5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 5/30/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Asdrubal Cabrera, 3B, Texas Rangers ($2,800)
The Texas Rangers boast a slate-high 5.38-run implied total tonight as they take on Jake Junis and the Kansas City Royals.
They're playing in the hitter-friendly confines of Globe Life Park on what projects to be a warm night. Junis is on pace for a career-worst 4.67 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) over 11 games this season, bringing his career-average over three years in the majors to 4.26. The 42.2% hard-hit rate he's allowing is also right in line with last year's 41.0%.
Asdrubal Cabrera has a middling .311 wOBA on the year, but that comes with only a .241 BABIP. He's making great contact (38.8% hard-hits, 44.6% fly-balls), and that's reflected in a solid .211 ISO. With favorable park and weather conditions and a matchup with a hitter that allows plenty of hard-contact, this is a prime spot for Cabrera to show off that power.
Rougned Odor, 2B, Texas Rangers ($2,700)
Right back to the Rangers, those 40% hard-contact seasons have seen Junis be especially vulnerable against left-handed bats, allowing a .335 wOBA on a 41.3% hard-hit and 35.9% fly-ball rate.
Rougned Odor isn't a high-floor fantasy option by any stretch, with a .248 wOBA and 33.7% strikeout rate on the year. Like Cabrera though, his power more than makes up for that.
He's sporting a 36.5% hard-hit rate and 47.3% fly-ball rate on the year, which leaves his .205 BABIP unsustainably low, especially when compared to last year's .305 and his career-average .276.
He's rocked right-handed pitchers for an ISO of at least .200 in each of the last four seasons, and this power-friendly spot makes his upside well worth stomaching some risk to get in your lineup.
Chris Taylor, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,600)
The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is another one worth a long look tonight, with the second-highest implied total (5.17 runs) on the slate against New York Mets southpaw Jason Vargas.
Vargas owns a career 4.54 SIERA, and the 36-year-old is off to an especially rough start to 2019, with a 5.51 SIERA and an 11.1% walk rate that is on pace to be his worst since 2006. He's also allowing a massive 49.0% hard-hit rate with a 43.5% fly-ball rate.
Chris Taylor is no stranger to beating up on southpaws, with a .351 wOBA and .233 ISO in the split this season, bringing him to a .341 wOBA and .198 ISO on a 35.9% hard-hit and 40.1% fly-ball rate in 433 plate appearances against lefties since 2017.
Eric Thames, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers ($2,300)
Usually, a serious power threat, Thames' .168 ISO in 2019 is uncharacteristically concerning. He's actually making some of the best contact of his career though, with career-bests in both hard-hit (49.3%) and soft-hit (10.4%) rates, and a 40.3% fly-ball rate. The last two seasons both saw him top a .260 ISO against right-handed pitching, and with his contact especially good in that split in 2019 (50.9% hard-hits), we can expect his production to pick up.
His .324 wOBA in the split (and .339 overall) isn't anything to scoff at either -- it's a low number for Thames, but a high number for a typical hitter priced only $300 above the minimum.
He has the platoon advantage tonight against Joe Musgrove, who has allowed a career .332 wOBA to left-handed bats, making this an easy spot to like while Thames is so cheap.
Eduardo Nunez, 3B, Boston Red Sox ($2,100)
Going even cheaper, Eduardo Nunez' near-minimum price-tag makes sense, considering he's sporting an egregious .210 wOBA and almost-inexistent .067 ISO in 2019. He's also only got a .230 BABIP though, with 4.0% of his fly-balls turning into home runs. Those are so far below his career-averages (.302 and 7.5%) that we can expect some serious regression though.
Nunez also tends to be a ton better against southpaws, and while he's only made 41 plate appearances in the split this year, he did top a .315 wOBA against them in two of the last three seasons.
Admittedly, those still aren't exactly jaw-dropping numbers, but he's so cheap that they make him more than viable in tonight's matchup with J.A. Happ, who has an awful 5.03 xFIP, giving up a .360 wOBA on a 41.2% hard-hit rate to left-handed bats on the year.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
