FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 6/11/19
In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate when they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Each day we will highlight a starter to consider from each pricing tier, and we'll also look at one contrarian play for tournaments. Who should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Priced Option
Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals
at Chicago White Sox
FanDuel Price: $10,300
There are five pitchers clustered closely above $9,000 or more on today's main slate, and of that group, Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals sticks out in the ace tier.
Corbin faces an interleague matchup with the struggling Chicago White Sox, who are last in hard-hit rate (31.3%), fifth-worst in fly-ball rate (33.5%), and fourth-worst in strikeout rate (25.4%).
Among the regular starters on the main slate, Corbin ranks fourth in strikeout rate (26.7%), and his team is a heavy favorite (moneyline -186), so a win could be coming.
If paying up for pitching is where you're headed, peep Corbin.
Mid-Priced Option
Martin Perez, Minnesota Twins
vs Seattle Mariners
FanDuel Price: $8,200
The mid tier is a bit of an odd one tonight, as there are only four pitchers priced between $8,000 and $8,900. If you want to operate in this space, you'll need to do it wisely.
With Kenta Maeda (Los Angeles Angels) facing a team that's pretty challenging to strike out, Martin Perez of the Minnesota Twins looks to be in the best spot to cruise to victory.
After posting consecutive years of middling strikeout rates in the teens, Perez has jump-started things in 2019 with a 21.1% this season, and he's lowered his hard-hit rate all the way down to 32.6%. Even though that rate isn't the most impressive, he faces a Seattle Mariners team that strikes out the third most in baseball (25.4%).
A few starts ago, Perez posted a 48-point effort against these same Mariners, so if you want to pivot down to a cheaper option, consider the Twins lefty.
Low-Priced/Contrarian Play
Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves
vs Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel Price: $7,300
Projected for the fourth-highest FanDuel score on the main slate, Mike Foltynewicz and his 5.89 ERA could leave you scratching your head a bit as you read that projection. So what gives?
Let's examine Folty's numbers on a deeper dive. While his strikeout rate is down to 19.5% this season, his swinging-strike rate currently sits at a career-high 12.3%. A 4.56 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) shows that he hasn't pitched like Cy Young, but a 64.9% strand rate shows he's throwing far better than the traditional metrics would suggest.
He also gets to attack a Pittsburgh Pirates offense that is not strong. The Buccos clock in 20th in team wOBA (.307), fifth-worst in hard-hit rate (34.4%), and second-worst in fly-ball rate (30.9%).
Fire in a home date at SunTrust Park, which ranks 24th in home run factor, and you could have an explosive evening from a very affordable pitching option.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
