationals over Cleveland Indians
With the acquisitions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, the Red Sox should have more than enough hitting and just enough pitching, especially if they make a run at Cole Hamels, to win the East. In the Central, after 90- and 85-win seasons, the Indians, behind a young and improving rotation led by AL Cy Young Corey Kluber and bounceback seasons from Nick Swisher and Jason Kipnis, the Indians finally get over the hump to win the Central Division crown. Even with a regression from Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have enough pitching to claim a wild card berth. In the AL West, the Angels and Mariners battle it out for the division crown, but the Mariners pull this one out behind Felix Hernandez and one of the better pitching staffs in all of baseball, giving the Angels a wild card spot.
In the NL, behind the two best rotations in baseball, the Dodgers and Nationals win their respective divisions finishing as the two best teams in baseball during the regular season. In the NL Central, a healthy Yadier Molina and Jason Heyward in the outfield gives the Cardinals the nod in the Central. But the Pirates are close behind, earning them the first wild card spot, behind another MVP year from Andrew McCutchen and a breakout season from Gerrit Cole. And after a flurry of offseason moves, the Padres claim the second wild card spot, behind a vastly improved rotation led by free agent aquisition James Shields, who should improve against the NL.
With easily the best rotation in baseball, their pitching staff leads all projected pitching WAR by over two wins, I'm picking the Washington Nationals to represent the National League in the 2015 World Series. The Nationals finally get over that hump with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg leading a stellar rotation. In the AL this pick was much tougher. I'll admit I'm a bit biased towards them, but I'm going with the Cleveland Indians. Many have talked about Cleveland as a sleeper team, similar to the Royals last season, and I'd have to agree. Even with regressions from Kluber and Michael Brantley, the Indians have enough pieces on this young and improving team to put together a run to the World Series.
Michael Stern's Picks
AL East: Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Seattle Mariners
AL Wild Card 1: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
AL Wild Card 2: Baltimore Orioles
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card 1: Pittsburgh Pirates
NL Wild Card 2: Miami Marlins
World Series: Washington Nationals over Detroit Tigers
I love what the Blue Jays did this offseason, adding two impact bats in Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin to a powerful lineup which finished fourth in the majors with a .406 slugging percentage last season. As long as youngsters Dalton Pompey and Marcus Stroman play well, the AL East title should head to the Great White North for the first time since 1993.
In the Central, I think people are underestimating the effect the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes and the return of Jose Iglesias will have on Detroit's offensive and defensive production. Justin Verlander is in decline, but his FIP is not rising at the same rate as his ERA, so he may be due for a bounce-back year.
Out west, Nelson Cruz adds enough much-needed pop to the Seattle lineup that the Mariners should be able to sneak past the Angels and win the division, as long as James Paxton and Taijuan Walker stay healthy. As for wild cards, the Orioles and Angels return most of the key pieces from teams that won more than 95 games last season. While I expect both clubs to regress and struggle to replace the offensive production of Nick Markakis and Howie Kendrick respectively, they both have enough talent to return to the playoffs.
With perhaps one of the best rotations in baseball history, it would be an absolute shock if the Washington Nationals didn't win the NL East. As far as postseason aspirations, Casey Janssen needs to shore up the bullpen and Ryan Zimmerman must replace Adam LaRoche's lineup production before Bryce Harper gets fitted for a ring.
In the Central, I'm not picking against the Cardinals. They've reached the playoffs the last four seasons and 11 of the past 15. The same lineup plus a full year of John Lackey and the return of Michael Wacha equals another division title for the redbirds.
The Dodgers hope they have fixed their corrosive clubhouse, but at the very least the front four of Don Mattingly's rotation can carry this club to another division title. Big things are expected from Joc Pederson, and Joel Peralta has the potential to make the bullpen much better.
As for wild cards, Pittsburgh adds AJ Burnett to a stacked roster and should compete with the Cardinals in the NL central. My sleeper team in the NL is Miami. San Francisco is only good in even-numbered years, and the Marlins have one of the best outfields in baseball. The fish have enough pitching to get by until Jose Fernandez returns from Tommy John, and should snag the NL's second wild card.
As for the World Series, I looked for the team in each league with the best combination of hitting and pitching. In the American League, the Detroit Tigers have both hitters and pitchers with loads of playoff experience, and have enough to reach the Fall Classic in a league full of playoff newcomers. Washington should emerge from the senior circuit as the Nationals have an ever-so-slightly stronger lineup and rotation than the Dodgers. In the Scherzer Series, the newest National (and agent Scott Boras) emerge victorious, as Harper has a breakout post-season and Zimmerman has a clutch October.
Daniel Lindsey's Picks
AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card 1: Seattle Mariners
AL Wild Card 2: Tampa Bay Rays
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Central: Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card 1: St. Louis Cardinals
NL Wild Card 2: Chicago Cubs
World Series: Boston Red Sox over Washington Nationals
The Sox retooled half of their roster -- again -- and shouldn't have too much competition for the AL East. The Angels won't have it as easy, but they have the most talent and should be able to claim the AL West yet again. With the Tigers not having the rotation they once used to, it's hard to believe in them. I'd be willing to bet on the young Indians team this year for the Central. The wild card spots are tough to peg in this league, as nearly everyone has a strong argument to sneak into the playoffs that way. The Tigers and Athletics will provide the most heat on the two spots, but I feel the Mariners and Rays will do enough to find their way in.
The NL is extremely top-heavy this year, making some of these picks relatively easy. The Pirates have a strong enough team again to go deep into the playoffs, and should be able to hold off the pesky Cardinals for the Central Division title. There is absolutely no one that looks to stand in the way of the Nationals, so that's an easy choice for the NL East. The Dodgers should triumph easily in the West as well while the Giants will have a tough time trying to defend their title. Of course the Cardinals will make it in via the wild card -- they're like the Patriots of baseball, never going away. And thanks to the Cubs' offseason moves and young talent coming up through the farm system, I feel they'll take the last wild card spot in what should be a fairly open race.
From the National League, I can't help but think that if the Nationals stay healthy, they'll run through their division and, subsequently, the league playoffs. The Dodgers will do all they can, but the Nationals may have finally reached their full potential. In the American League, I think the Red Sox will pull off their second worst-to-World-Series in just three years. The lineup will be hard to overcome once hitting on all cylinders and while they would be facing a super rotation, I think the Sox will pull off their second title in three years.
Jim Sannes's Picks
AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card 1: Seattle Mariners
AL Wild Card 2: Chicago White Sox
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Central: Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card 1: St. Louis Cardinals
NL Wild Card 2: Miami Marlins
World Series: Los Angeles Angels over Pittsburgh Pirates
Okay, so not even I picked the Twins. Sorry, lame, I know.
The AL was ridiculously difficult to pick for this season. I think teams like Detroit, Toronto and Oakland all have legit chances at winning their respective divisions, yet there just weren't enough spots for all of the solid teams.
As I wrote last week, numberFire's algorithms are really smitten on the Tribe, so I'll bump with them in the Central. Boston's combination of youth and experience is both frightening and thrilling at the same time. Forget Panda and Hanley; Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo are the guys that will decide the fate of the Red Sox. I would feel a lot more certain in picking the Angels if Garrett Richards were fully healthy, but he's supposed to return by mid-April and Matt Shoemaker's stuff was demonic down the stretch last year.
For the wild card slots, Seattle's rotation is too good not to make the playoffs again. Their offense still makes me want to weep a little, but Nelson Cruz should help. For the second slot, I based my selection solely on which team has more players nicknamed "Spanky" because that seems both weird, suggestive and beautiful at the same time. So, the fightin' Adam Eaton's get the nod here. It's also partially because the White Sox might have the best rotation west of the nation's capital and an improved lineup around Jose Abreu... but it's mostly the Spanky thing. If they don't make it this year, they should in 2016 as this is a team built for future success.
Things in the NL were a bit easier. As you can see, each and every one of us here picked the Nationals to win the East and the Dodgers in the West. Bryce Harper finna blow up, and the Dodgers lead numberFire's preseason power rankings. Those two should be the easy favorites in their divisions.
Then you get to the Central. This should be fun. numberFire projects both the Pirates and the Cardinals to win the same number of games. I'm rolling with the Pirates because I can't imagine a team hanging with that offense for an entire 162-game schedule.
My thoughts on the Marlins are similar to the White Sox: if they don't make it this year, then they will next year. When you have three outfielders under the age of 25 that could post 4.0 WAR, you're doing something right. Bringing in Dee Gordon, Martin Prado and Mike Morse can propel this team to the postseason even if Jose Fernandez isn't Jose Fernandez when he makes his return.
For the World Series, the only thing that makes me hesitate on this pick is the rotations of both the Angels and the Pirates. As we saw last year, one grossly unfair starting pitcher can win a World Series. Neither of these teams have one of those guys. But I think they have good enough pitching to let their top-notch offenses carry them. And who wouldn't want to see Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen in the same World Series?
