MLB

5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 8/2/19

Jason Schandl  —  @JasonSchandl Aug 2nd, 2019
Jose Abreu gets the platoon advantage against the struggling Jason Vargas. Which other low-priced bats should you target on Friday?

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers ($3,000)

It may not quite be Coors Field, but Globe Life Park has the second-most hitter-friendly park factor on the slate tonight, and that should be especially pronounced with 97-degree heat in the forecast. Once we add in a matchup with Detroit Tigers southpaw Tyler Alexander, it's easy to see why the Texas Rangers have a strong 6.08-run implied total.

Elvis Andrus has certainly not impressed with his bat this season, sporting a .308 wOBA and .127 ISO. He's been making some really solid contact though, with a 39.0% hard-hit rate and 14.9% soft-hit rate on the season, leading to the highest average exit velocity of his career.

He's also hit southpaws especially well, turning in a 42.7% hard-hit and 10.4% soft-hit rate.

Delino DeShields, OF, Texas Rangers ($2,200)

The Tyler Alexander matchup makes it especially easy to like the Rangers' value bats tonight. Alexander has only pitched 16 1/3 major league innings, so we can't draw many conclusions there, but his much bigger 85-inning sample at the Triple-A level this year was not encouraging. He wasn't quite as bad as his 5.72 ERA might suggest, but a 4.65 xFIP in Triple-A ball is not a good sign when you're taking a step up in competition, especially in the hitter-friendly digs in Texas.

Like Andrus, Delino DeShields doesn't exactly have a reputation as an offensive juggernaut. He's proven himself more than capable against southpaws though, turning in a .332 wOBA and .200 ISO over a small 75 plate appearance sample in 2019. He also offers some nice upside when he does get on base, with at least 20 steals in each of the last two seasons and with 12 already in 2019.

Brandon Crawford, SS, San Francisco Giants ($3,000)

The only better hitters park than Globe Life tonight is the crown jewel of the category. Nothing touches the hitter-friendliness of Coors Field, and this game has a massive 13-run over/under.

The San Francisco Giants' offense is rarely one to get excited about, but at Coors with a matchup against righty Peter Lambert, there is a lot to like. Lambert has only managed a 4.52 SIERA across nine career major league games, and that comes after he posted a 5.04 xFIP in 60 1/3 Triple-A innings in 2019.

Brandon Crawford doesn't put up a ton of fly-balls, but a 30.6% rate against right-handed pitching isn't terrible, especially when paired with his 40.1% hard-hit rate. He makes for an intriguing way to get cheap exposure to the Coors Field upside tonight.

Corey Dickerson, OF, Philadelphia Phillies ($2,600)

Set to rock his new threads for the first time tonight, Corey Dickerson immediately finds himself in a spot in which he can make an impact for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Dickerson has a long history of raking with the platoon advantage. He's never finished a season with an ISO lower than .194 in the split, and even if we take out the three years he spent with Coors as his home park, we see a .334 wOBA and .230 ISO across more than 1400 plate appearances.

Ivan Nova isn't just any right-handed pitcher, either. He has an ugly 5.02 SIERA in his first season with the Chicago White Sox, and he's on pace for his second straight season with an xFIP north of 5.00 against left-handed bats.

Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox ($2,900)

On the other side of that game, Philly's Jason Vargas doesn't offer a much more intimidating matchup.

Vargas struggled to the tune of a 5.08 SIERA across 19 games with the New York Mets before getting sent to the Phillies, and against right-handed bats, he posted an especially poor 5.29 xFIP while getting cracked for 38.1% hard-hits and 45.1% fly-balls.

Jose Abreu is fully equipped to take full advantage of those platoon splits. He has a .352 wOBA and .174 ISO in 115 plate appearances against southpaws this year, and if we go back to include 2018 (up to 230 plate appearances in the sample) we see a .366 wOBA and .215 ISO.

Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.